Stuie
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Posts posted by Stuie
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2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:
I assume the point is that if the low within 24 hours is is modelled then what’s the point in looking at day 4. I think that is mixing the micro and the macro - the mis modelling of the low within day 1 is limited - it doesn’t appear to affect anything other than the area it occupies and for a short time period. If it were the difference between a shallow runner and a rounded deepening system at the same timescale then that could be different.
Yep totally agree.
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13 minutes ago, CoventryWeather said:
No one has really pointed this out, but there is uncertainty with the low for this evening, and how it develops during today.
Why is anyone looking at days 3/4 when models are struggling even at 24 hours?
Not exactly sure what you mean when the weather is constantly mobile. Everything is going to develop during today.
If you don`t look 3 days ahead then there is zero point in looking at these models.
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Looking at yesterdays NAO teleconnection, tentative sign that it will stay negative for longer. Whether that means a delay to the milder temps in the South who knows but here it is.
EDIT: The 0z GEFS ensembles for London can`t even get strong agreement post T48.
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Looking at the Arpege profile rather than what I normally do (precipitation), they have 3 x LP`s midweek skirting Northern France.
I suppose everything is on the table at the min.
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3 minutes ago, E17boy said:
I am so confused and I just don’t know where we are heading next week in terms of cold. I must admit today has been one of the most confusing and frustrating days of model watching . Seems like a week waiting for this cold is now all of a sudden being watered down, Sorry to be downbeat but I am sure a lot of you will know where I am coming from.
I am just going to see what falls out of the sky and maybe seeing a few flakes will be a lucky prize.
Enjoy the rest of Saturday peeps. I have come to learn that there are many more important things in life other than the weather.
Oh by the way ECM you are the one I praised a couple of nights ago …. Thanks yes.
regards
Things are only watered down if you look too far ahead.
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5 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:
Well the EC Control and mean still bring the precip in on wed night - so still plenty to work out!!
A snapshot of the ENS below - pick the bones out of that
Wednesday/Thursday is going to be warning stuff or not. We aren`t gushing over a 10 day chart, this is much closer BUT details closer than that are still unresolved.
I have no clue about further up but this SSW is playing havoc.
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Here is your ECM outlier from the 12z.
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2 hours ago, nick sussex said:
The UKMO if it verifies which of course is a big if is more likely to disrupt energy eastwards day 6 into 7 .
Been thinking about your post Nick, the UKMO could be setting a trend and agree. If the LP`s do phase and stay West then could we possibly get an azores ridge, not over us but West of us?
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7 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:
9/10th still at around 30 percent showing snow, let’s see where that goes later.
The issue I suppose is what happens to the LP`s, currently not formed (in a way it affects us) and is a trend they might just phase and stay West.
You can`t say this isn`t interesting and is deffo a learning curve.
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3 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:
Yep it qualifies, anyone looking past Wednesday is wasting their time. Even that might be a day to far
Yep, 100% agree. Reign in those days.
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Not sure if anyone posted the GEFS ensembles but what a mess. Not sure if this qualifies as a shannon entropy or not but...
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6 minutes ago, nick sussex said:
The movement of the PV chunk is the issue . Once that moves too far west the forcing disappears on that Atlantic low .
The ECM is pretty dismal by day 6 apart from the far north .
I doubt it will verify as shown given the outputs continue to diverge as to the upstream trough set up .
The ECM has been chucking out plenty of outliers recently. Lets await the ensembles right.
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UKMO has some pretty cold 850`s on Weds.
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16 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:
Really after a couple of runs and completely at loggerheads with the recent met update!
No precipitation? There are several warnings in force for Sunday onwards..this place really does leave me scratching my head.
Yep, pretty much why I posted this morning about having a punt for the LP`s. Worrying about exact placements of a LP on Wednesday or Thursday and it`s only Saturday is baffling.
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@Cambrian Best post I have seen in ages, mild blip pmsl.
A great light hearted view.
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To take a stab at where or which track any LP goes when we are starting from here on the GEFS is a heck of a punt.
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1 minute ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:
Good God folks I'm struggling to keep up..your gonna crash the servers.. God help us if the ECM goes wrong..even though it won't spell the end due too the complicated circumstances...I can imagine the scene with some of you later this evening.
Yep, I`m not even going to look at the ECM, going for a drink. Go again tomorrow. Take it easy.
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1 minute ago, Mucka said:
All the models are chopping and changing with this so no clear trend but the breakdown is showing up in Ops more.
Of course the reality is that with each run we get nearer the event and so the Operational outcomes are more likely to reflect reality with each passing run so let's hope they show the low further S tomorrow.
If I had to guess I would say ECM will be somewhere between GFS and UKMO but whatever it shows it won't help much.
The arctic trough is trending the right way, we just need a little less push from the Atlantic and somewhere will hit the jackpot.
UK winter weather is always so fickle but then that is what keeps us here and scrutinising every output.
This is not going to help Mucka. We have gone from a pretty slack jet to one which is getting fired up and taking aim.
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Just now, Mike Poole said:
I think we are now in the ballpark where the lows from the atlantic do abut against the cold in the south. This is what will provide the snow, but it also risks dislodging the cold, and will do for some almost for certain. We want the low to break up into smaller ones that are elongated and negatively tilted, rather than bowling balls, sliding south of the cold as much as possible.
It is now all about the track of these lows. The Met Office appear to give the snow for the south option 60%, that probably means a channel low scenario, I’ll take that!
Agreed Mike. I should have expanded to say by dragging too much milder air in their current form (sort of said that to Nick). Take any lows if the cold air is there!
Was hoping for something today to become clearer on the cold side but just signs of less cold covering the country. Let`s go again tomorrow.
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2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:
Yes, compare T102 with 6z T108:
The Greenland high is a bit northwest, but also, the cold from the NE is slightly more advanced. So difficult to determine the overall effect on the battle zone later…
Struggling to see what is going to stop the LP`s ploughing the cold away from the South.
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3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:
I’m liking the GFS 12 hrs run to T72 hrs .
Already that upstream troughing is held further nw .
It`s still wanting to wind up that LP, as does the Icon. Is this going to drag up a SW little ridge quicker?
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Just now, Ali1977 said:
Icon looks good
Changed it`s tune from the 6z, firing up that LP.
Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by Stuie
IF the LP develops this way and produces another LP into the channel on Thurs early morning and IF the cold air which is modelled then X
Arpege again from yesterdays run which hints at this Weds night.