[Model Output Discussion - 3rd May Onwards 00z--->]

The Ecm 00z ensemble mean shows warm / very warm air from southern Europe spreading up across the UK early next week with widespread low 20's celsius, at least for the southern half of the uk and closer to 24/25c for the s/se. With high pressure to the south, the best of the weather next week would be across more southern parts with warm sunny spells, more unsettled and less warm further northwest.

Would certainly take what some of the charts are hinting at .

but looks like areas of low pressure will drift in off the Atlantic but at this range it could i feel be hard to call .

May can be so variable atleast we do have summer lets hope for a good one .

[Storm & Convective Discussion - 01/03/15 onwards]

Certainly very interesting night coming up ,hvy rain here now eased off a bit but radar showing more heading north .

hard i think to predict best places for thunder later but i think west country will catch some but possibly places further east could be better for anything intense ,but in this type of set up loads of players in the atmosphere so heres hoping we get some happy posters .

just started hvy again .lets hope for a good un .cheers Bappers .

[Model Output Discussion - 3rd May Onwards 00z--->]

Would certainly not want to forecast past 10 days at present .

but a fair chance looking at tonights charts that high pressure will be influensing our weather towards mid month .

Just a slight adjustment of where any high sits could mean average temp or rather warm if the ridging is in our favour .

Nice to see plenty of info from posters ,and its great to pop in this forum and catch up on some weather news ,i seem to spend most time these days looking after elderly relatives , certainly some lively weather today ,take care all .

[South West & Central Southern England - Weather Chat]

some realy heavy showers about here now but looks like wells area is the best bet in our patch At present .

[Storm & Convective Discussion - 01/03/15 onwards]

Just had a very hvy downpour ,but only lasted 2 minutes or so .

possibly heard thunder but could have been other noises as building work going on close ,but some other cells now building across south west .

hoping for something later this evening as the dark hours are best for effect ,cheers .

[Storm & Convective Discussion - 01/03/15 onwards]

Yes can confirm .i live about 8 miles east of weston ,we had a very loud crack abo ut 10 mins ago [and again now it seems to be drifting east or n east cheers ,i,v also posted in local thread .

[South West & Central Southern England - Weather Chat]

A very small but potent cell just popped up to my n west ,only 10 minutes or so ago  very loud crack ,my wife saw the lightning as out getting the washing in .

nothing since ,any other reports please .

probab;ly set off with temp difference ,atleast its a start .cheers all .

[Model Output Discussion - Spring 5th March Onwards 6z--->]

Some good posts on our forum ,thanks for studying the charts and giving a picture of what could happen .

I,m still looking after elderly relatives but its nice to pop in and see what mother Nature could be sending our way .

so after a break down later tomorrow next week could deliver more very high temp for April and if low pressure does move in from the west some action weather for us to get our teeth into .But at this range detail becomes unsure ,certainly not boring gang .  STellas all round .

[Model Output Discussion - Spring 5th March Onwards 6z--->]

Models tonight showing promise of some nice warmer weather ,but looking a bit shaky as low pressure trys to move in from the west .

But my call at present would be some nice spells of warm usable weather .

now where as my wife hid my egg ,have a good easter sunday gang .

[Model Output Discussion - Spring 5th March Onwards 6z--->]

The Easter weekend is actually looking ok, it will become dry, winds will become light, there will be a fair amount of cloud, initially at least but there will also be sunny spells and in the sunshine it will feel pleasant but cold nights where skies clear. The GEFS 00z mean is a beauty, it shows high pressure building in over the top of the UK, intensifying and lasting for anything up to two weeks, once the high is established, I think changes will be very slow.

Yes looking at todays output charts i would say some very pleasant weather could be around the corner .

But under scrutiny just a few tweaks here and there could mean the difference between High pressure dominance or the uk  on the wrong side with low pressure battling it out over or near the UK .A few more runs needed but atleast we have some interesting possibilitys and certainly not a Bore fest ,something to keep us all interested /  

[Model Output Discussion - Spring 5th March Onwards 6z--->]

afternoon all ,well looking at charts this coming week looks not so good for outdoor activities but further outlook shows signs of something more settled .

just a case of getting the forecasted high in a good position hopefully further east the better .

 not many posters about but i enjoy popping in on the best weather forum around .  

[South West & Central Southern England - Weather Chat]

Thanks for the answers folks.

 

Just want to say....this is the best place I know to ask questions, about all sorts of things. No one makes you feel like a fool and so many people are happy to help and inform. Brilliant aint it

Yes brilliant weather forum and looking across the northern Hemisphere probably the best around ,i wish this site had been around 30/40 yrs ago ,yes brillian t aint it ,cheers .

[Model Output Discussion - Spring 5th March Onwards 6z--->]

Brilliant weather forum ,and thanks to all regular posters who share their knowledge ,usually on certain aspects of a very complex subject .

