legritter
-
Posts
1,942 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
2
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by legritter
-
-
The Gfs 00z shows the weather becoming warm across the south of the uk through the end of october and the first week of november with max temps in the south easily reaching 18 / 19 c and a few spots in the s / se could reach 70 f in the next 7-10 days so early november looks like being remarkably warm in the south for the time of year. This run is dominated by the Euro High and largely fine conditions further south and east with unsettled and breezier weather mainly restricted to the far north and west but it's the warmth across the south which is the most impressive aspect of this and other output this morning with temperatures well above the seasonal average across southern britain.
JUst about to post similar ,yes very mild if not record breaking temperatures over the coming week or so going on current charts ,perhaps still a question mark on the location of high pressure towards the end of todays later forecast models .
of course if you are stuck under thick cloud not so good but in any brighter spells the BBQS could very well wake up and rattle away hoping for a sizzzle up ,cheers
-
2
-
-
Not boring? A big HP sat there doing nothing and keeping the british isles relatively calm.......thats boring legritter.
Yes i agree if it sat there for ages that would warrant being boring for some ,but i was referring to the fact that its where we go from there ,Remember two years ago when we had very boring charts forecast for ages then Bingo along came storms and bucket full of rain ,Thats what makes our forum tick ,so perhaps boring but with a twist of [The unknown],cheers
-
5
-
-
I backed up what I said with charts and have a look at some of the posts following mine, the Euro high is here to stay for the foreseeable keeping us in a mild flow.
Yes certainly looks like a mild outlook on todays charts ,some high temp for late oct /early november but i am of the old school in the fact that Mother nature could swing the other way [no guarantee of course ] all very interesting stuff though certainly not boring and plenty to discuss on our forum .
i,m going to take full advantage of our weather as things could change in a few weeks ,cheers
-
6
-
-
Again, another exceptionally mild chart for early November, with GFS going for 19C on the south coast, and the mid-teens elsewhere. The November temperature record is 21.7C in Prestatyn, set on 4 November 1946.
Nice to see it potentially under threat!
And of course followed by an extreme snowy winter ,just a thought but anything could be lurking around the Meteorological corner ,warmest winter on record ,Wettest on record !driest ,coldest ,snowiest and just boring old average .
or perhaps an ice age yes please bring it on .
-
5
-
-
GFS very different this evening from day 11 , with a big scandy ish high setting up - I'm guessing the fact it is day 11 makes it pretty unreliable and no doubt won't be there in the next run
thats whats so interesting looking at 10/11 days ahead ,Theres a reason its showing so lets keep an eye out .
bUt at that range any model i would take with a pinch of salt ,some long range chatter Met of further outlook talks of colder continental air possibly paying us a visit ,but certainly at the moment typical autumn fayre although i have not yet set eyes on tonights ECM ,cheers gang
-
1
-
-
very interesting weather patterns showing on todays charts in the longer outlook .
As nick sussex points out the UK could become a Battle zone , which will make for some interesting discussions on our forums and hopefully a few more posters will join in ,i,m realy looking forward to the coming Months ,who knows what mother nature will cook up this winter ,some interesting things happening now across the northern hemisphere lets hope it can be the same as we progress .
Well i,m going to Dust off my weather journals have a good read get out the pack of straws ,pram out from the garage check the prozack supply and rig up the winter halogen light for flake spotting ,IS frosty in hibernation i miss those colourfull charts .
-
8
-
-
Well model output as just got very interesting ,and i,m sure its going to get a whole lot more interesting .
I think the 8/10 day period could go any way but it looks like an area of high pressure will be very critical as to what weather we get at the surface but my glass is certainly half full with current charts ,news worthy weather i think somewhere in europe as if as i expect our low next week could slip south east but no guarantee .
-
1
-
-
well certainly something of cheer in tonights charts ,but being at such a range there will be many twists and turns .
but certainly some interesting weather possibly over the horizon and of course now being modeled some cold air coming south ,i feel plenty on here will be happy that we hopefully could see some action weather if at least a bit more mobility possible .Couldn,t help but thinking today with our current set up if it was january ,cold and overcast then a bit of fine dusty stuff in the air before the sun came out ,just a thought ,cheers gang .
