Summer Sun

Yep a few light flakes in the air hopefully there should be a big improvement this weekend I and hoping to get my potatoes out and cover them with plastic to keep the worst of the overnight cold off

John Hammond from BBC weather has given an outlook for April also on there is a glimpse of the MOGREPS 2m temperature probability model which covers the period from March 29th to April 8th http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/21977085

Welcome aboard lol anyone is welcome to join Looks like tomorrow and Sunday could be better with lots of sunshine and light winds

A good outlook from GFS tonight with the northern blocking easing GFS is now also hinting at pressure becoming lower over Greenland Temperatures recover to normal or above normal for many Slowly but surely things are turning better during April and its going along with the met offices thought's earlier That's upto April 12th

UKMO is slowly loosing the coldest uppers by Monday GFS for the same time

Met Office defends forecasting http://uk.news.yahoo...12.html#oUHTccm Britain's colder than the Arctic: -10c freeze over Easter http://www.express.c...eze-over-Easter ARCTIC EASTER http://www.dailystar.../Arctic-Easter/ Forecasters predict respite from Spring Freeze on Easter Sunday as biting easterly winds fall away but temperatures won't get higher than 5C http://www.dailymail...l#ixzz2OwXr1nKj Bleat the cold Lambs get woolly jumpers to survive -10°C Easter http://www.thesun.co...l#ixzz2OwZHfB76

I hope all has gone well for you

The end appears to be in sight again with today's met office updates UK Outlook for Wednesday 3 Apr 2013 to Friday 12 Apr 2013: Towards the end of this period, there are signs that this prolonged cold period may start to wane, as winds become more westerly in nature. UK Outlook for Saturday 13 Apr 2013 to Saturday 27 Apr 2013: There remain signs of a transition from the current colder than average conditions to more typical conditions for the time of year taking place during mid-April. This would leave the rest of the month with nearer average temperatures, albeit still with a risk of overnight frost. Meanwhile, in the absence of any strong signals for trends in precipitation later this month, the most probable scenario is for rainfall to be nearer average. Given that the first half of April is expected to be drier than average, this does imply that at least some parts of the UK are likely to be more unsettled during the second half of April. Its going to be interesting to see if the models start to pick up on this trend during the next week ECM picked up on a trend to something less cold last night but dropped it this morning If ECM is to be right then it will be hats off to it by picking up this trend so far out

Sunshine in Darlo now you can certainly feel the warmth in the sunshine now

A rise from the ensembles now to the end of the run

Weather: Economy Hit By Spring Snowstorm Britain's fragile economy has been hit hard as a result of the spring snowstorm with some businesses reporting a slump in trade. Some high street retailers say the cold snap kept customers away during what should have been the run-up to a busy Easter weekend. Kingfisher, the owner of B&Q, reported a 13% drop in trade, while Next said it had seen a fall in sales during the bad weather. Experts say the costs to the economy of the unseasonable weather could run into billions of pounds and threaten to impact on economic growth figures. Some towns were cut off by the snow for up to a week making trading difficult on the high street. In the Derbyshire town of Bakewell, which was badly affected by the snow, businesses were hoping the cleared roads would encourage locals and tourists back into the town. Zoe McBurnie, owner of the Bakewell Tart and Coffee Shop, told Sky News that takings had dropped by £10,000 in just one week. "The recession hasn't been too bad to us but the snow has been completely devastating. "One minute you're busy and the next there's no-one coming in because the town is cut off by snow." Some of the biggest losses were on farms where hundreds of livestock, including sheep, lambs and cattle, were claimed by the snow drifts. On Nigel Birch's farm near Monyash in the Peak District, three calves lay dead on the yard, victims of the worse snowstorms there for 50 years. Hundreds of sheep had to be taken inside and fed on expensive corn feed whilst stocks of silage were running low. As lambing season enters full swing, newborns were left shivering in freezing conditions and had to be kept under heat lamps. "This has been a very difficult week - one I want to forget," Mr Birch said. "We've lost cattle, we're paying for new hay, feed and silage and in the end I think this spell will cost us between £5,000 and £10,000." Tourism was also badly affected as roads became impassable and families chose to cancel holidays. Nikki Dick, a B&B owner, said her diary was empty as guests were reluctant to book or could not get to her because of blocked roads. "If I look at last year's diary for the same time it is full. This year we have a few bookings, but after that there's nothing. "People have panicked and thought they're best to stay away. "But the snow has been cleared, and we're all here open for business," she said. http://news.sky.com/story/1071362/weather-economy-hit-by-spring-snowstorm

