onlyME

Quite interesting system. Satellite image

Could the mod pin this thread?

When will the first named storm form? Which storm will be the first hurricane? Which storm will be the first major hurricane? Which storm will be the first Cat5? Which storm will be the strongest? Which storm will be the last? When the last storm will form? How many landfalls will the US have? Date when is first named storm:Late June First hurricane:Bret First major hurricane:Don First Cat5:Gert Strongest storm:Jose Last storm:Ophelia Date of last storm:early December Number of US landfalls:4,1 on Eastern Seaboard

Slightly warmer.17 to 27 Celsius.Sunny with few cumuluses.

You in America have totally CRAZY weather!Only thing comparable with US is drought.From 1st January we had only 3,5 inches of rain.We'll have huge fires in summer.

Errol is now a 35 mph TD located near Timor.It is disorganized and it will dissipate. Public advisory from JTWC: TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S, (ERROL),LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 35 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF KUPANG, WEST TIMOR, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 01 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE OVER-LAND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM COUPLED WITH 15 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAVE WEAKENED THE SYSTEM DRASTICALLY. OBSERVATIONS FROM THE NEAREST WEATHER STATION (KUPANG, INDONESIA) SHOW LIGHT WINDS AND RISING PRESSURE. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS SUBSTANTIAL WARMING OF THE CLOUD TOPS AND A PRONOUNCED TREND TOWARD DISORGANIZATION. AN 181008Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE INDICATES COMPLETE DISINTEGRATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD BANDING AND THE 91GHZ IMAGE SHOWS ALMOST NO DEEP CONVECTION. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF 15 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, DRIER AIR UPSTREAM, AND TOPOGRAPHICAL INTERFERENCE FROM THE LESSER SUNDAS WILL PREVENT 21S FROM RE-INTENSIFYING AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD ALONG 10 DEGREES SOUTH. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 10 FEET.

Warm and sunny.Temperatures from 15 to 25 Celsius.Spring.

Errol is still moving northwestward at 1 mph and I think Errol has a nice moisture envelope.Errol has 45 mph winds. JTWC satellite image and public advisory TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S, (ERROL),LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 01 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. PRIOR TO ITS RECENT MOVEMENT, 21S HAD REVERSED COURSE AND TRACKED NORTHEAST FOR APPROXIMATELY 12 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY DURING THE COURSE CHANGE SHOWED THE TWO MAJOR CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)CONVERGE AND PRODUCE A SUBSTANTIAL BURST OF CONVECTION. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM AL TARI AIRPORT (WATT) DURING THE PROCESS REVEAL A SURGE OF SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AS THE SYSTEM CONSOLIDATED. A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES BETWEEN 170633Z AND 170903Z INDICATE POOR ORGANIZATION AND A LACK OF BANDING IN THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD STRUCTURE BUT AN OVERALL INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION. THE RETROGRADE TO THE NORTHEAST ACTED TO KEEP THE SYSTEM UNDER MORE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS, DIRECTLY UNDER THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF HIGHLY DIFFLUENT FLOW AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPANDING FIELD OF DEEP MOISTURE AROUND THE SYSTEM, ALTHOUGH OUTFLOW REMAINS SUPPRESSED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. ALSO IMPEDING INTENSITY ARE SOUTHEASTERLIES FLOWING OFF-SHORE OF AUSTRALIA, WHICH ARE PUMPING DRY AIR INTO THE BOUNDARY AND MID-LEVELS OF THE SYSTEM. AN UPSTREAM SOUNDING FROM BROOME, AUSTRALIA SHOWED A PRONOUNCED INVERSION NEAR 10KFT WITH VERY DRY AIR ABOVE THE INVERSION. UNTIL THE RECENT SURGE IN CONVECTION, THE DRY AIR WAS CLEARLY WEAKENING THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND A CIMSS SATCON ESTIMATE OF 40 KNOTS. A MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF 21S WILL ACT TO KEEP IT OVER WARM WATERS AND UNDER FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS, BUT THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE COUNTERED BY THE WEAKENING INFLUENCES OF LAND INTERACTION WITH TIMOR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT INTO THE MID-LEVELS. ALTHOUGH DYNAMIC AIDS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM, THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT DISPARITY THEM. THE FORECAST TRACK FAVORS THE WESTWARD SOLUTION OF ECMWF, STAYING BETWEEN ECMWF AND CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180300Z AND 181500Z.

Mild and cloudy.Temperatures from 12 to 22.Spring.