-
Certainly looking like a break down come later next week ,but i think the full fury of the Atlantic will be kept at bay for some time yet .high pressure looks to be dominant ,but its exact location hard to pin down .I suppose the next few days could throw up some more detail but things are slow moving at the moment ,anything of note and action seems to be taking place away from our Shores at present .
Come on gang its time for a Stella or two ,winter will soon grace our computers [hopefully ] .
-
1
-
-
Some very interesting possibilitys now creeping in to the longer range charts ,and as others have said quite knife edge stuff .
If we take GFS as gospel we could get an early shot at something wintry but all IFS but possibilitys and thats what we need to get the party under way ,very early days yet but some excitement which i,m sure we all need for discussion
-
- Popular Post
- Popular Post
while things are fairly quiet on here I would like to say yet again that we have one of the best forums for Meteorology in my opinion on this planet ,I cant of course comment on any other forum on some distant planet in another solar system ,which probably the posters get excited when a temperature of plus 10 c comes along and which also have access to several long range computer models .Back to our planet and it certainly looks like a very slow pattern could be around for a while yet ,but certainly some signs on pressure eventually falling to our west but the outlook looks very muddy at present .I am eagerly now awaiting some mobility as this could make the weather more interesting ,of course a nice block to our north could do the same thing , but apart from usuall charts we only have a crystal ball ,to be honest i would hate any model that produced dead accurate charts at the 10 day or 15 day range ,how boring ,something more accurate than JO Laminate ,cheers gang
-
20
-
morning all ,read several years ago a very interesting article about the winter of 1939/40 and i,v just found some papers published from several sources ,i found it very interesting reading .There as been many articles over the years pertaining to this winter and the fact that it was the first severe winter for a very long time ,also touted as the coldest in the last previouse 100 years .As you are all aware it was the first year of the war and many meteorological scientists after the war put this winter down to the war itself .
if you fancy a read please type in on google ,The extreme winter of 1939/40 and climate research .
I do have my own views on this winter but i think the article is interesting .
Hope someone finds it of interest .
cheers a;ll .
-
1
-
-
From a personal point of view yes some good signs ,of a possible real winter being on the cards but as usual Mother nature will Deliver what she is able IF the atmosphere is in the right state .I,m pretty sure that the northern hemisphere will see some cracking synoptics but here in the UK we have to see some real good areas of high pressure setting up shop to our north [in general ]a weak AZores high and low pressure systems to our south in general ,of course at present there are some good looking charts about so perhaps this is a hint of whats over the horizon and i am liking whats currently showing across the arctic .
I suppose if you take things what are happening in Nature to be a sign and there are loads of weather lores out there one could feel comfy that a cold winter is on the cards but in reality we all know that winter is six weeks away thats about 85 runs of ECM and 170 of GFS so many charts to come but its great that we are able to follow our hobby all sharing and learning on this great internet and its great that we could be looking at some sort of interesting winter period ,sharpen up the knives tidy up the prams out with the proZack ,ban all the wind up merchants ,stock up on cans and bread and dont forget the STellas
-
7
-
-
A little bit of something for everyone .
Some snow for all ,[including south of M4 Corridoor ] some penetrating frosts ,Thick freezing fog ,horizontal rain ,hurricane force winds ,extremely mild temperatures ,rain rain rain ,Take your pick But you aint guaranteed what you want .
Yes current charts are starting to excite some [including me ] but we all know the score ,so lets chill out crack open a STella or two and chill out .
I,v just checked our Grit bin outside our home and its still full from last winter ,a bit rock solid with rubbish on top ,lets hope it gets a good use this winter ,i,m always mentioning Contrails ,and currently they are very long and wide ,and hanging about a sure sign of plenty of moisture ,The change can now be seen down towards our far s west on the Radar cheers
-
1
-
-
Autumn is becoming more and more present. Leaves are starting to turn red, yellow and brown, and the days are getting steadily shorter. And yet, the weather has been far from autumnal, with a high pressure area bringing very calm and fine weather over the past week or so. This all is going to change in the next few days, though, as low pressure activity will become more prevalent from the west.