Met Office three-month forecast was 'not helpful' The Met Office has admitted issuing advice to government that was "not helpful" during last year's remarkable switch in weather patterns. Between March and April 2012, the UK experienced an extraordinary shift from high pressure and drought to low pressure and downpours. But the Met Office said the forecast for average rainfall "slightly" favoured drier than average conditions. The three-month forecast is said to be experimental. It is sent to contingency planners but has been withheld from the public since the Met Office was pilloried for its "barbecue summer" forecast in 2009. Last spring's forecast has been obtained by BBC News under Freedom of Information. The Met Office three-monthly outlook at the end of March stated: "The forecast for average UK rainfall slightly favours drier than average conditions for April-May-June, and slightly favours April being the driest of the three months." A soul-searching Met Office analysis later confessed: "Given that April was the wettest since detailed records began in 1910 and the April-May-June quarter was also the wettest, this advice was not helpful." In a note to the government chief scientist, the Met Office chief scientist Prof Julia Slingo explains the difficulty of constructing long-distance forecasts, given the UK's position at the far edge of dominant world weather systems. She says last year's calculations were not actually wrong because they were probabilistic. The Met Office forecast that the probability that April-May-June would fall into the driest of five categories was 20-25%, whilst the probability it would fall into the wettest was 10-15% (The average probability would be 20%). The Met Office explained it this way: "The probabilistic forecast can be considered as somewhat like a form guide for a horse race. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-21967190

Down to 3.0c to the 28th

It looks like there is some brighter sky making its way in from the coast now looking to my east here had a few flakes falling since just after 10am here but thats all

Latest ECM monthly outlook continues to show temperature staying below normal by mid month the average gets to around 10c around 4c below average

Unsettled across Iberia Windy through the Mediterranean Issued: 0530hrs Friday 29th of March 2012 Duty forecaster: John Ejdowski Snow across Eastern Europe Today A mainly dry but rather cold day to come across England with sunny spells. Outbreaks of rain are expected to affect Portugal and Spain along with western and southern parts of France. Dry across north eastern France into Belgium and Holland. Snow showers will affect Norway with an area of more persistent and heavy snow expected from southern Sweden, down through Denmark, into northern Germany, and most of Poland. Largely dry across southern Poland. Croatia and Hungary could see some snow mixed with with rain and rain is expected across Serbia into Bulgaria and northern parts of Greece. Southern Greece should be dry today. They'll be sunny spells across Turkey with a few scattered light showers. Southern parts of Portugal. Southern parts of Spain and southern parts of Italy should be dry today with a few heavy showers across northern Italy. Very cold but dry and sunny across Finland, western Russia that across the Baltic states and southward through Belarus, Ukraine and Romania. Saturday Continued dry across much of the United Kingdom, into northern France, Belgium and Holland today. An area of heavy rain is expected across central and southern parts of France with plenty of showers expected across northern Italy. Dry across southern Italy across into Greece and Turkey with sunny spells. An area of rain will stretch from the Alps, across Austria, into Croatia, Hungary and Serbia. Most of Romania, Bulgaria should get by with a dry but rather cloudy day. Continued unsettled across Iberia. Expect a number of showers across Portugal and Spain, interspersed with sunnier, drier spells but dry and mostly sunny day to come across the Balearics with heavy showers expected across Corsica and Sardinia. Cold and sunny across Norway with an area of moderate to heavy snow with an area of moderate to heavy snow. Stretching from Denmark across Sweden across the far north of Poland into the Baltic States and Russia. Most of Finland should be fair and dry. Snow showers to come across northern parts of Germany with southern Germany and southern parts of Poland mainly dry. Today the mildest weather will be across Turkey with temperatures into the low 20s and across southern Spain with temperatures reaching 20C. Very windy day to come across of the Mediterranean Region. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=204&FILE=eus&DAY=20130329

