StingJet

You'd be ahead of Beka if she removed all her "what is sun" and "what is blue sky" posts

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Funny you should mention this Thunders, we had a small tremor here the other night around 11:30pm 1.5 on the RS , I was just dropping off to sleep and heard the sound of a distant deep rumble of thunder, checked the dop radar and not a thunderstorm within a 100 miles , thought it odd .. next morning many had reported the rumble on social media , turns out it was a tremor , some 12km sub surface

Remember ! the weather at it's most violent takes no prisoners.. safety first above all !

Hi Alexis, Similar here with Storm Agnes , forecast winds of 75mph + later in the afternoon (coinciding with school finish time), no school closure notification, almost as if school attendance is more important than the safety of the children and parents / careers doing the school run. My children had the day off , and I sent a very blunt email to school

Correct , current wind flow over the UK is down to the primary low just to nw of Ireland, coupled with weather fronts / trough transitioning the UK, gusty winds here earlier on the occluded front transitioning east through Wales toward England Ciaran will start to make its presence felt this evening as it tracks in on the sw approaches Weather Enthusiast91 a little over enthusiastic with Ciaran's approach timing ECM @ 1500hrs has Ciaran down at 965mb , pressure dropping like a stone, all other models circa 967mb Ciaran is somewhere close to Marine Observation Buoy K1 at present https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/specialist-forecasts/coast-and-sea/observations What is truly staggering, Ciaran has dropped 27mb central pressure in just 7 hrs (994mb @0800hrs to 967mb @1500hrs) That is some rapid / explosive cyclogenesis

Seasons appear to be completely banjaxed now ,, anything can happen , given this year to date

Yup .. July and August were horrific here, just in time for the school holidays , a waste of two summer months, therefore a springlike November would n't go a miss

My stats are in for October, when compared to the 1991-2020 Mean: Warmer by day and by night, duller and wetter I am detecting a trend here Interesting .. Oct-22 was warmer than 2023, duller but not as wet

Only 4 months til we are out the other side

Quite surprised on that stat, I always viewed Nottingham as a drier part of England I remember back in the mid 90's August - hot and humid down south 30c+ with a cold front heading down the UK from the north, it was early evening and we were driving back to Stockport from Peterborough via Nottingham, just as the cold front hit Nottingham, we drove straight into something I have never experienced prior to, or since , that of supercell Thunderstorm. On approach to Nottingham from the south leaving behind blue skies and heat ,what lay before us was the most malevolent of black skies, soon we were consumed by it , and all hell broke loose , intense rain, destructive winds up at 100mph , destroying trees , debris flying everywhere , lightning and thunder the likes God had never seen. One bolt came down just ahead of us , struck a tree by the road and duly exploded, the car was bouncing around as intense gusts hit , we punched the core ...... 20 mins later we were out into clear skies , we pulled over to look back at what we had just driven through, I said to my girlfriend "shall we go back in" ,, the answer was NO Effing chance .. . ever since then I have gained a passion for chasing t-storms , In those days we did n't have the same weather info as we do now, I did convince myself that what we experienced was an F1 Tornado

Latest inshore waters forecast issued 01/11/23 00:01 UTC has the area Lyme Regis to Land End including the Isle of Scilly - cyclonic storm 10 or violent storm 11 Most of the south coast is cyclonic gale 8 to storm 10, and Lands End to St Davids Head Including the Bristol Channel - cyclonic severe gale 9 or storm 10

According to the Meto Deep Dive, Nottinghamshire had it wettest October on record along with "counties" in NE Scotland, you have a bag full of "moaning credits"

Interesting stat (albeit forecast) from the MetO Deep Dive: Storm Ciaran will record the lowest central pressure of circa 952mb for England , on record , for November, beating the previous record set in 1916 of 959mb

Thursday 0600z MSLP and Wind Gust charts: ECM: UKV: GFS: Icon-EU & the same charts for 12z ECM: UKV: GFS: Icon-EU:

Storm Ciaran a difficult one to track , as each model update from the main players is playing out different perms as to track, depth and intensity of winds Suffice to say at this stage the MetO warning covers all possible "likely" scenarios At this stage all coasts from Ilfracombe to Lands End , Scilly Isles, Channel Isles and Lands End to the Dover Straits are in the line of fire for serious winds The inshore waters forecast at present indicative that Lyme Regis to Lands End Including the Scilly Isles could see the highest of winds , at present , the following 24 hrs forecast only takes us to 0600hrs Thursday, which as Ciaran tracks in and east / Ne would extend the strongest of winds eastwards along the channel

Not quite the same for me here mate - October 2023 (below right) has been warmer, wetter, and duller than Apr-18 (below left) That said , here is not really "in scope" for comparison with anywhere in England, perhaps the western fringes of Cumbria

lol you have a memory to behold Baddie ,, I cannot even remember what I did yesterday . let alone how October compares with April 2018, without deep diving into the stats bin

Congrats on your 50th mate

Not to mention the Great Storm of the 15/16th Oct 1987 , I cannot recall how much rain fell with this one event , but it delivered some of the strongest winds the UK has had to deal with

Certainly looking like entering explosive cyclogenesis noon Wednesday to noon Thursday with a potential 30mb drop ... .or more Will it be the Met or European agency that names this one ? Perhaps another day or so of monitoring the evolution

Slight but quite significant changes this morning from ECM and GFS , not as deep, a little further south and an expanded area of central core (lighter winds) UKV however going into Nuke mode , St. Catherine's Point I.o.W shown below, The western approaches to the English Channel not the place to be Wednesday night into Thursday, 120mph+ gusts battering into the Brest and Cherbourg Pens, Channel Isles in the line of fire. Hopefully the less intense ECM and GFS solutions will be closer to actual, as the UKV looks exceptionally windy for all channel coasts be that French or English sides Looking at most south coast spot data (UKV) I.o.W and east to Dover all registering gusts in excess of 100mph i.e. Bexhill 108mph 12 noon Noting that the recent Agnes tended to peak 4/5 days out and gradually weakened on the run up to the actual forecast "hit" day. ECM and GFS showing this already So by Wednesday "named storm" will be just a windy day

Oops

hmmm .. there are wind storms and there are WIND STORMS (Tropical Storm Systems aside)