onlyME

Never having enough time. Heatwave ended on August 27. On Aug 28,29 and 30,it was also very warm,but a some degrees cooler. Today I have pleasant summer weather with some clouds. Generally,in Croatia temperatures are varying between 25 and 33 Celsius. It is mainly sunny,but there are some clouds,mainly cumuluses.

Jose is again a minimal tropical storm (35 kt). It will become post - tropical because of shear and cooler waters according to NHC. Bye,Jose! See you in 2017!

Iceberg,Irene still has 958 mb pressure and it still can make dangerous storm surge. Note that the winds in Irene increase with height;skyscrapers will receive stronger winds than the low buildings.

Wow! I didn't know that! Even before noon temperatures are higher than 30 Celsius except in mountains and higher hills. More precisely,temperatures are varying between 28 and 37 (!) I think yesterday Zavižan,Croatia (1594 meters above sea level) measured 27,2 Celsius.

Irene is nearly Category 3 hurricane. Sustained winds are 110 mph,and gusting to 130 mph. Irene is wobbling between W and WNW motion. Irene has impressive appearance for Category 2 hurricane. Infrared satellite photo ---> 5 days forecast from Weather Underground has it striking Outer Banks,passing east of Delmarva and crossing Long Island I think Irene would be retired.

Heatwave. In Croatia temperatures are now varying between 30 and 40 Celsius. In mountains temperatures are mainly below 30 Celsius.How pleasant! In newspapaper Jutarnji list(Morning Leaf) I read that heat will end on Sep 11. This is funny because you cannot precisely forecast it.

Irene is forecasted to become a Category 4 major hurricane when located (I think) east of Cape Canaveral. Forecast

Yesterday in northern Croatia were severe thunderstorms which also affected Hungary. This looks like a tropical storm centered over Hungary!! (sat image from yesterday) But it was only a cold front. Maximal temperatures will vary between 33 and 40 Celsius in southern Croatia. In northern Croatia it is less hot and daily maxima there will vary between 28 and 35 Celsius.

Fernanda's now a moderate 55 mph tropical storm which will soon cross into CPAC. Deep convection over Fernanda has increased.

Greg is now a Category 1 hurricane and Greg is expected to intensify to Category 2 while moving WNW-ard. As Greg moves over colder waters,it will turn westward and dissipate. Discussion from NHC ----> late afternoon visible satellite images showed a banding eyefeature that became obscured as new convection developed nearthe center around sunset. The small eye feature was also evidentin a 2025 UTC trmm overpass. Unfortunately...there has been noadditional microwave imagery since that time. Although Dvorak finalT-numbers from TAFB and SAB were 4.0 and 3.5...respectively...thedata T-numbers from both agencies were 4.0. This supportsincreasing the wind speed to 65 kt. Greg becomes the sixthhurricane in the eastern Pacific basin in 2011. Sea surface temperatures along the path of Greg gradually coolthroughout the forecast period...however the cyclone is forecastto remain over 27-28 degree celsius water for another 24 hours orso. During that time...shear is expected to remain light whichshould allow for additional strengthening. The updated forecastindicates a peak intensity of 85 kt in 24 hours and is in bestagreement with the SHIPS/lgem guidance. Thereafter...steadyweakening is shown as Greg is forecast to move over decreasingSSTs. The initial motion remains a brisk 285/19. Greg continues to besteered quickly west-northwestward between a large mid/upper-levelridge over the southern United States and a cyclonic gyre to thesouthwest of the cyclone. As the gyre weakens during the next 24hours...Greg should turn westward and slow down. The westernportion of the ridge is forecast to weaken in a couple of days as atrough approaches the West Coast of the United States. This shouldresult in a further reduction of forward speed. The models are ingood agreement on this scenario...but the latest guidance envelopehas shifted southward at 72 hours and beyond. This requires asouthward adjustment to the track in the latter portion of theforecast period. Forecast positions and Max winds init 18/0300z 17.5n 108.3w 65 kt 75 mph 12h 18/1200z 18.1n 110.8w 75 kt 85 mph 24h 19/0000z 18.6n 113.4w 85 kt 100 mph 36h 19/1200z 18.9n 115.4w 75 kt 85 mph 48h 20/0000z 19.0n 117.5w 65 kt 75 mph 72h 21/0000z 19.0n 120.0w 50 kt 60 mph 96h 22/0000z 19.0n 122.5w 35 kt 40 mph120h 23/0000z 19.0n 124.5w 25 kt 30 mph...Post-trop/remnt low $$forecaster Brown

Even at 9:39,temperatures on the coast are varying between 26 and 32 Celsius. In remainder of Croatia,it is cooler and temperatures are varying between 18 and 27 Celsius. Today temperatures may be higher than 35 Celsius at some places. Sun is shining

In My Opinion (IMO) this only needs some convection to get a name.

