Summer Sun

Its even worse for double figure temperatures here in Darlo December - 4 January - 7 February - 1 March - 1 April - 0 but that will improve Total days with double figure temperatures since December 1st 2012 - 13 Roll on a warm, sunny, wind free day

The last remaining cold weather alert has been removed 2 days early no cold weather alerts are in operation now that should be the final one until November 1st at the earliest now

Just wondering if the lack of rain has something to do with the wild fire in Fort William

Fort William Fire 'Under Control': Homes Safe A wild fire stretching three miles has consumed land close to homes in the Highlands. Around 45 firefighters battled the blaze north of Fort William throughout the night to bring it under control. First reported on Monday evening, the fire started on grassland and heath north of the B8004 road. Although wind was blowing smoke in the direction of residential properties, no buildings were on fire or had to be evacuated. Ross, Skye and Lochaber Liberal Democrat MP Charles Kennedy said he had "never witnessed anything" on the scale of the fire. "If the initial reports are confirmed, then it is miraculous that there was no significant loss of property, far less worse," he said. "The spate of such fires recently across the Highlands acts as a timely warning to us all. But most of all it makes us all profoundly grateful for the professional expertise and courage of our firefighters and the other emergency services. We are indebted to them all." Some firefighters are still monitoring the scene, the Scottish Fire and Rescue Service said. http://news.sky.com/story/1072642/fort-william-fire-under-control-homes-safe

T186 see's the low tracking across the north of Scotland This results in a spell of rain moving north to south t252 has the high edging up again Anyone heading to Spain or Portugal next week look like seeing some warm settled weather with the Azores high finally getting its act together

Exactly this is what I'm saying ECM is taking its own route currently GFS and UKMO both have a low of 955mb and 975mb respectively off the Eastern seaboard yet ECM has nothing to that extent

Rain March 21st Snow this morning

The stand off between the main 3 models continues this morning All at t120 2 x 00z and 1 x 06z GFS ECM UKMO GFS is the best as it brings continues to stay dry, settled and it will be warmer by day with double figures widely A pattern change is clearly on the way next week its just a case now of whether it will be dry, settled and warmer as per GFS or wetter and windy as per ECM GFS is standing firm currently sending that low north and keeping high pressure over the UK

Based on the Latest NAO its goodbye and good riddance to northern blocking next week

Windy in the Mediterranean Rain across Iberia Issued: 0530hrs Tuesday 2nd April 2012 Duty forecaster: John Ejdowski More settled across northern Europe Today Cold and sunny but a dry day across England, northern France, Belgium, Holland, Denmark and most of Germany. Rain showers will affect Portugal and parts of Spain with a dry day across the Balearics. Rain and showers are forecast across southern France. Very unsettled and windy across Italy, Austria, Croatia, The Czech Republic and Hungary with spells of rain. Pleasantly warm across Turkey with showers in the east and the wet sunny. A dry day across Bulgaria into Romania and the Ukraine. An area of snow is expected across Russia into the Baltic States and Belarus perhaps into eastern Poland. Dry, sunny and cold across Finland, Sweden and Norway. Very windy in the Mediterranean. Wednesday It remains dry and cold across Britain today. Much of France will also have a dry day as will Belgium, Holland and much of Germany. Heavy rain will fall across Portugal with showers across western Spain. A dry day for eastern Spain and across the Balearics into Corsica and Sardinia and northern Italy. Heavy showers are forecast for southern Italy and Greece with heavy rain across Croatia, Bosnia, Serbia into the Czech Republic, Hungry, Romania and Bulgaria. Rain will also move into western Turkey with the east fair and dry. Much of the Ukraine will have a dry day while snow is expected across southern Poland. Belarus and Russia. Lots of sunshine today across Finland, The Baltic States, Sweden, Denmark and Norway. Another very windy day across the central and eastern Mediterranean Region. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=204&FILE=eus&DAY=20130402

I wondered why the ground was slightly damp that will be why

Cold into Friday Milder by the weekend? Turning unsettled http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=weekahead&DAY=20130402

GFS holds firm again this morning with low pressure where it should be north and high pressure building from the south controlling our weather A lot milder as well ECM is still having non of it this morning but the GFS ensembles are showing a clear warm up next week again

ECM De Bilt see's the Op and control getting to the highest its been in a hell of a long time Full De Bilt up she goes!

t240 see's the low getting edged north slightly as the Azores high starts to take hold

Once again tonight we have a stand off from ECM and GFS at t168 ECM brings that low right across to the west of Ireland in just 24 hours Whilst GFS (left) with ensemble support sends it north T192 again sees the standoff continue Once again no clear picture is emerging for what set up we'll have what both do agree on is the uppers rise so the risk of snow goes and we'd be left with wet and windy conditions from ECM whilst GFS would be dry and settled out the 2 GFS is the one I like many would want to be right

Well over the past month or so we've had a few false hopes of a change to milder weather but now slowly but surely we finally seem to be taking steps forward to a different pattern emerging next week a return to milder air remains on course from the ensembles ECM has sort of backtracked to UKMO the deep low is in the Atlantic but its also got a low of 990mb running West of Scotland Where as UKMO and GFS have a ridge of High pressure close over the UK Not a full backtrack from ECM but its getting there

The GFS ensemble average continues to support a pattern change from next week with high pressure dominating to the south and low pressure to the north

We are now in British summer time so ECM doesn't start till 19:00 See this thread for the BST output times

Looking at the main 3 models this afternoon 2 x 12z and 1 x 00z ECM is on its own currently with its placement of the deep low GFS and UKMO agree on it staying well out in the Atlantic GFS UKMO ECM 00z I wouldn't be surprised if ECM backtracked tonight its 2 to 1 against it currently

The met office website still has the following http://www.metoffice...arch-statistics Think that will be getting changed later this week when they release the final stats

GFS looks superb at t240 miles apart from ECM Northern blocking redeveloping way out in FI

Yeah looks marginal

The low is trying to sink the high back south at t162 Looks like the high could win the battle pressure is a lot lower over Greenland at the start of next week Deepest cold stays east out the way ECM is still on its own with that deep low it has over or near the UK

GFS is holding firm so far t126 continues to see the high over Greenland getting squeezed out as the low gets forced north GFS (left) continues to go its own way at t144 when compared to ECM (right) this morning