Cold and breezy Best sun in west Cold and windy with the best sunshine in the west http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=weekahead&DAY=20130329

Nothing over night from what I could see when I looked out the window just after 8am everywhere was clear not a bad morning here the wind is light again hopefully we'll see some sunshine again this afternoon like yesterday

The big positive again this morning is the next 2 weeks is looking very dry so other than the odd light snow showers here and there in the north and east we are slowly moving away from any significant snowfall now

Outlook for Saturday to Monday: Staying cold with moderate to severe overnight frost. Variable cloud with a few light wintry showers in places, and with rather more bright or sunny intervals. Mainly light winds. http://www.metoffice...Time=1364688000

ECM ensemble run for the final few charts Out to a week Sunday and eastern Europe remains in the freezer whilst the UK moves into the fridge not mild but not as cold as what has just gone Full ensemble

Light snow in Darlo as I type Its not bad tbh coldest uppers away in eastern Europe on this run

Not bad at all from ECM towards the end of its run pressure slowly becomes lower over Greenland and high pressure builds over the UK with the coldest air heading off into eastern Europe out the way Pressure is getting squeezed out over Greenland and the high build's over the UK Coldest uppers build in eastern europe And now the high has gone from Greenland with high pressure over the UK Milder air slowly pushing in from the west We'll be lucky on this occasion and avoid the coldest air as long everything goes to plan

The met office have updated the contingency planners forecast and covers April to June

April update Issued Summary Temperature: For April below-average UK-mean temperatures are more likely than above-average. For April-May-June as a whole above-average temperatures are weakly favoured. However, there is still a significant chance that this period will be colder than it was in the majority of the last 10 years Neutral conditions (neither El Niño nor La Niña) persist in the Tropical Pacific. Forecasts suggest a continuation of these conditions as the most likely scenario during the next three months. Arctic sea ice is around normal coverage for the time of year. However, any impact of this on spring-time conditions remains unclear. Although large-scale drivers are very weak, perhaps most significant on this occasion are the anomalously low sea surface temperatures over much of the North Sea, with below-average values also present around all other coasts of the British Isles. These colder than normal sea temperatures are likely to persist for at least a month. The Met Office models suggest a dominance of higher-than-average sea-level pressure over Scandinavia and lower-than-average pressure to the southwest of Britain during April. This would favour an increased chance of winds from an easterly quarter. Given the colder-than-normal North Sea, easterly air streams in April are likely to give below-average temperatures, especially in the east. In addition, the very wet ground could also lead to increased cloudiness, generally suppressing temperatures across the UK. Low sea temperatures could also lead to an increased chance of fog and low cloud affecting coastal regions, in particular near the North Sea. For April-May-June as a whole there is a slight preference for above-average temperatures, with the colder-than-average conditions in April being offset by some warm spells later in the season. http://www.metoffice...ts-temp-AMJ.pdf Summary Precipitation: For both April and April-May-June as a whole the uncertainty is large, leaving the forecast largely indistinguishable from climatology. The probability that UK precipitation will fall into the driest of our five categories is around 20% and the probability that it will fall into the wettest category is also around 20% (the probability for each of these categories is 20%) Climatologically, spring is the driest season of the year, as shown in Figure P1. In general, through spring rainfall becomes increasingly difficult to predict given that the likelihood of localised convective rainfall increasingly dominates the rainfall distribution. With the ground virtually saturated over some considerable depth following periods of very wet weather over the past year, increased evapo-transpiration could further increase the risk of heavy convective rainfall as the season progresses. As the ground is also saturated over much of continental Europe, any air streams from the south or southeast will likely bring an enhanced risk of heavy convective rainfall. For the latter part of the period model signals become weak, but favour transition to westerly or southwesterly winds, which would suggest periods of unsettled weather. However, the signals from models, for rainfall amounts through the spring, are very indeterminate and largely indistinguishable from climatology. http://www.metoffice...-precip-AMJ.pdf