Late on yesterday some rain had fallen over north of Croatia because of front,but front had little effect on overall Croatia. Now,at 25 past 9 am,the coast is much warmer than remainder of Croatia and on the coast temperatures are varying between 24 and 30 Celsius. In remainder of Croatia temperatures are varying between 19 and 24.

I read that last snow in Wellington has fallen in 1939. Is it true?!

Gert is still at 50 kt(60 mph) and it is unlikely to intensify any more. Discussion from NHC ---> the low-level center of the tropical cyclone appears to be near thenortheastern edge of the main mass of deep convection...andmicrowave data suggest some northeastward tilt of the center withheight. Dvorak estimates of intensity range from 35 to 55 kt andthe current intensity is held at 50 kt for this advisory. Gertshould be traversing warm water for only another 12 to 18 hours...so weakening is likely to commence in 24 hours...if not sooner. The official intensity forecast is in line with the statistical-dynamical guidance. Global models show the system becomingembedded within a baroclinic zone in 36 hours and becoming absorbedby a large North Atlantic low in 2 to 3 days. The officialforecast follows this scenario.Center fixes have become more uncertain this evening but my bestestimate is that there has been an increase in forward speed andthe motion is now near 030/16. Gert is being swept up in the flowahead of a large trough moving off the U.S. East Coast. A gradualturn to the right is anticipated as the cyclone moves into higherlatitudes and becomes influenced by a more zonal steering current. Thd official track forecast is a little to the north of theprevious one and on the south side of the guidance suite.Forecast positions and Max winds init 16/0300z 34.7n 61.6w 50 kt 60 mph 12h 16/1200z 37.3n 59.6w 50 kt 60 mph 24h 17/0000z 40.8n 55.0w 50 kt 60 mph 36h 17/1200z 44.0n 49.0w 45 kt 50 mph...Post-trop/extratrop 48h 18/0000z 46.5n 41.5w 40 kt 45 mph...Post-trop/extratrop 72h 19/0000z...dissipated $$forecaster Pasch

Little hotter than yesterday. Temperatures are varying between 26 and 32 C. Of course,it will be 1-3 C warmer at 3 pm.

We're having lovely summer weather. In Croatia temperatures are now varying from 24 to 31 Celsius. This IS real summer which I love.

Look what I've found on STORM2K forum: This is from Franklin 2005: TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SAT JUL 23 2005 FRANKLIN...THE STORM...NOT THE FORECASTER...HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT. Amusing that it was also on a Saturday. I was thinking "Franklin...the storm...not the forecaster...has little time left to live." Will we see more antics with this storm? From that same discussion (and again, fits perfectly): IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT LITTLE OR NOTHING WILL BE LEFT OF FRANKLIN...THE STORM...NOT THE FORECASTER...IN 2-3 DAYS.

Invest 95L became a TD 6

As seen on the following image,cloud mass east of Carolinas is at 20 %,cloud mass 800 miles NEward of northern Leewards is at 20 %,Invest 92L is down to 30 &,and Invest 93L is at 30 %. Image TWO outlooks ZCZC MIATWOAT ALLTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMMTROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL200 AM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... 1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 1000 MILES WEST OFTHE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT NEAR 15 MPH.THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED...AND SATELLITEIMAGERY SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM MAY CURRENTLY BE ENCOUNTERING A DRIERAND MORE STABLE AIR MASS. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AREEXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXTSEVERAL DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OFBECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 2. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THESOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESSAND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTEDTO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXTSEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONEDURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 3. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ABOUT250 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTERORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ADDITIONAL SLOWDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE THISDISTURBANCE MERGES WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOWCHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. 4. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROADLOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 800 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARDISLANDS. SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OFDAYS AS THE LOW MOVES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THISSYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICALCYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS.$$FORECASTER BEVENNNNN

Now temperatures in Croatia are varying from 23 to 30 Celsius. The temperatures are pretty much equally distributed through Croatia,but it's little warmer on the coast. Sunny and cloud free weather continues...

Yesterday it was cool,windy and perfectly sunny! Maximum temperatures in Croatia were varying from 18 to 29 Celsius. Today it is less windy and warmer,but it is sunny like yesterday. Maximum temperatures are varying from 23 to 32 Celsius. On sat imagery I see a lot of clouds over Great Britain rolling. <_< Please don't be envy!

The new forum appearance is excellent except the light yellow color,and it functions on my account perfectly.

Sorry for no posting,you human beings! Well,last 4-7 days of August in Croatia we had nice and hot weather with max temperatures varying from 28 to36 Celsius in coastal Croatia,and max temperatures varying from 25 to 35 Celsius in north and northeast Croatia Now a cold front is passing over northeast Croatia. In north and northeast Croatia temperatures are varying now from 17 to 23 Celsius. The cold front did not affect coastal Croatia as much as north and northeast,and in coastal Croatia temperatures are now varying from 23 to 33 Celsius.

Ciklon means cyclone.