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legritter

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Posts posted by legritter

    Model output discussion - 21st Jan Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by legritter

    Been watching charts and studying weather for many a year ,current output looks very interesting but as others have pointed out the carrot is usually right out in longer range .

    but looking at todays output what is going on in the northern hemisphere is very unusual including the last several years ,this is where i have my Straw clutch ,we still have frigid arctic temperatures so i,m pretty sure somewhere down the line our time will come ,looks like the fair possibility now of seeing named storms into february as well ,i,m pretty confident that by the end of next weekend we will have a huge trough to our east but what follows it across from the west is still uncertain ,unless of course it manifests itself from the north ,if widespread snow does come in the uk  including south of M4 i shall be cracking open those STEllas ,hang on gang its still just about January  february can be brutal ,Gfs out soon :yahoo:we still have frigid arctic temperatures as in the polar regions .of course not at present in the uk .

    • Like 5

    Model output discussion - 21st Jan Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    I realy liked this mornings ECM run ,ok the best charts were the last couple and so tonight we realy want to see these charts come a bit closer .

    taking in what is available on the net  further outlooks SSW s etc and of course our professionals down at exeter i,m keeping my hopes up for maybe after next weekend ,but i,m ready for a fall as this hobby is full of let downs if you are chasing your dream synoptics .

    Gfs now rolling out and soon the main models will be setting out their thoughts ,we have had a sniff of the Arctic lets get plastered ,cheers gang catch you all up later .:yahoo:

    • Like 4

    Model output discussion - 21st Jan Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    10 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

    06z looks like more cold air involved. Lots of tweaking to come me thinks. 

     

    BFTP

    yes i,m very impressed with current charts ans data ,just getting the dice to fall right i think depending on your location ,liking that at long last some arctic air is modelled to come further south and some hopefully weather systems around for some fun and games tonights runs eagerly awaited to see i hope some firming up ,Bap and coffee  cheers gang .

    • Like 4
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    Model output discussion - 21st Jan Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Hello Gang ,i,v been around and reading our forum regular .

    must admit i do feel at the moment that we could be looking at something interesting for us snow starved posters . first off todays charts show a real wild week ahead  very newsworthy weather on the way ,and we are very fast going through our Named storm list with G and H NOW being touted about .

    Ecm still showing some wintry potential but as usual with the longer range charts its nearly always different the following run .

    but looking like the jet will be digging further south so fingers crossed we see some lows move west to east further south and i,m sure this will put a smile on our winter faces :yahoo:i,v sent a memo to the main models for our big party in February and i,m sorry if your name is Barty  azores limpet slug ,warm sector spoiler ,or you have contacts or associations with the M4 corridoor you cant come .

    cold highs channel lows sliders polar lows cold waves and baltic  blasters including torpeedos   All welcome .Well i,m looking forward to tonights Gfs run but wont be watching every frame , great forum and thanks to all the regular posters who take the effort to show charts and data ,right february  Bring it on ,cheers :yahoo:

    • Like 18

    Model output discussion - 21st Jan Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Just now, Ed Stone said:

    Can we please get back to discussing the models? We have threads dedicated to past winters. Even though I can't find them!:rofl:

    like the post ,personally i think we could all do with a break Stellas and baps  ,on me .

    plenty of time left for dream synoptics but very frustrating looking east at present i,m expecting a better run tonight from ECM  ,great forum gang .:yahoo:

    • Like 8

    Model output discussion pm 13/01/2016

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    i,m realy hoping for something a bit interesting on tonights ecm run .

    Gfs all over the shop ,yes it could be on to something with all this big variation so hoping it comes back to previouse couple of runs .

    just a case of being patient which of course we all are arent we """ plenty of very cold air to our east and north east we just need a kick from somewhere ,lets see where we are once we get the next 24 hrs under our belts ,good posts today in hard times ,cheers .:friends:

    • Like 1

    Model output discussion pm 13/01/2016

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    7 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

    Correct: blown out of proportion and misinterpreted. Tom was simply highlighting potential for colder continental influence lingering to E and remaining a 'spoiler' to W'ward progression/providing further battleground focus. He wasn't suggesting an Easterly per se and no indication of such presently exists in UKMO model assessments. Hope that clarifies.

    Great forum ,we have time to discuss the models ,television presenters get very little time to explain ,twenty years ago i wrote to bbc  with regards this .

    i,m pretty sure we need to be patient ,as signs are afoot , cheers gang .

    Model output discussion pm 13/01/2016

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Some very interesting posts today ,and some signs in the further outlook that we could get a better shot at cold .

    i have personaly found the current colder spell very frustrating but of course very interesting .

    If there is another shot out on the horizon which todays later ECM is showing and now GFS  and of course hints from other models does in fact turn up i,m thinking it will start to realy show up over coming days so realy looking forward to every run of the main models .

    As just been pointed out on other posts good signs showing but we need consistency across the board ,glad my first ever chart i posted actually arrived on my post ,cant do it on my main computer but ok on my Tablet i had for Christmas ,catch ypou all up later cheers :yahoo:

    • Like 3

    South West & Central Southern England - Weather Chat, 6th December and Onwards...

    in Regional

    Posted

    Evening all ,i promised myself i wouldnt look at radar tonight but couldn,t resist it .

    showers over wales seem to be breaking up a bit now ,the earlier forecast was for more organised sleet and snow much later in the night so heres hoping ,known snow from these set ups many times over the years but it is frustrating when wales seems to Zap them ,i may have a Half before bed then up early tomorrow for Dentist ,take care all .