Perhaps even more interesting is that we are seeing an ex-tropical cyclone (Joaquin) appearing on the weather map of Europe, which will undoubtedly affect our weather (be it positive or negative) in about 5 days’ time. How will this system affect us, and could it even have a direct impact on the US? And how will we transition from settled to unsettled weather before ex-Joaquin moves in? Read the answers to these questions below! Of a side note, during the past few hours, this system has been nearing category 5 strength (!) with 135 knots sustained winds.
The end of a fine weather spell
As mentioned before, we are seeing the breakdown of a very persistent high pressure area present during last week. This process is already taking shape, but not very convincingly yet. Let us take a look at the current air mass satellite image combined with 500 hPa heights to get an overview of the current situation.
Airmass satellite image overlain with 500 hPa heights (green lines) as of 12 UTC. Courtesy: EUMETSAT.
A first look at the current 500 hPa pattern shows a rather messy picture. The dominant 500 hPa ridge is located over Eastern Europe (near Ukraine), but this ridge does not extend very far northward. Currently, this ridge also has influence over the UK and Western Europe. On the other hand, we can also see a couple of cut-off 500 hPa troughs over the Atlantic and southern France (blue circles).
Finally, the most active weather is located over Scandinavia, where the Jetstream is very active. Evidence for this is that the lines of equal geopotential height are very close together there. In other words, there is a very large difference in height (or pressure) in that specific area. This becomes clearer when we look at the Jetstream analysis from Netweather:
Jetstream analysis as of 12 UTC (Courtesy: Netweather).
Troughing comes flying in from the west
By tomorrow, the weather developments become much clearer. For the ones looking forward to some real autumnal weather, this is what would be wanted. From the west, a 500 hPa trough will drop southward, as can be seen on the GFS forecast chart below:
GFS Surface level pressure (white lines) and 500 hPa heights (colours). 12Z run, T+24h.
We can see the trough (expressed by the green colours, encircled in blue) digging southward over the Atlantic. On the west side of this trough, another important development is taking place, as we can see the beginnings of a 500 hPa ridge developing (orange colours pointing northward, denoted by the red line).
At the surface, a first small-scale low pressure area appears to be nearing the UK from the south (the 995 hPa low pressure area to the west of Normandy, France).
An amplified flow developing
If we look 2 days later (so 3 days from now), the aforementioned ridge has become much more developed, causing a very amplified pattern to develop. Amplified means the amplitude (the north-south extent) of the troughs and ridges is very high. See the image below:
GFS Surface level pressure (white lines) and 500 hPa heights (colours). 12Z run, T+72h.
Over the UK, a trough is present (green colours, denoted in blue), which will likely yield some very unsettled conditions over the UK on Tuesday. However, this is far from a typical westerly flow. In fact, the situation is completely blocked, as we can see a strong ridge (orange colours, red line) present over Scandinavia. This ridge makes sure the trough over the UK cannot move in over Western Europe, essentially keeping the door shut.
And for the very attentive people, we can see our (ex-) tropical cyclone Joaquin appearing on our map! This is the very deep low pressure area (at the surface, about 980 hPa central pressure, denoted in black) just south of Nova Scotia, US at the extreme western edge of the map.
Tropical trouble for the weather models
Tropical cyclones are notorious for causing weather models to shift dramatically with their solutions when they arrive. This is because they bring along very moist air from the tropics northward, and they are relatively small-scale systems. If these systems make a direct hit, they can be huge rainmaker. But just as often they enforce a southerly flow to their eastern side bringing very warm conditions. What will it be this time? Most likely a close call for the UK, and in the parts below I will try to find out why, by comparing the operational runs of the GFS and ECMWF.
