onlyME

Another mainly unstable and steamy day. Today's maximum temperatures were from 21 to 32 Celsius.

It won't surprise me if Adrian goes to Cat4. Discussion ...Adrian becomes a major hurricane with 115 mph winds well off the Pacific coast of Mexico... summary of 800 am PDT...1500 UTC...information ---------------------------------------------- location...14.2n 104.1w about 440 mi...710 km SSE of Cabo Corrientes Mexico maximum sustained winds...115 mph...185 km/h present movement...WNW or 285 degrees at 9 mph...15 km/h minimum central pressure...960 mb...28.35 inches watches and warnings -------------------- summary of watches and warnings in effect... none. Discussion and 48-hour outlook ------------------------------ at 800 am PDT...1500 UTC...the eye of major Hurricane Adrian was located near latitude 14.2 north...longitude 104.1 west. Adrian is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph...15 km/h...and this general motion is expected to continue during the next two days...keeping the hurricane away from the coast of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 115 mph...185 km/h...with higher gusts. Adrian is a category three hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale. Some additional strengthening could occur today or Friday...but a gradual weakening should begin thereafter. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles...45 km...from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 80 miles...130 km. Estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb...28.35 inches. Hazards affecting land ---------------------- surf...swells generated by Adrian will continue to affect a portion of the southwestern coast of Mexico today through at least early this weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Next advisory ------------- next complete advisory...200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Avila

A satellite image: I do not like that E Pacific systems.They are sooo boring to watch... I do not like when people die because of tropical storms but... Discussion: the well-defined low pressure system centered about 365 miles south of Acapulco Mexico has now developed sufficiently organized deep convection to be classified a tropical depression...the first of the 2011 eastern North Pacific hurricane season. Satellite classifications are 2.0 and 1.5 from TAFB and SAB...respectively. Based on these data and an ascat pass around 0430 UTC...the initial intensity is set at 25 kt. The atmospheric and oceanic environments are quite favorable for intensification. The combination of vertical wind shear less than 10 kt and sea surface temperatures near 30 c should allow the depression to steadily strengthen for the next 3 to 4 days...which is unanimously shown by the intensity guidance models. The official forecast is closest to the SHIPS guidance and brings the depression to tropical storm strength within 24 hours and to a hurricane within 3 days. The cyclone is expected to move over cooler water by the end of the forecast period...which should result in weakening. The depression is currently in weak steering currents with a mid- to upper-level low to its northeast over the Gulf of Mexico and a mid-level ridge to its northwest over northern Mexico. This pattern will likely cause a slow northwestward motion for the next 24 to 36 hours. Between 36 and 96 hours...a gradual Bend to the west-northwest is forecast as the ridge strengthens to the north of the cyclone. By day 5...the ridge is anticipated to weaken due to an approaching shortwave trough. The official track forecast is basically a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models. The GFDL and HWRF models...which move the system northward for the next few days... appear unrealistic and are considered outliers at this time. Forecast positions and Max winds init 07/1500z 11.6n 100.0w 25 kt 30 mph 12h 08/0000z 11.9n 100.2w 30 kt 35 mph 24h 08/1200z 12.5n 100.5w 35 kt 40 mph 36h 09/0000z 13.2n 101.0w 45 kt 50 mph 48h 09/1200z 14.0n 101.9w 55 kt 65 mph 72h 10/1200z 15.1n 103.8w 70 kt 80 mph 96h 11/1200z 15.5n 105.5w 75 kt 85 mph 120h 12/1200z 16.5n 107.5w 65 kt 75 mph $$ forecaster cangialosi

Hi!Hello! Today we had an unstable day with pretty much cloudiness. A strong cumulonimbus centered near Venice was bringing heavy rain to northwestern Croatia. Today's maximum temperatures were from 22 to 32 Celsius. It is steamy and hot.

It isn't clear to me why models are keen of this disorganized and weak cloud mass.

Convection exploded southeast of Jamaica,but dry air is drawn into this system from northwest into southern semicircle.

Color code: Dark blue-remnants/predecessor low Sky blue-TD Green-TS Yellow-Cat1 Orange-Cat2 Red-Cat3 Purple-Cat4 Fuchsia-Cat5

Howdy folks! Today's maximum temperatures were from 25 to 35(!) Celsius. Strong cumulonimbuses(possible supercells)are growing in Croatia and bringing strong thunderstorms with sharp temperature drops. A thunderstorm is spoiling a Pope's visit in Croatian capital,Zagreb. Summer finally came.

