[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

7 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

I’d say there are some showing more up north but the majority keep the snow around the midlands and south into Friday

 

 

If we are going to go there, here is the wet bulb level 6PM Friday. Would be epic.

 

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

28 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Looking further ahead and could we be doing all this again. Mogreps seem to be showing 2 clusters going ahead . One of which is very cold , actually the 850s look slightly colder than the current spell , gosh .

Nice Mark. Looking at those I would the 528DAM is maybe around Carlisle. Glasgow without going into FI stays cold. Tons of scatter. When Glasgow goes + 850`s, then pattern probably over.

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

6 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Yeah I generally agree as well, though there is probably still enough time for even the 2nd one to shift north or south somewhat before we head into nowcasting territory.

I'd expect tonight now looks pretty much nailed on, especially for coastal counties (bar the very coastal strip which IMO may well turn too marginal after some brief snowfall for it to settle).

Most models seem like for tonight they are in the 2-5cms, though perhaps a chance of overperformance in some spots.

I posted (must be pages back now) the Wet bulb levels for tomorrow. IF the far South does get snow tomorrow (may tie in with the instability chart I also posted) then a true learning curve.

If XYZ happens then hopefully by next Winter, we will be much wiser.

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

Arpege 12z ensembles (only posting as many have faith in it`s precipitation accuracy)

Weds 8am                                                    Weds 10PM                                            Thurs 6pm

   

First 2 agree with, third in the air.

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

5 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

I’ll apologise for mentioning the snow in my location too much, I’ve chased this and spent about 8 hours a day on here and got a little excited!! 

TBH mate, you have only posted charts that back up your excitement, I have seen nearly every post. The whole thing about IMBY is not true, posting charts from the models that happens to have your location isn`t a fault (IMO).  Keep being excited.

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

Looking at the NH profile today and the AO, the outliers it has thrown add up. Looks at least a neutral AO.

NAO digging into staying negative.

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

6 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

Absolutely no bias from me regarding this Snow..some are gonna hit the jackpot and others are gonna miss out due to location and height! Now that would be a shame. I'm thinking Midland areas could be close to hitting a   That's not to say it won't all change again come the later runs! It's gonna be very interesting as to the met changing these warnings before tomorrow Lunchtime..I've a sneaky feeling later this evening we could see a change!

We are now at the stage of what will be will be.

I'm gonna wish all the best of luck for falling and settling snow.

Seriously though its pretty cool to even be in this position in March after a largely poor Winter..and just goes to show how PV damage puts us in the game.

So this time tomorrow some of you may be saying....what Blizzard...its just a couple of flakes..while others like Ali and Shaky probably running down a country lane naked..watch those extremities lads

No bias either Matt, only post what the models are showing. I still think FI is 24hrs at the min so as much as Thurs/Fri are modifying the LP track, who knows. 1 thing I have seen from today is the ECM is following the UKMO. Tomorrow? who knows. At least it isn`t drab mate. Take it easy.

Edit: I am supposed to be going to Lincolnshire Friday to a 2nd hand record store so maybe a bias to switch things up.

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

The dp’s are generally fairly borderline where the main precip occurs so I wouldn’t be certain that we won’t see more of a slush fest than a winter wonderland away from >400 feet.

its very tricky  

Very true Blue. I am currently -5 DP and does raise when systems come in. Also dependent on the wet bulb level and 850`s. Tricky yep.

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

ECM follows the UKMO and taking the LP Thurs straight across and ends up off Kent by Friday.

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

1 minute ago, DAVE_ALLEN said:

Is it just me or… does the Greeny high not seem to be in a rush to scarper off to the north west ?

Nope, pretty much a true Greenie high.

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

4 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Waiting for a @nick sussex faxgate comment. That has the centre much more South compared to the FAX.

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

4 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Surely surely they would have changed it and moved it south by now!!!!that looks way off!!!unless ecm goes north thats really poor from the guys that are drawing these faxes!!

Here is the 48hr, with trough for South. 528DAM well North.

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

FAX chart for Friday 00. (midnight Thurs) 528 DAM mid Scotland.

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

Regarding the LP (UKMO) on Friday, looking at the jet it does want to take it more on a Southerly track. 

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

4 minutes ago, andy_leics22 said:

Yes mate, they are only up until T27 at rhe moment though. Slowly rolling out the new 12z run. 

9PM tomorrow @sheikhy

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

UKMO takes the LP straight across the South on Friday. 850`s look okish too.

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Will be interesting to see the latest fax charts as this morning the forecaster still took the shallower low and modified that further north and deeper .

12 hours later the raw output is even less interested in a deep low further north .

Is it possible that the op still can’t see the deepening ? 

#Faxchartgate !

Faxchartgate lol, pencils at dawn. They are rolling out now.

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

Just now, Paul said:

12z is out already:

UKV Model Viewer | Netweather.tv

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

 

Ties in with the wet bulb levels. Away from higher ground South of London is wet.

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

12z wet bulb levels from the GFS.

Midday                                                            6PM

  

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Hmmmm judging from the pressure charts ecm seems further north for tomorrow!could anyone or @Battleground Snow confirm this please!!!

Looks like northern extent of the morning LP

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

There is some instability in the South tomorrow, this may be why snow further South is in the mix without 528DAM, wet bulb level and not very optimal - 850`s.

 

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

Midday wet bulb. Low level snow from London north possible.  (Wednesday)

 

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

Just now, sheikhy said:

Dude that pushes the snow all the way to leeds and manchester and gives south of m4 all rain!!surely not!!

With the 528DAM around the Wash, makes more sense.

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

Arpege 6z ensembles have gone for it (snow wise) Weds.

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

4 minutes ago, Liam Burge said:

Looking pretty good for most of southern england!

534DAM across the South, that is pushing it with hardly -6 850`s also.