GFS Surface level pressure (white lines) and 500 hPa heights (colours). 12Z run, T+144
ECMWF Surface level pressure (white lines) and 500 hPa heights (colours). 12Z run, T+144h
In both situations, the extratropical remnants of Joaquin are located roughly to the west of Ireland. Comparing both models shows that there is quite some consistency about the general location where Joaquin will be. Both models show the system to the west of Iceland, the GFS being slightly further east. Will this mean that Joaquin will miss the UK? Maybe, but there are some caveats in this forecast that I would like to address:
- We can see that the low pressure area containing the remnants of Joaquin is modelled only a few hundreds of kilometres to the west of the UK. However, at such time ranges, models often shift with the position of such small scale features, and any shift east would bring the system over the UK.
- Most of the models have been swinging around quite a lot with the track of Joaquin, as only 2 days ago the general agreed track was that the system would make landfall over the US. We know what happened afterwards.
And yet, we can be pretty sure that Joaquin will not swing any further than the UK. This is because of the blocking ridge over Scandinavia that was already present. For illustration, we take a look at the GFS synoptic map again for 144 hours out:
GFS Surface level pressure (white lines) and 500 hPa heights (colours). 12Z run, T+144
Note how a track as shown by the lower black arrow would mean the system would run into a blockade (the high pressure area over Scandinavia). This is physically not possible, and that is why Joaquin will curve northward away from Europe towards Iceland.
How will Joaquin affect the surface weather at the UK?
Now we know what will roughly be the track of ex-Joaquin, can we roughly pinpoint the local weather conditions associated with this system? The answer is no, because of the proximity of the current forecasted track of Joaquin near Ireland and the possibility for shifts in the models for 6 days out. However, we can be certain that the further east you go, the less significant the impacts will be.
Summary
We are about to experience a round of real autumn-like weather. However, this will not be a typical westerly circulation type of unsettled weather, as a firm blockade (high pressure area) sets up shop over Scandinavia. Meanwhile, in this period of unsettled weather an ex-tropical cyclone is forecast to near the UK, making the situation even more interesting. It looks now that the eastern parts of the UK will be spared from the worst impacts, but there is still room for some shift in the track forecasts. Definitely an interesting week of model watching ahead!
Sources:
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavneur.html
This is a brilliant post ,This is what our forum is all about ,yes some interesting weather to come ,after a very settled spell here comes autumn in all its glory .
-
2
-
I think the next 5/6 days will go as current models show ,but beyond that high pressure with just a shift here or there could realy bring many different weather types over the UK .
just got a Gut feeling that some very merky cold days could be on the cards on the far horizon ,high pressure seems to want to hang around to our east or north ,but will that be that or are we seeing some early signs of whats to come over the winter period ,so we have some interesting Model discussions ahead ,Not many about tonight i wonder why ,My 93 yr old mother in law is watching the rugby ,cheers gang :drinks:thought i,d posted this in Model output discussion ,well should have gone to spec savers .
-
1
-
-
Looking at all Modell output today i can only gleen from them that an interesting further outlook could evolve .
High pressure over some more northern areas and some interesting features in the atlantic .
A different looking upper air profile over the poles on some data and at present it looks like some sort of blocking trying to set up over norther hemisphere locations ,Iam not suggesting any imminent invasion of cold weather but interesting for us Model watchers to get our Teeth into what may or may not be happening during October which can sometimes be a boring Month .
I,m going to put a few STellas on ice ,cheers gang
-
2
-
-
Absolutely brilliant here for the end of september ,and the charts are looking good for the next 4 or 5 days .
Then all models bring in unsettled weather which will extend to most parts next week .
In the further outlook there are many options i feel looking at current charts ,with the Jet stream becoming fragmented [as john holmes mentions ]and with this in mind positioning of high pressure could throw up all sorts of synoptic situations .
Its great that we have this forum and all the info on the internet to realy enjoy our hobby ,those of us who were around back in the 60s 70 s 80 s had a very hard time trying to find out such information .
