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Stuie

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    Spring 2023 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Just now, CryoraptorA303 said:

    Ah I suppose that's why our winters are getting more extreme... oh, wait, they aren't. They're actually getting milder. Oops.

    Around the globe. Extreme cold, extreme wet, extreme hot has all been experienced in the last 12 months.

    I know you are trolling and will be dismissed soon. 

    • Like 2

    Model discussion highlights

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Stuie

    31 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:

    Well well, it looks like I may get the hat-trick tonight. The positive anomaly around the Azores is even completely gone on the GEFS chart. At least it's not a boring +NAO pattern.

    Could contain: Chart, Plot, Person

    The problem is,  it is at least a neutral west based NAO. Heights are way past Greenland.

    Could contain: Chart, Plot

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion - Snow Watch limited edition

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Stuie

    20 minutes ago, StingJet said:

    How many weather fronts can Wales accommodate?  lmao ..what a mess.. in with a shout of the bent back occlusion squeezing into the south too..   and the trough over Cornwall / Devon .    a proper "Dogs dinner"

    Could contain: Spiral, Head, Person, Nature, Outdoors, Text

    Not surprised about it bring in a cold front, these LP`s have been fed arctic air for 2 days.

    Could contain: Green, Nature, Outdoors, Sea, Water

     

    EDIT: Still are.

    Could contain: Green, Nature, Outdoors, Sea, Water

    • Like 7

    Model Output Discussion - Snow Watch limited edition

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    43 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    Southerly tracking jet and weak heights to the n nw .

    Lots of rain or snow especially for higher ground depending as to how far south the jet tracks .

    The outputs show a good correlation with the MJO phase 7 given the time lag.

    A repeat of this week can’t be ruled out although of course it will be marginal and just that bit later into March .

    Well put Nick 👍

    • Like 4

    Model Output Discussion - Snow Watch limited edition

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    23 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

    For net wx 0900 Thur 9 th March 2023

    Looking at the 3 charts I have on my daily check on the NOAA output, there has been a slow increase in the contour heights from north to south. The latest shows the 540DM line just about on the Scottish border.(see below). The air with that still originates from fairly high latitudes over the Pacific and ne Russia so not especially mild. A 546DM contour is shown over southern England.

     

    With these charts being very consistent in their evolution I am pretty confident they will be shown to be about ‘right’ 6 days from now. So the deep cold has certainly been moved well north with even much of Scotland in the slightly less cold air. Turning to the 8-14, covering the period 16-22 March and the pattern remains much as the 6-10, the 540 DM is now over northern Scotland with the 546DM still over southern England.

    This all suggests that snow is going to become confined to the highest hills of northern England with only the far north of Scotland likely to be seeing any snow falling below about 5-800 ft. That is when there is any ppn! Turning to the ECMWF 10 day charts by the 13th onwards and the 850 MB charts show the -5 C line moving to the north of Scotland before returning to the south of Scotland by the 19th. As is often the case EC and NOAA are not on the same page so to speak but not on different chapters. Overall, along with the synoptic outputs from the 3 main models I would suggest that PM air with surface flow from a westerly point is the weather pattern 6-14 days from today. Neither very mild nor very cold weather patterns are likely for any period.

    Of course I may be talking nonsense but then weather forecasters can only do their best with outputs at their disposal; egg on face is a professional hazard so bear with UK Met as they grapple with the next 72-96 hours let alone beyond.

     

    Good read John, thanks.  2 of my posts back these were my thoughts also (but nowhere near this level of language).

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion - Snow Watch limited edition

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Stuie

    Hmm, this was `real time data` 12 hrs ago from NCEP.

    Could contain: Green, Nature, Outdoors, Sea, Water, Blackboard

    This is now.

    Could contain: Green, Nature, Outdoors, Sea, Water, Blackboard

    That isn`t much travel in 12 hrs of the LP`s considering the jet is pretty strong.

    EDIT: Saying that, the LP`s are a step ahead of the 12z which makes sense if you take 12z as 12 o`clock.

    EDIT 2:  ok, models are always 1 step behind current current outlook, will think differently from now on. 

    Could contain: Outdoors, Nature, Art

    • Like 2
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