Errol's public advisory: Tropical cyclone 21s, (errol), has tracked northwest at 01 knotsduring the past six hours. The slow northwestward movement of thesystem has kept it under the sub-tropical ridge axis in a region offavorable upper level conditions, with strong divergence aloft andweak vertical wind shear. The track is also keeping the low levelcirculation center (LLCC) over favorably warm waters (28-29 degreescelsius). The current intensity estimate is based on a 160127 ascatpass combined with an average of Dvorak estimates of 35 knots frompgtw, 65 knots from adrm, and 45 knots from knes. Animated watervapor imagery shows a well-developed poleward outflow channel,although some dry air to the distant southwest is beginning tosuppress outflow over the southwestern quadrant. Earlier visualimagery also shows a marked absence of convection over the southernsemi-Circle of the system, as do total precipitable water loops,which show a wide expanse of dry air off the northwest coast ofAustralia. A continued west-northwestward movement of the low levelcirculation center (LLCC) will allow the system to develop steadilyin a moist environment, whereas any movement to the south of westshould result in rapid weakening. Dynamic aids show a wide disparityin track. The track forecast favors ECMWF and stays north ofconsensus, between ECMWF and consensus. The intensity forecast isbased on the favorable conditions provided by a track under the sub-tropical ridge axis, slowed somewhat by land interaction with themaritime continent and the effects of dry air and increasing shearover the southwestern quadrant. Maximum significant wave height at160600z is 17 feet. We could have Hurricane Errol.

Temperatures from 10 to 20 Celsius.There are some cumuluses.Spring.In mountains temperatures are from 0 to 8 Celsius.

Mountains and hills which are higher than 800 meters are full of snow! Front passed through Croatia and it brought heavy rainfall and snowfall!

Front is coming.Temperature drop in Zagreb: Temperatura means temperature and udari vjetra means wind gusts. Temps from 7 to 22 Celsius.

Good review.A lot of storms were short-lived and had exposed centers.Congrats!

Temperatures from 15 to 27 Celsius.Sunny.Cold outbreak is forecasted for Wednesday,April 13.

Same as yesterday but little hotter.Temperatures from 18 to 30!

Very warm.Temperatures from 18 to 28 Celsius.Summer is coming.

Weather ship,we have subforum Extreme Weather Worldwide and please put threads like it there.

Even in the early morning temperatures from 10 to 16 Celsius.Todav is expected from 17 to 27 Celsius.

Warm and sunny.Temperatures from 16 to 26 Celsius.Summer is slightly coming.

Another TD in April. Forecast Satellite image Public Advisory remarks:050900z position near 16.5n 142.0e.Tropical depression (td) 02w (two), located approximately 270 nmnorthwest of Anderson AFB, Guam, has tracked east-northeastward at19 knots over the past six hours. Animated multispectral satelliteimagery shows a partially exposed low level circulation center withweakening deep convection sheared to the northeast. A 050353z amsremicrowave image reveals tightly curved low level convective banding,from which the initial position is based with good confidence. Theinitial intensity is based on pgtw and knes Dvorak estimates of 25to 35 knots. Upper level analysis indicates TD 02w is located justpoleward of the subtropical ridge axis in an area of moderate tohigh vertical wind shear (approximately 25 to 30 knots) and polewardoutflow is extremely favorable into the midlatitude flow. Seasurface temperatures remain favorable. TD 02w is quickly trackingalong the edge of the baroclinic zone and along the northwesternperiphery of a subtropical steering ridge. Within the next 12 hours,TD 02w should begin to interact with the baroclinic zone as amidlatitude trough located to the north digs southward. By tau 24,TD 02w is forecast to transition into a gale-force extratropicallow. However, an alternate scenario is possible where the systembecomes sheared and dissipates before completing ett. Numericalmodel guidance is in good agreement with this scenario, except forGFDN, which tracks TD 02w eastward and slower than the other models.This is unlikely as the system completes ett and this forecast is ingood agreement with NOGAPS,GFS, ukmo, and ECMWF. Maximum significantwave height at 050600z is 10 feet. Next warnings at 051500z, 052100zand 060300z.//

Cold front passed and brought some rain.Temperatures from 8 to 21 Celsius.Cooler,windy and cloudy.

But there was more Cat 4-5 tropical cyclones than average.2 years before I read one text that says the TCs will be more intense and there it will be less TCs.

Dissipating,20 mph winds.Me thinks the gang from JTWC didn't locate the center well. I located the center with purple color.

Temps from 16 to 28 Celsius.Getting cloudy.Tomorrow the front will pass through Croatia and it will bring some rain.