Just what is in store for us weather enthusiasts over the coming months ,its certainly great looking at all the technical info and trying to fathom out all the combinations that could be waiting for us ,well GFS ready to roll ,cheers gang
-
5
-
-
The Gfs 00z shows anticyclonic conditions throughout this week with variable cloud and sunny / clear spells and feeling pleasantly warm by day with max temps in the low to mid 60's F but overnight becoming chilly with patchy mist and fog, the coldest nights across northern britain where a touch of frost is possible in rural areas. The high starts to push away eastwards through next weekend and from the start of next week it becomes progressively unsettled and cooler from the west with bouts of strong winds and persistent rain alternating with brighter but colder and showery conditions and towards the end of the run, it becomes colder still with showers turning wintry across northern hills and mountains.
Well charts paint a rosy week coming up then bingo some charts in the outlook to warm the cockles of our hearts with atlantic driven weather systems .So frosty we look forward to your wintry charts if this further outlook from todays charts come to fruition ,cheers ,Razor blades, Straws ,Prams and of course Prozack comes to mind ,cheers gang
-
4
-
-
Evening all. High pressure controls the Nation this week although a nagging wind develops across the southern half of Britain from the East or north east which may produce a lot of cloud cover. So I would say Scotland will all in all have some very pleasant temperatures, Probably the highest temperatures in the Uk. So we go out to T+168 and models disagree vastly, Gfs keeps the high pressure scenario, Ecm shows the return of the Atlantic...
Just about to post a similar post ,anybody on uk holiday over next week have i think picked a good time ,after that well i,v waited 63 years to see blackpool illuminations and ECM as tracked me down as we are their October the 5th ,but at 8 days away we could be in luck ,time will tell .
But certainly looking like some interesting norther Hemisphere weather in the outlook .
-
2
-
-
Awesome Ecm 12z, first of all we get the high in place for the weekend with plenty of warm sunshine but with chilly nights and an increasing risk of fog patches which continues through next week but then towards the end of next week our uk based high pulls westwards into the atlantic and T+240 shows the first cold blast of the autumn about to sweep south..now that was a run worth waiting for.
I was half expecting a chart like this to pop up from ECM soon .
I think the further outlook is far from nailed ,so still good potential for some summery type of weather then i have a gut feeling that some real autumn type set up with some colder temp could be on the cards .
expect last few frames of ECM to have big variations on each run ,here we go an interesting period coming up .cheers
-
7
-
-
Rain now stopped here in north somerset ,total rain about 4mm ,so the weather beets us again , must admit i was expecting something a bit more meaty but we all know the score bring on the winter storms cheers .
-
A very interesting day coming up ,its all now coming together and looks to me that things will quickly change so i,m going to check every hour or so on radar and still time for surprises as its all very complex ,well thats the nature of our hobby very frustrating at times but that goes with a Science thats not exact even here in the year 2015 .
Television forecasts have always been open to big changes over the day not so much these days but generally its been a case of collecting Data and getting in on the screen in the form of a forecast ,time is limited to telly forecasts but its great we now have the Web in our interest ,some action now as regards to thundery activity to our south ,best of luck to all
-
2
-
-
Looking at all current charts and Data things look very interesting over the coming ten days or so .
One of those situations i feel when it would only need the Dice to fall right and we could see some disturbed and Newsworthy weather over the UK .
Tomorrow very interesting and mid week we still dont know which path our Low will take and the path and pressure will make big differences in forecasting and looking further ahead ,no real clear signal i feel is being given .
But one thing i,m pretty sure on and thats the number of posters will start to rise [including myself ] its great to have this forum for those into Meteorology ,the best im sure anywhere on the internet [cheers gang
] .
Model Output Discussion 18z 30/09/15
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
As Summer sun points out great that we have this synoptic pattern rather than having it in our winter ,of course we could still get it come winter but still possible to get some cold shots as well .
well today was a fantastic day and more to come .
does look like the Atlantic will have a big push later on in the longer range charts but its going to struggle against that euro high ,but gang hang on and a change will come i,m sure , but charts do have a look of Groundhog day ,lets enjoy it while we can .