Yes probably many jumping ship but i,m sure many just lurk ,charts today showing some action weather and a promise for some of possibly some good outdoor weather in the further outlook ,off for a bit of digging ,cheers all 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring 5th March Onwards 6z--->]

Evening all ,not posted lately ,looking after older family members but have been looking in .

nice to see some action weather on current charts ,and looking further ahead some hints of a warm plume but as usual this could be knocked away if the Atlantic kicks off .

 

Easter quite often comes up with headline weather of some sorts ,lets hope its warm sorts ,we,ll keep the snow till next season gang .cheers .

[South West & Central Southern England - Weather Chat]

Nice to see the hail and sleet this morning ,seems to be something incoming from bristol channel ,hoping its some of the white stuff .cheers .

[South West & Central Southern England - Weather Chat]

Thunder being reported from Minehead area ,gone very dark here with wind picking up ,just hoping to see a bit of the white stuff overnight perhaps if we get some intensity ,Spring as arrived .cheers .

[Model Output Discussion - 1st February Onwards 12z--->]

Ok Winter virtually over but still some time left for some snow if we get lucky .next week should be an action week looking at current charts which should be far better than high pressure sat right over us ,something for all on current charts from wintry showers to the possibility of a nice settled warm spell .Its been a great forum for learning yet again and we can look forward to the next winter Discussions with far more Knowledge ,and a nice feeling come late autumn that we will have many weeks ahead of us once again .But before that we have the possibility of Spanish plumes ,thunderstorms from hell ,long cold wet summer days and everything probably including the kitchen sink ,certainly an interesting hobby ,cheers   

[Model Output Discussion - 1st February Onwards 12z--->]

Just popped in for a read and look at todays charts ,And i can see completely different solutions for the further outlook .At least i suppose not boring and something today for every Taste .Next week looking like it could give some a wintry taste ,then the big question where does any high pressure set up ,an interesting spell in coming ,  

[Model Output Discussion - 1st February Onwards 12z--->]

Yes we have some nice charts today IF its cold weather your keen on .But i,m fast becoming a stickler  for Met office outlook and not looking to far ahead as the weather at Ten days or so ahead can be very hard to predict with the charts We have available .

Mushymanrob on post 1475 mentions NOAA I too find their site interesting .But what is interesting at the moment for me is the fact that going back a week or so ago it looked like high pressure would move in and set up shop in a position bringing us mild dross .

And here we are in a Possibility of possibly seeing high pressure eventually to our north or north east .when i first joined Net weather ,i would watch Gfs every run and must admit would run with some of the Pack chasing every available cold chart only finishing up completely emptying my pram ,A great Forum and great learning site ,and i,m pretty sure the best on offer and its FRee ,catch up with you all later for tonights eye candy i hope ,cheers   

[Model Output Discussion - 1st February Onwards 12z--->]

Interesting charts this evening ,nice to see some low 850mb temperatures being forecast on different models .still i,m sure if we can get a bit of luck, March could deliver [i will take whats on offer and hope for an upgrade ] .lets hope the back end of winter early spring is our cold weather friend .

[South West & Central Southern England - Weather Chat]

Just popped out for a fag 10 mins ago and saw two very bright flashes way out east from here probably on top mendip way ,my wife says lights dimmed a bit no thunder heard but was very windy at the time .seems to be a line of storms passing over our area but with small gaps between ,been a very interesting day weatherwise .

[South West & Central Southern England - Weather Chat]

Just had rain sleet hail wet snow plus one clap of thunder all in 15 mins ,just waiting for the rainbow .settling on some of the hills around here but most of the showers  seem to be decaying as they run in land atleast some action today ,cheers .

[South West & Central Southern England - Weather Chat]

I wouldn,t be surprised to even see some wet snow down to lower levels If precipitation becomes heavy enough ,what a day dark cold and blowy ,back edge of rain now moving in but looks like its going to back fill a bit with pulses running along front , Some of the lanes around here getting quite flooded ,cheers gang .

[Model Output Discussion - 1st February Onwards 12z--->]

A very mild start to the meteorological spring from the 6z with 60F possible, high pressure becoming centred to the south and a long draw of winds from the Azores feeding across the UK...winter goes out like a lamb...a spring lamb :-)

Talking of Lambs ,Lion Springs to mind .Models in good agreement of High pressure setting up later next week but still the possibility of being able to get some northern blocking during March ,Its the next stage of the proceedings which could be interesting and although a straw clutch March can deliver so still time for lowland snow if we get lucky .And with 60f a possibility as Frosty points out it could be that the Quick change Artist could come into play ,Whatever, its all interesting and keeps us Model watchers Glued to the charts in search of our Dream weather ,  

[South West & Central Southern England - Weather Chat]

Looks like another band of hvy rain just approaching from west ,I did expect this to be more showery but now looks like another spell of persistent rain .Our hvy area of rain expected later in the night could give i think some wet snow even to modest lower levels if the intensity and timing his right .Batten down the hatches and get the Wellies out for next week ,certainly not boring ,cheers   i,ll have a half .