Summer Sun

The met office have given Darlo a UV index of 3 for this afternoon and again on Easter Monday from 13:00 to 16:00 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/darlington#?tab=fiveDay&fcTime=1364770800

MINI ICE AGE TO HIT NEXT YEAR http://www.dailystar.co.uk/posts/view/306368/Mini-Ice-Age-to-hit-next-year

MINI ICE AGE TO HIT NEXT YEAR AS Britain shivers through the coldest Easter ever, experts say we could be heading for a new Ice Age. Their frosty prediction comes as the Met Office has warned that temperatures will remain up to 10C below average until about April 20 – not just the UK, but in the rest of the world as well. Experts have declared the start of 2013 the coldest for 208 years, and they reckon it could become a whole lot colder. Russian scientist Dr Habibullo Abdussamatov from the St Petersburg Pulkovo Astronomical Observatory claimed it is proof we are heading for a “mini Ice Ageâ€. He said: “We are now on an unavoidable advance towards a deep temperature drop.†According to Dr Abdussamatov, the Earth cools and warms in 200-year cycles. The last big freeze, known as the Little Ice Age, ended in 1805. And he claims the next freezing period for the Earth will begin next year. http://www.dailystar.co.uk/posts/view/306368/Mini-Ice-Age-to-hit-next-year

I believe he is still employed by the Met office but was taken off TV screens

A very productive day out side today just a slight chill in the wind but the sunshine offsets that today with the wind lighter than earlier in the week

UK Outlook for Sunday 14 Apr 2013 to Sunday 28 Apr 2013: There remain signs of a transition from the current colder than average conditions to more typical conditions for the time of year taking place during mid-April. This would leave the rest of the month with nearer average temperatures, albeit still with a risk of overnight frost. Meanwhile, in the absence of any strong signals for trends in precipitation later this month, the most probable scenario is for rainfall to be nearer average. Given that the first half of April is expected to be drier than average, this does imply that at least some parts of the UK are likely to be more unsettled during the second half of April. Updated: 1133 on Sat 30 Mar 2013 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

06z ensembles With a slight increase in precipitation from the 8th on all the ensembles that could be when the change to a westerly wind finally occurs getting shot of this cold EDIT just come across this A conversation on Twitter from Ian fergusson and Matt Hugo Ian Fergusson - Strengthened signs now of milder conditions with a marked pattern change circa 2nd week of April... Matt Hugo - EC clusters seem to concur. Signs for lower pressure to the N or NW towards mid-month, milder but likely more unsettled.

It will end we just don't know for sure when within the next 10 days is my bet

Apology for Met forecast blunder http://www.express.c...orecast-blunder

This is the 00z ensemble for London

Yep its gonna be a close call for a sub 3c CET 2 days to do it today's and tomorrows sunshine could scupper it

Cold & sunny north More unsettled south Issued: 0530hrs Saturday 30th March 2013 Duty forecaster: Simon Keeling Cold and sunny through northern Europe, but cloud and rain to the south Saturday Continued dry across much of the United Kingdom, into northern France, Belgium and Holland today. An area of heavy rain is expected across central and southern parts of France with plenty of showers expected across northern Italy. Dry across southern Italy across into Greece and Turkey with sunny spells. An area of rain will stretch from the Alps, across Austria, into Croatia, Hungary and Serbia. Most of Romania, Bulgaria should get by with a dry but rather cloudy day. Continued unsettled across Iberia. Expect a number of showers across Portugal and Spain, interspersed with sunnier, drier spells but dry and mostly sunny day to come across the Balearics with heavy showers expected across Corsica and Sardinia. Cold and sunny across Norway with an area of moderate to heavy snow with an area of moderate to heavy snow. Stretching from Denmark across Sweden across the far north of Poland into the Baltic States and Russia. Most of Finland should be fair and dry. Snow showers to come across northern parts of Germany with southern Germany and southern parts of Poland mainly dry. Today the mildest weather will be across Turkey with temperatures into the low 20s and across southern Spain with temperatures reaching 20C. Very windy day to come across of the Mediterranean Region. Easter Day Cloud and some outbreaks of rain affect western parts of Portugal and southern Spain on Sunday. It should be dry through eastern Spain with sunshine here. More sunshine to come across the Balearics. Unsettled in Italy with some heavy showers or longer spells of rain. A few showers for western Greece but dry in the east. Fair for Turkry with sunny spells. Cloud and some rain affecting the south of France, this falling as snow through Switzerland and Austria, as well as Hungary. For the Low Countries and most of Germany the day should be dry with good spells of sunshine. More sunshine to come in Poland, A fair day for Denmark with some good spells of sunshine here. Sunny and dry for the Baltic States and Finland. Dry too in the south and east of Sweden. Some cloud and wintry showers in northern and western Norway. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=204&FILE=eus&DAY=20130330

ECM is continuing to hint this morning that pressure will finally low over Greenland after what feels like an eternity and thus builds pressure over the UK The ensemble average shows the Op to be on the colder side It also agrees on pressure becoming lower over Greenland

Yep it didn't last long at all at 07:10 I couldn't see the car for snow at 09:17 its all gone just goes to show how quickly it melts at this time of year down at low levels Outlook for Monday to Wednesday: Staying cold with overnight frosts. Variable cloud, with perhaps a few isolated light wintry showers, and also some bright or sunny intervals. Mainly light winds.

Yeah trouble was it was too cold last week

The ECM De Bilt ensemble has the Operational and Control around or above the zero line for the bulk of its run

A look a GFS, ECM and BOM Access at t240 GFS has the cold hitting the east of the UK before getting pushed into eastern Europe The GFS ensemble average has the uppers at 0c to -4 The ensemble average for the latter part of its run is to lower heights over Greenland and build pressure over the UK BOM keeps the uppers at around -4 to -6 with the high staying over the UK ECM is the coldest of the 3 with the low sinking south pushing the Azores high back bringing a renewed cold blast Until the ECM ensemble run is out in an hour or so we don't know what support this will have

The low to the east continues to sink south with the Azores to the SW As it continues to sink into eastern Europe we get another cold blast

Slightly less cold uppers over the UK at t168 But that doesn't last long as t192 brings this

Something wintry for the south?

No I have a large Garden

ECM is setting up another easterly at t120 GFS full London ensemble

12z London ensemble to the 6th shows a slight rise in uppers upto next Saturday with virtually no rainfall at all which continues to be the big positive giving places chance to dry out after last years exceptional rainfall

They getting that desperate now there looking at the permutations lol Its fine for coldies to post snowmageddon type charts (and sometimes thats it no comment) in the winter but when those of us looking to get some overdue milder weather we get shot down! Anyway my search for something more seasonal will continue next up GFS ensembles then ECM

I think it was the MOGREPS model Alex Deakin used in his April predictions forecast on the BBC world channel on the 27th - http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/21961844 - 1:40 its viewable from