Stuie
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Posts posted by Stuie
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6 minutes ago, Dundeeguy said:
The first met office warnings are out, north / east Scotland and north east England, mentions 2-5cm at low levels and 5-10cm on higher ground
As this is for the timeframe that is being discussed, there must be big confidence in the warnings to put them out this early.
Yes possibly updated closer to the time but on current runs, they look spot on which is slightly annoying.
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13 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:
That’s midday Monday, the interest lies late Monday into Tuesday onwards for most areas.. can the cold get ahead of the front ?
Well said, my mistake, I moved on 24hrs instead of 12. Yes interest is when you state.
EDIT: Regarding cold getting ahead, extremely fine margins from the overnight run. Probably too fine this far out which is a concern, see what 12z says.
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Just now, Ali1977 said:
Still looks like back edge snow could be possible on the front, unlikely amounting to much away from high ground though.
Not sure, there is a warm sector in the front making it occluded but we can only keep monitoring.
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20 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:
Certainly looks like the precip will be there (looking across various models) but will it be cold enough for a winter wonderland? I’ll be looking at DP, thickness / dam etc to see over the weekend .below is from UKV for Monday night, it’s always conservative with precip type and rarely shows all snow but this goes for a wintry mix with snow over high ground …
Overnight FAX chart has the 528 DAM in the North Sea at midnight. (for anywhere but Scotland)
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3 minutes ago, IDO said:
Yes, the op pushes that low too far north versus the ensembles and, for the south, is an outlier:
The south will still probably need the clustering below the mean 850s to be more than hopeful for a snow event.
At this stage of the game, it is disappointing that ECM is churning out mild outliers, but we are still in the game (IMBY).
That`s 2 runs in a row throwing that outlier. It`s definitely finding things tricky.
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ECM with the outlier of the month (only the 2nd)
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9 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:
Mogreps has a little more scatter this evening, especially further south as you can imagine. Still predominately cold though.
London and Birmingham for example .
just to add that some warm up slightly before dropping again .
Pretty short `blip`, actually a very short.
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1 minute ago, nick sussex said:
This looks like a major pattern change in the USA and if that’s the case best to wait to see if this new trend verifies and the downstream impacts .
NCEP in their monthly forecast for March forecast a change in the central and eastern USA caused by the MJO.
This doesn’t mean its curtains for us and it could well be that we end up with more blocking to the north .
What would be nice is if we can avoid any mild crud during the change !
Nice info Nick. The AO is totally confused at the min but can see why the changes (for X period of time). I believe currently the NW is the cold theme and ties into the current PNA obs.
AO -
Seems everywhere is messy.
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As comments are mainly about next Wednesday, the trend is there with the GFS less progressive. The weekends outputs (if not tomorrow) should give a clearer picture but here is the ECM/UKMO/GFS/GEM for T144
Totally agree with @Mucka about staying focussed closer to time but this does tie in with the NAO wanting to trend back towards neutral and has been the theme for many days showing that this wasn`t going to be a prolonged episode. The NAO is only based on the GFS so that`s 1 pinch of salt.
The PNA, this is purely from my own observations of any correlation but it is now trending towards positive also.
All these are just model assumptions and if there are effects from the 2nd warming then all the above could easily be trash.
Don`t want to see the above being the trend on Saturday though (if you like cold that is for this spell, March could throw another but...)
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2 minutes ago, Mucka said:
Take any detail beyond cold from 96h through to 144 with a huge dose of salt since the models differ greatly with position and orientation of high pressure to our NW with the interaction with strong polar heights and how fast it pulls away and weakens.
ECM looks far too progressive with its breakdown on the 9th an is an absolute worse case scenario so it will be interesting to see where it sits in its ensembles later.
It is also probably the least snowy before the breakdown although cold.
Hopefully it is a bit of an outlier by the 9th and tomorrows run will look very different.
Yep agree, need to reign the days in. Monday/Tues max.
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2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:
Hopefully an outlier and will change next run. Front dissipates and it’s cold and dry for many by midweek
Yep, just 1 run and it`s `somewhat` on it`s own for now, but certainly not for the bin.
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Oh... no...
But could be very interesting.
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This may be somewhat helpful for next week to define whether N/NNE/NE winds. I find it pretty hypnotic and a stress reliever too.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-0.66,37.79,659
Edit: And a great guide to see low and high pressure systems
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1 minute ago, nick sussex said:
You’ll have to wait till the ne easterly flow sets up later into March !
Seriously though there’s a lot going on over the next ten days . The set up looks like it could throw up a surprise or two .
Yep totally, kinda fun.
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2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:
I’m saying nothing ! Channel Lows are the most difficult things to forecast and we’re both going to be made to suffer given our respective locations!
can we switch it for a thames streamer?
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1 minute ago, Captain Shortwave said:
850s out for the UKMO, given a northerly flow I suspect areas close to windward coasts would see plenty of showers blowing in on that northerly.
Day 6 is probably drier (possible home grown showers), but that Atlantic system is waiting to move across the south.
Noticed the hint of a channel LP across some models. Maybe feasible?
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36 minutes ago, Kieran1960 said:
Shame it didn’t come earlier in winter tbh, temps next week still forcast 5 to 7 in the south, the snow would hang around for long during the day!
Just flicked through the GFS 06z run of 2M temps at 13:00 next week, never get above 4.
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The UKMO has a trough towards the SE on Sunday (and 528 DAM) as the colder air starts to come in. See how that plays out.
EDIT: Although it`s the GFS, the wet bulb level of 100 is around where the trough is on the FAX.
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54 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:
I use this sites Mogreps data
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Yesterdays teleconnections but still looking at the correlation between the PNA and NAO being negative giving us cold weather.
More for interest than any science.
PNA 7 day outlook NAO 7 day outlook
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10 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:
Looks great Matt . You left London for me to post
. A few go warmer at the end but a decent cluster stay cold , albeit with a slight uptick.
Here is Essex, will leave you with London. Been steady output for a few days now.
EDIT: Ties in with UKMO/ECM/GFS with Tuesday being the coldest 850`s. The cold front from the N Monday ish could be cold rain at the min.
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2 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:
The not so mighty Navgem , it can jog on tonight .
Absolute junk model, that`s why I agreed with your Mogreps posted and said it wasn`t a Navgem, giving it credence.
Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
The ICON wants to bring the cold in as a direct Northerly.