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    44 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

    The good news is the cold weather, once fully established looks like staying until well into next week which is better than some of the models were showing yesterday so it's going to gradually become colder this week with widespread frosts and icy patches and increasingly wintry showers and even some longer spells of rain, sleet and wet snow with the snow not exclusively across the hills or the north either, there could be some wintry surprises later this week as the main trough eventually edges further east and opens the door to a colder NW'ly airflow.:):cold-emoji:

    I can only echo Frostys post at present .

    Looking at all current data and charts i think this cold spell could hang on for some time ,Alot of ifs and buts after this week end and still the scope for surprises galore if our dice falls right .

    A big question mark also come sat /sun with the possible inclusion of fronts approaching from the Atlantic and with this being 6/8 days away and models all over the place we could find ourselves in a real battleground situation ,no guarantee but i do feel the chance is there .

    Great posts again on our top forum , and a snooze before the next set of runs ,Stellas all round gang ,i,ll have a half .:yahoo:

    • Like 5

    Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, i luv snow said:

    And also, that with nearly every cold spell which arrives on these shores, models consiistently show an end to it before it actually happens, underestimating how hard it is to shift the cold. So with both these points in mind, bah humbug to the nay-sayers. Particularly those who clearly just try to wind-up others, luckily only one or two. There will be many changes yet! All exciting times though...

    Current charts scream potential, we have a good spell of wintry weather to come synoptics will suddenly appear  and every run of the models will be different ,let's get these cold temp in and then any attack from the Atlantic could produce ,but I think we could be seeing some fun come late Tuesday of next week with features popping up ,let's enjoy it STELLAS all round :yahoo:

    • Like 9

    Meto Uk Further Outlook

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Must be very hard in some aspects to get the wording right on forecasts past one week away especially on the occasion of a major change in the charts .

    newspapers reading these outlooks will always pick out any juicy bits and exaggerate so the met office will always stay firm on whats in front of them .

    going on past cold spells over the last 40 years or so i always look out for those words ,uncertainty and hard to shift etc ,i,m pretty sure when we arrive at this saturday some of the forecasts could be real wintry ,cheers all ,heres hoping .

    Model output discussions pm 31/12/15

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Evening posters ,nice to see some warm hearty posts ,all brought about by some nice looking charts .

    all of course at the longer range but they are showing ,lets hope for some good updates over the coming days .

    Snow can come from many synoptic set ups as we all know ,we are currently and for the past several weeks been having very amazing weather in the northern hemisphere ,its possible i suppose for this type of pattern to persist for another 8 weeks or so but very unlikely  thats my big straw at present ,so with plenty of winter left heres a toast STellas all round tonight gang ,roll on tomorrows runs ,:yahoo:

    • Like 7

    Model output discussions pm 31/12/15

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    I am certainly more confident now as apposed to over a week ago that we could be seeing some shots at wintry weather in the coming month .

    as far as tonights charts out to about one week from now in this type of set up goes ,we could if we get lucky see pressure rise a bit more to our north north east and with plenty of energy from the Atlantic that in itself could give us a very good chance .

    a lot going on in the northern hemisphere just now and i am personally not looking to far ahead  as big changes could come very quickly ,so very interesting discussion wise  which of course is all good for our Super Net weather forum ,not very technical from me Gang ,SO from ME tonight to all of you  cheers to some more interesting times in 2016 HAppy new year to you all ,and of course the modells ,cheers :drunk-emoji::cold:

    • Like 8

    Model output discussion - 1st December onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    11 minutes ago, MPG said:

    So much northern blocking on the models (especially the 6z). Its funny, all this high pressure and the UK still in a westerly flow, then the high pressure from the south pushing up later in the run. Norway getting a good winter from on it seems.

    As many are aware the end of run charts are so different ,even at mid range a big difference ,so going by todays charts its very interesting not boring ,and copiouse amounts of rain probably some surprises for some ,all very active weather in the northern hemisphere so i personally expect everything including the kitchen sink ,got woken this morning by a large trampoline hitting the house so kitchen sink to follow ,take care cheers .

    • Like 4

    Model output discussion - 1st December onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Evening gang ,just popped in for a gander and our forum is well and truly lively ,just like the weather at the moment .

    looking at todays runs including tonights not boring by any means with plenty of heavy rain strong winds and now colder 850 s getting pulled in ,my gut feeling is our block to our east or north east could turn up trumps but we could sit on the boundary of any meaningfull cold ,so Iff its out there we will get hints from met office outlook [slight hints today regards colder dryer in the east ] keep an eye on that important 144 hr chart from ECM  also keep a beedy eye on atlantic lows we need them further south ,of course i would love a good nationwide snow event but i am willing to wait perhaps with a dry slot first for our flooded folk on this island ,but all in all some very newsworthy weather Again on the way ,STellas all round gang ,going out for a walk with the hound  cheers .:drunk-emoji:

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