I have prediction for Emily. Forms in Mediterranean sea west of Creta,then slowly intensifies to Cat2 hurricane in Otranto Strait,and once in Adriatic,it intensifies to small but powerful Cat5 hurricane fed by humid and unstable air from Balkans.Then it brushes Croatian coast with weakening from 180 mph 921 mb Cat5 to 125 mph 949 mb Cat3.Then it turns abruptly westward and totallly destroys Venice as a low-end Cat4 with 939 mb pressure.Then it recurves northeastward in a wake of acold front and dissipates on extreme southeastern Austria.It merged with the cold front and created catastrophic thunderstorms all over Hungary. August 11-19(remnants dissipated in a cold front on August 22 over Romania and Bulgaria). It does not get retired. Tomorrow I will upload a tracking map.

Thanks for professional and excellent answer! But,is that possible?Subtropical storm frming south of Madagascar on 32 south and becoming extratropical on 36 south?

93L is looking sheared. NHC invest outlooks: ZCZC MIATWOAT ALLTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMMTROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL200 AM EDT FRI JUN 3 2011FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...1. A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED A FEW HUNDRED MILES EAST OFNICARAGUA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE REGION OF DISORGANIZEDCLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEANSEA. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS LIKELY TO BE SLOW TOOCCUR...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEMBECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AFTERTHAT TIME. HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDESOVER PORTIONS OF HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND JAMAICA OVERTHE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.<a name="2">2. A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS PRODUCING LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACOUPLE HUNDRED MILES NORTHWEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING HOSTILE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS ALOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICALCYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15MPH.ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS.$$FORECASTER BLAKENNNN

Howdy folks! Cold front didn't come,and we are mainly having warm weather all the time. Convective and other cloudiness formation is favored because of unstable air. Today's maximum temperatures will be from 22 to 32 Celsius. Local cumulonimbuses are possible. Weather is more like in mid-May,but last (i think)dozen of years early June is unstable.

Songda become extratropical yesterdaj mornng,but JTWC put it active all morning and afternoon.I think they wanted earliest tropical storm landfall in Japan in history.

Very warm is there in Croatia,but tomorrow a cold front will cool things off. Today's max temperatures were from 25 to 34 Celsius. It is sunny.

Here in Croatia drought ended in May in most of Croatia with numerous thunderstorms and some Mediterranean low pressures.Howewer,some parts of northern Croatia are still in drought.We had dry January,dry February,little below normal precipitation March,extreme dry April and little below normal precipitation to wet May.We also have warm weather.

Now i think it will go to Philippe which will be in November and hit Florida,later become extratropical over SW Georgia,and become a strong blizzard raging through east US coast.

Songda photogallery Satellite images Microwawes Forecast Songda is a Category 4 supertyphoon with sustained winds of 150 mph and it will recurve north-northeastward ahead of trough Songda started to interact with. Cloud tops are slightly warming. Songda is undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle and new eyewall is developing in decaying outer eyewall.

Songda is a strong Category 3 typhoon with winds about 120 mph. 5-day forecast:

Same as on 21 May but little warmer with temperatures from 22 to 34 Celsius. In some coastal towns temperatures are exceeding 20 Celsius all the night. Summer.

A burst of convection covered a before partially exposed LLCC. TD4 is not in very favorable environment and NW shear is affecting TD4. A forecast for TD4 forecasts recurving to east of Luzon and track to Japan.

After low,sunny and unstable days are ahead. Convective cloudiness is favored. Temperatures are from 18 to 33 Celsius. New low over Algeria and Tunisia is coming to Croatia.

I think it could become a Tropical Storm Adrian,the first named tropical storm of the 2011 in E.Pacific. It looks like it is exhibiting a weak circulation.

Same as yesterday. Cloudy and windy. I hate it. Temperatures from 8 to 21 Celsius.

Yes,the ITCZ position is the main factor.Even with strong shear and marginal SSTs some storms will form if the ITCZ is nough far from equator.

Cool and wet.Today the cold front is passing through Croatia and bringing some rain. In higher mountains(above 1000-1300 m) some SNOW is expected. In Croatia temperatures are from 8 to 23 Celsius.