Stuie
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Posts posted by Stuie
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24 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:
UKMO, GEM and GFS 12z runs all go for full retrogression, Euro 0z is the only hold out.
(UKMO only goes to day 7 but has already extended west)Plenty of water under the bridge before that point.
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CFS does seem to be fairly North with next weeks LP. Let`s monitor.
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Looking at fine details regarding next week. Posted last night about a possible shift North of LP(s).
GEFS from yesterday and today.
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Just now, RainAllNight said:
There are some lovely ensemble mean charts through the last week of that run.
From the meteograms it looks like the ECM ensemble is going to agree:
Yep, the trend is there mate, never like going that far ahead but it is a trend. Chasing warm instead of cold certainly is different.
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51 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:
It does look like trending NE which this far out is a good sign. Will look more into things tomorrow, as you said though, happy spring is on hold (ish)
Edit: quick look at the JS would indicate a Scottish issue but think will be heavily altered N closer to the time.
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46 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:
Merry Spring everyone...
Deary me, the GFS loves it`s LP`s. That 2nd chart is insane.
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Some may say I have been bashing the ECM but this model is broken, has been for months. Await the 12z but the 0z again shows a big outlier.
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Not sure if someone has posted this or not but if you want `nothing weather`, the GEFS gives it a bash.
Not hot, not cold, not wet... haven`t looked at wind but at least a bit of a drying out period in the South (London).
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Very nice ECM T168 chart, dry HP. Let`s get some temp rises.
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Haven`t looked at the ECM ENS for a few days but not shocked to see this 0z outlier. We await the model upgrade.
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Looking at Sunday... very damp it appears and not pleasant on the South coast. The Arpege IMO is normally quite reserved with precipitation (accurate more like) but it is going with this forecast.
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Find this slightly interesting. We have 2 LP`s to the West, cold air being dragged from the pole and also milder air being drawn from the Azores due to HP.
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Looks like a bit of a back edge squall line across EA tomorrow morning as the front passes through.
EDIT: Alaro hinting also (hour later)
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Looking at the AO across the pond, you can see why the GFS OP has really been in question also. SSW or not, agreement has been poor. If someone could post model verification stats from all models this year that would be great.
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Looking at ENS from the GEFS/ECM and ICON, the rest of the month is neither BBQ weather or SLEDGE. Wellies will be required though.
How the ECM has managed at least 5 days without and outlier (yes nearly further on) is a deffo reset internally. It`s tighter than a Scotsman`s wallet (Yip I am Scottish).
EDIT: Why the GFS continues with a snow row is beyond...
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This has to be the worst combo this week, wet and windy (gusty). ugh.
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8 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:
Times have not changed matey, but perception has......
When in 1960 did we have 40 degs? Not getting into this but enjoy life.
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4 hours ago, CreweCold said:
The two analogues for multi year La Niña into El Niño produced very hot and dry summers. ‘76 was one of them.
It’s backed up by the seasonals this year too. They all go for a summer of HP over the UK.
That sounds great for summer. I do wonder how hot `76 would have been in this current climate. If we do end up with HP over us, wouldn`t be surprised for us to be around the 40c mark again. Times have changed.
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Awaiting the ECM 12z ensembles but can we have a huge round of applause for it`s tightest run in ages, the 0z. See rebooting does work.
EDIT: 12z back to the wobbles with a near outlier.
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16 minutes ago, minus10 said:
Well the gfs 12z op, mean and long term mean all kinda singing from the same song sheet later in the run which is saying.....
......average fayre for late March........
Yep as much as the scatter may raise eyebrows, the 2M temps for London put things in perspective.
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Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by Stuie
Very impressive, looks a solid dive into Dec. NAO same.