Summer Sun

ECM once again shows a nasty low crossing north of Scotland for Christmas day The ensemble has it at 960mb GFS continues to show an unsettled day although mild for the south The GFS ensemble has the low at 955mb

Meteo Group and MetDesk have tweeted these pictures of ECM for Christmas day http://news.sky.com/...e-wet-and-windy

Christmas Weather: Britain To Be Wet And Windy Britons hoping for a white Christmas are ikely to be disappointed as early forecasts suggest very wet and windy weather next week. A European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model shows very low pressure over the UK on December 25. Forecasters remain cautious but admit the trends suggest a stormy festive holiday. Sky News weather producer Joanna Robinson said: "Christmas Day is still a long way off meteorologically speaking, but computer models are hinting that the unsettled theme will continue. "Some computer models show a deep area of low pressure moving in from the Atlantic on Christmas Day, bringing very wet and windy conditions. MeteoGroup's tweeted map shows low pressure and fairly mild temperatures. "There’s still time for that to change though, so it's worth keeping an eye on the forecast this week. "The unsettled conditions will mean that temperatures will remain around or above average, therefore snow is looking very unlikely at this point.†Forecasters MeteoGroup tweeted maps indicating low pressure and fairly mild temperatures for the time of year, while the ECMWF map was put out by MetDesk. MetDesk tweeted the ECMWF's model for December 25 Michael Dukes, MetDesk Director of Forecasting said: "It looks very much like it won’t be a white Christmas for most of us, with the possible exception of northern hills and mountains. "It's still a little too far off for much in the way of detail, but current indications are that the Christmas period will very unsettled and often wet/stormy with the risk of high winds as our weather continues to sweep in from the Atlantic. "Temperatures will be mostly above average for the time of year, but it may be cold enough at times for some wet snow over northern hills and mountains. "We are watching that risk of high winds with interest, but we won’t be sure if it’s actually going to happen or how bad it will be until five or six days out. Heavy rain in the days before Christmas last year caused severe flooding in some areas. http://news.sky.com/story/1183239/christmas-weather-britain-to-be-wet-and-windy

The met office ensemble mean maps have updated covering January, February and the first month of spring We have a signal for high pressure to sit in the Atlantic and drift over to the UK With the high we have below average rainfall 850hpa temps are average to slightly below 2m temps range from slightly below to slightly above average A quick look at the final month of winter and into spring and once again we have a signal for high pressure to stay put

Vietnam is joining in now Rare snowfall has brought disruption to Vietnam: http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/25405769

We're also still waiting for the 100 days of heavy snow to arrive as promised in the Daily Express

Another very unsettled update from ECM from the Christmas period

GEM still looking stormy for Christmas eve GFS at the same time

GEM has the low at 950mb on Thursday Into Friday and the weekend the low continues to affect the north though it does turn slightly calmer by Sunday

This is GFS to compare They look quite close to me, 10mb difference in the depth of the low but the position very similar

Christmas day still looking unsettled Snow possible in the north especially on high ground After a spell of unsettled weather (as shown above) pressure tries to build But another very deep low develops on New years eve north of Scotland once again looks around 940mb if this did come off all new year events in Scotland would be cancelled

meteociel always updates the quickest click Map Hemi. North to get a better view http://translate.google.co.uk/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&js=n&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&layout=2&eotf=1&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.meteociel.fr%2Fmodeles%2Fgfse_cartes.php&act=url

Netweather's Santa shaker gives us (northern England) a 15% chance http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=xmas;sess= Looking at the temps it looks marginal for snow at this stage low of 4c high of 5c the biggest risk of rain looks to be between 18:00 and 00:00 One thing the bookies will be nervous now after they lengthened the odds on a white Christmas to 10/1 in some parts

Today's NAO update maintains the positive them for the rest of December

Yes and with bills for some of us falling by £50 over the next few weeks we could be saving even more if this keep up

