Stuie
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Posts posted by Stuie
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3 hours ago, northwestsnow said:
Well, we got a good dumping last week and fair play to the coldies who chased it down,maybe its an age thing for me but I don't have the stomach for march April cold anymore .
That's me signing out until summer
Clocks go forward next weekend so I'm firmly in the looking for warmth camp now , heres to a nice summer and a Canadian SSW round about October to set us up for a prolonged freeze as we head toward December , we'll, a guy has to dream
Take care all ,until the next time
Take it easy mate. Maybe by then the ECM will stop trying to shove out outliers, couldn`t manage on the 0z lol
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Think the towel may have to be thrown in. Chasing a late month whatever spell isn`t something I can get on.
NAO pretty much neutral until end of month scatter. GEFS 850`s although look like scatter past the 20th, it`s only a few members. 2M temps not showing a dip either.
EDIT: Or you could go with the CFS into April if that`s your FI.
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Another day, another ECM outlier from 0z, await 12z... (Whenever they turn up)
EDIT: and here it is, blimey model is a mess at the min.
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Had some pretty decent hail, well biggest for a while.
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14 hours ago, Stuie said:
Chasing a flake or 2 tomorrow morning in EA. All very borderline, potentially back edge snow due to the wetbulb (2 hours after expected front) and cold air arrival.
Any other showers after this will be wintry up to early hours Weds.
Back edge wet snow/sleet NW Essex. That`s going to be it.
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32 minutes ago, Daniel* said:
Quiet in here now understandably as wintry potential becomes more remote away from north and hills. ECM op shows the ongoing influence of SSW with southerly tracking lows and Arctic air close, it’s not very springlike anytime soon. The GEFS not really interested. Potentially a very cold March for Scotland and northern half of country. 2022 was a ridiculously warm year in U.K. maybe 2023 less extreme.
Yep and getting to the point of no return. Noticed yet again the ECM has churned out a bizarre outlier, only 5/6 days ahead also. If this was a 1 off you would raise an eyebrow but it isn`t. I presume the upgrade coming this year for the ECM is less about higher resolution but more to combat this short range issue.
EDIT:
Maybe to give it a little slack, the GEFS control does also dip.
EDIT2: Regardless, the 2M temps from todays GEFS is possibly more bullish than yesterday.
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Current flow, to show tomorrows wintry risk.
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Chasing a flake or 2 tomorrow morning in EA. All very borderline, potentially back edge snow due to the wetbulb (2 hours after expected front) and cold air arrival.
Any other showers after this will be wintry up to early hours Weds.
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7 hours ago, Methuselah said:
It seems to me that the SSW has created something of a retro-season... Cold and snowy Arctic blasts were much more common back in the day. So far, this spring reminds me of 1975; I just hope it doesn't spoil the cricket!
Looking at the AO across the pond, agreed, messy stuff (all forecasts) and has to be SSW related.
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only recently started to look at where LP`s get some of their fuel from. This weeks are still drawing from the arctic.
EDIT:
FAX does show this. They must use NCEP/GFS data.
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Looking at potential for Tuesday snow, very slim pickings if any. Not much precipitation about but here is the Arpege and Arome`s take.
After the 2 day cold spell, looks like nudging double digit daytime temps for a while. (for the South) I don`t normally look past 4 or 5 days but the clustering on the GEFS is very tight.
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27 minutes ago, Stuie said:
Kind of think the SW flow will be flatter after today. The flow was almost predicted as a ridge over the UK but the Iberian HP looks a little suppressed.
6z`s may confirm.
Edit: If this real time data from NCEP is correct, look at the flow off the Iberian HP.
12z ECM has 2M highs for tomorrow less than the predicted 12Degs in England at lunch.
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FAX charts have been a little `iffy` recently so take these with a pinch. Chasing an event South of North Wales on Tuesday looks like wasted energy from todays run.
Note the 528 DAM
Monday Tuesday
The front from the North isn`t a cold front, it`s occluded also.
The 2nd FAX is ahead of the precipitation but even then the 528 DAM only gets to N Wales/Midlands.
The LP`s are pretty nailed on still to come in, it just doesn`t look cold enough for an `event`.
