[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

DEC/JAN - batter GFS

MAR - batter UKMO

Funny place this.

By Saturday, will be interesting to see what models side with each other. We all know the model stars never have them in perfect alignment.

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

Was a bit worried reading all the breakdown comments. Posted the UKMO 0z this morning and here is the 12z.

If anything, a slight upgrade.

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

UKMO 0z looks like a good solution at day 5, HP position near Greenland that still allows cold to move in.

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

3 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:

What did happen next in March 1997?

1997 March was very warm (at 8.4, third warmest in the CET run for this century after 1957 and 1938, and indeed since 1659), and very dry, except in north-west Scotland.

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

5 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:

Here are the ECM ensemble graphics for the south coast, with the cut-off point at day 10 where the left graphic stops but the right graphic continues tactically highlighted...

March 6 looking like FI. This is like wishing time away but by Saturday it should become very clear (never is)

Not much speak about how the 2nd warming will tie in going forward apart from Eagle Eye.

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

20 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Fantastic set of 12z Mogreps in the south at least and remaining cold too . Just one or two stragglers now . 

 

Here is the earlier 6z to compare which was also a good run . 

Agreed Mark, this isn`t a NAVGEM model. It does chop and change but it seemed to latch onto the idea a few days back, backed off and now an upgrade.

Every model is twitchy.

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

As much as I liked the look of the T120 ECM, starting to think the UKMO with its more rounded robust HP may be better.

This ECM run all happens rather fast, looks great but not sure the HP exiting NW and building that strong arctic HP in `days` doesn`t sit right.

Deffo 1 day at a time required, it`s only Tuesday, lots of evolving to happen and there is a point in the ECM where the 850`s lift somewhat off the South coast hinting at the Atlantic having a good go. 

Amazing stuff and watching, just keeping level headed.

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

T120 ECM, liking the look of the HP and the cold pool.

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

Compared with yesterdays NAO, the rise out of negative is sharper today, swifter.

27th                                                                     today

        

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

Just now, WINTRY WALES said:

Which model is best to view to keep an amateur eye on that high position? Hopefully one that goes north west 

All of them, look for some consensus between the majority and just see how it all pans out.

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

1 hour ago, Ali1977 said:

not watched it yet, but likely a good idea of what’s about to happen

Thanks for posting that even though I know it`s the wrong forum.

To sum up 25 mins, hawk eye that HP movement in the coming days, forget snow charts for now.

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

Heard this morning that Mallorca is expecting a foot of snow and has issued warnings. 

Just shows you don`t need ridiculous setups. 

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

1 hour ago, Mark wheeler said:

Great morning runs and mogreps going cold this morning too. Looks an improvement to me .

Looks like it has headed back to where it was 2 days ago.

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

4 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:

However:

The red box indicates days 10-15, which aren't shown on the other graphic. Looks a bit different when you see this.

Very nice, North then NE. 

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

9 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

The Metoffice don't tend to mention the risk of 'disruptive snow' without being fairly confident that it could occur.

We just have to wait and see how this pans out over the next couple of days or so. There will still be twists and turns in the modelling.

My thoughts are that the operationals are starting to get a better grip on downwelling from the SSW, so I'm leaning towards the modelling firming up on cold as we go forward, rather than downgrading the chances. We'll see.

Remember Michael Fish circa 1987?

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

All looks great from the ECM but this model can and has turned with 24hrs to go...

Look forward to the ens.

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

1 minute ago, Mucka said:

It is like someone took a ruler and perfectly dissected the Northern Hemisphere with it. Look how straight that line is. One for the archives if it comes off.

This is my bit of the pizza, here`s yours...

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

That`s far enough for now, good effort ECM.

You have to expect the pacific ridging is down the PNA neg outlook. All feasible.

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

Nice spot today regarding the NAO. Note the mean drops from 7/10/14 days.

Trying really hard to go negative.

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

Talk of cross polar ridging yesterday. You can see this attempt easily with the jet.

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

17 minutes ago, MATT TATTOO said:

I said the other day there's indications of these ens from mogreps trending colder..and booommm...they've done just that! Feel free to pm me and congratulate me later folks

Even good old Thomas on countryfile hinted at those colder conditions getting very close! Good job it wasn't Darren cause there's no way he could be putting up with that  

We live to fight another day gang...let's hope for a special Monday to start the new week. But I'm liking the trends.

@Mark wheelercheers bud for putting them ens up...you beat me to it..you stick to Navgem and me to mogreps only kidding mate.

Anyway that's me done for the evening...once I've got me Dad settled which is gonna be difficult as he's having a very bad day today with his condition...im gonna treat myself to Salems Lot..the 1979 2 part edition with David Soul...absolute classic.

Have fun all 🫡

If you look at the time stamps between Aberdeen and London, it almost looks like a Northerly which does make it`s way finally South. I am just looking at squiggly lines though.

Edit : not from NE.

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

4 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Wow thats quite a shift to cold in mogreps this evening.

Just had to look to see the time stamps. Blimey. There is hardly ANY scatter towards neutral either... very interesting.

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

1 minute ago, Snowy L said:

Plausible way to miss out on cold.

 

Absolutely comical. Why is there a huge vortex in the place it's just been overwhelmingly ejected from?

Very plausible indeed.

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

This uptick signal is still present on the NAO. The way I read that is yes we may get a swift colder hit but it isn`t sustained.

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The block mustn’t escape too far west as we lose the forcing on that Atlantic low pressure .

Not enough disruption day 7 into 8 but we can still scrape over the line with some frontal snow but need that low to disrupt ASAP !

and there is the 9 day chart Nick, well said. Then again 9 days is well into FI.