Another rise today up-to 6.9c now 2.0c above the 61 to 90 average

Early warnings for strong winds and heavy rain issued for Wednesday and Thursday Issued at: 1050 on Mon 16 Dec 2013 Valid from: 0900 on Wed 18 Dec 2013 Valid to: 2359 on Wed 18 Dec 2013 Rain will become persistent and heavy at times during Wednesday with the heaviest rainfall expected to be across Southwest Scotland, Tayside and Lochaber. In addition, southerly winds will increase to gale force with severe gales developing in coastal areas and higher ground inland. The public should be aware of difficult travel conditions with possible disruption. Chief Forecaster's assessment A developing depression in the Atlantic is expected to drive active fronts eastwards across Scotland on Wednesday. Over 40mm rainfall is likely quite widely across the yellow area, with 60-80mm possible across some upland areas. Issued at: 1055 on Mon 16 Dec 2013 Valid from: 2105 on Wed 18 Dec 2013 Valid to: 1200 on Thu 19 Dec 2013 Severe gale force winds are likely to affect parts of Northern Ireland, central and northern Scotland on Wednesday night and early on Thursday; gusts may exceed 80 mph locally. The wind will lead to large waves with some coastal over-topping possible. In addition, persistent heavy rain will quickly clear from Scotland leaving squally wintry showers. The public should be aware of the potential for disruption from this combination of weather events. This is an update to the Alert to bring the start time forward into Wednesday evening, by which point the strong winds may already be affecting Northern Ireland. Chief Forecaster's assessment A rapidly deepening area of low pressure will pass close to the NW of Scotland during Thursday morning. There is some uncertainty about the depth and track of this low, but the high gusts, in combination with heavy rain and some coastal flooding, have potential to bring disruption. In the wake of the main storm (beyond the period of this warning), a regime of wintry showers will bring an increased risk of hill snowfall and icy roads. Given the potential for a significant winter storm the public should continue to monitor the Met Office website for updates to this warning. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1387324800&regionName=uk

Yesterday's NAO update continues to show it remaining positive for the rest of this month

Severe gales Most rain in west Severe gales, Wednesday and Friday looking most severe http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=weekahead&DAY=20131216

The Christmas day low is still there on the 06z but not to the extreme of the 00z's 935mb low 00z

Best sun in southRain to northIssued: 0530hrs Monday 16th December 2013 Duty forecaster: Simon Keeling Sunny across southern Europe but the jet stream brings rain to the north Monday A fair day through Spain and Portugal with some good spells of sunshine here. Further sunshine across the Balearics and southern parts of Italy. Fog could trouble central and northern Italy, but this clearing to sunshine. Heavy showers across Greece but dry for Turkey. Good spells of sunshine in France,l but some cloud and rain affecting the far north. Further cloud and rain in the Low Countries and northern Germany. Central and southern Germany should be fine and dry with good spells of sunshine. More sunshine to come through southern Poland and across Austria, Switzerland and Hungary. A stormy day in Denmark with more cloud and rain here. Rain arriving in the Baltic States too, as well as through Finland. Windy and wet for Sweden, but becoming brighter in Norway although still mild here. Tuesday Showery bursts of rain affecting the west of Portugal through today. Most of Spain stays fine and dry with more sunshine. Foggy across northern parts of Italy but central and southern areas should be dry and sunny. Fair for Greece with sunshine, although feeling chilly, and fair for Turkey too. Much of central and southern France will be dry and sunny, with some sunshine across Switzerland and Austria. Cloud and some outbreaks of rain for northern France and the Low Countries as well as northern Germany. Central and southern Germany will be dry. Showery rain in Denmark and breezy here. Windy with a mix of sunshine and wintry showers in Norway. Cloud and rain through the Baltic States and southern Finland. Sweden will be dry with sunny spells. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?MENU=EuropeanSummary

If you think ECM is bad enough for Christmas day take a look at GFS A closer look shows a 935mb low just north of Scotland The GFS ensemble has a 940mb low On the other hand we have GEM which has backed away from a Christmas day storm this morning Instead it looks like boxing day could see some stormy weather Notice as well GEM has pressure building to our east

The ECM ensemble has the low at 965mb with the centre around Iceland The Op which has the most extreme solution

Its pretty much as you were from the ECM ensemble with deep lows the main feature

I think Its fair to GFS has had another bad day at the office with its 12z run ECM is not backing it one jot