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56 minutes ago, Cambrian said:
Briefly milder for all with a southwesterly flow during Sunday and Monday as low pressures tracks across the north, before winds turn northwesterly bringing some properly cold air south again.
12z GFS operational run through to Tuesday night offers further falling snow for more or less all of the UK and Ireland and fresh coverings for many.
Interleaved with milder interludes, our wintry March continues - look out Cornwall !
Kind of think the SW flow will be flatter after today. The flow was almost predicted as a ridge over the UK but the Iberian HP looks a little suppressed.
6z`s may confirm.
Edit: If this real time data from NCEP is correct, look at the flow off the Iberian HP.
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42 minutes ago, Stuie said:
this front is early, was supposed to be around 10ish (there is the model lag). you do have heavier precip coming so see if you pick up again.
This hasn`t been modelled by the op`s very well, went against the jet stream. Anyway I have something imminent here, will report. DP is -2.4.
I do use the NW radar btw!
No snow/sleet/graupel/rain - have to wait for the next showers.
Cambs Uni data.
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You can see where Tuesdays headache comes from.
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16 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:
Snow has already turned to rain here at my location.
this front is early, was supposed to be around 10ish (there is the model lag). you do have heavier precip coming so see if you pick up again.
This hasn`t been modelled by the op`s very well, went against the jet stream. Anyway I have something imminent here, will report. DP is -2.4.
I do use the NW radar btw!
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23 hours ago, Stuie said:
That does seem to have `some legs` for now.
Regarding tomorrow night again, look where the LP or LP`s are currently and the forecast jet tomorrow. Track of tomorrows low could easily be more south and drag in less warmer air. Just having a punt.
Looking at current radar, this front isn`t swinging up from the SW, it is almost taking a NE/SE (like the jet) track with precipitation. Soon will be catching here.
Kind of pleased about that.
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Still having a look at tonight. Posted the 0C iso an hour earlier than the front to show the possibility of frontal snow. Pinch it might be snow until it clears.
Arome/Arpege precipitation charts.
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3 minutes ago, Kentspur said:
Not more rain lol. This spell has added to my list of failures 5hours of heavy snow that didnt settle the (the last hour& a bit did on roofs and cars) then about 20mins of it starting to settle as it finally got cold enough as it stopped leaving barely a dusting.
Im def in a snow shield zone when it comes to Northerlies, and channel lows- too late for a beast to save the day now hooe we get some proper easterlies next winter
The attached image is what I want to see next winter winds from Eastern Europe in -8 or colder 850HPA temps and minus dewpoints wetbulbs in play etc. Is it too much to ask.for just once? Not since late 2010 have we had a Decent snowfall here. 2018 was very disappointing given the temps with a South of East flow ruining the snow potential here too.
Glad others got some decent falls, and I dont expect any here atleast i had some in December I guess my fave time to see the white stuff.
I hear you. Dec I had 10cm of snow here from a bugger all LP that pivoted. Yeah had snow this morning, even though heavy it didn`t settle due to rain at 6AM.
Don`t want to touch the global warming issue but at some point, we will have an extreme winter. We broke heat records so keep spinning the wheel. This season has been a huge learning curve, that`s worth more than snow.
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ECM looks great for Tuesday with the 500hPa. Don`t be fooled. Not a lot has changed from a LP conveyor belt of LP`s which are going to be wet.
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21 minutes ago, SilverWolf said:
Kind of like today… a few days back is was looking at being mild right up through England today after snow event.. was snowing here in Glos at 8am, and was on the ground where I was working til 12 o’clock..
The little system that came out of Ireland earlier today has only just clipped Cornwall and kept it cold. All up for grabs I reckon!
Yep, mixing out colder air isn`t as straight forward as it sounds. There are no 0C isotherm snowploughs.
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Model Output Discussion - Snow Watch limited edition
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by Stuie
Flicking through the NH profile for the PV going forward. Current charts are slowly showing the recession of the PV due to the time of year. Chasing April? Not worth it.
2022 - April 15. 2023 - March 25
Due to always being excited for winter snow, never really looked in the opposite direction before looking for dry/warm. Will give it a bash this year.
EDIT: The trusty `CFS` for April 12.