Mapantz
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Posts posted by Mapantz
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It's looking increasing likely that many will have experienced a completely snowless winter (excluding me, thankfully), whether it be no lying snow or indeed no falling snow.
Me included. But that's nothing unusual here. I didn't see any snow from 1995 to 2009, although i love snow, i don't really get that disappointed about it due to the lack of it in the first place.
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Very unsettled GFS 12Z run, UKMO 12Z at T+144 hrs is still cold with the HP cell over europe still affecting us while on the same timeframe on GFS 12Z its windier southwesterlies.
Looking very likely that the UK is in for another bout of cold zonal, possibly stormy conditions again. Fairly decent support for it.
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You'll end up with very iffy rain recordings! I found this out. Back in December when we had gales and heavy rain, i recorded about 3mm of rain when it was absolutely heaving down. Three stations within a radius of 5 miles of me, all recorded over 25mm. I took mine down and put it at a sensible height. If it's any higher than 6 feet above the ground, expect poor rain results when it's windy.
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Sounds to me like a confused version of this story from 2010:
That national article doesn't show all the facts. Even so, there's no confusion. This was not soley about Bournemouth, this happened for Brighton too, and probably many other coastal resorts. This isn't about articles in the media, I was physically listening to a MO forecaster saying these things to my face. I've already spoken to John Holmes on the matter, so this will be the last post regarding the subject as it could stir up an unwanted mess.
and only one has ever spoken out, in a cafe, to a stranger... Has everyone else who ever leaked this snippet been snatched at 4am never to be seen again?
My brother was there listening to it, and so was my sister in law. And it was even the topic of discussion in the local pub that evening. I'm fine with people not believing me for whatever reasons. But DO NOT mock me for posting a truthful piece of information.
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The MetO was forecasting last winter's cold spell many days' in advance...
I think you've misunderstood my post. I was referring to that silly video that Madden made. At 4m:20s he claims the Met Office was forecasting a mild Winter. I said i don't remember this, ie; Their 16 to 30 day outlooks were good and predicting the cold.
He said in the same line 'the coldest December in 100 years' Madden seems to think that Winter was just December. There's no bias in the ways you or John think. I was sticking up for the Met Office. I don't like Madden, period.
I thought my post was pretty clear? But i apologise if you and John thought different.
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sorry syed that post is completly wrong, how on earth can the government exert ANY influence on a weather forecast?
Do not go there! LOL
Although I'm not a conspiracist, i can mention something (without names)
I was working at my brothers Summer cafe one weekend, near to the beach .. somewhere in Dorset lol
A famous ex-weather forecaster for the MO turned up with his family, naturally being interested in weather, we had a good old chin wag. He told me that the Government do intervene with forecasts, it happened to him several times when he was working there. Both incidents were down to bank holiday forecasts for Bournemouth and Brighton. They were told to change the forecast to give the impression that bad weather would be due on these bank holiday dates, yet the complete opposite happened. He said the reasoning behind it was to stop thousands of people travelling to these destinations in cars and clogging up roads etc ..
There was even an article about the Bournemouth episode in our daily rag.
Now before i start getting attacked, or people telling me I'm absurd, that piece of information is 100% true. As i said, I'm no conspiracist, i'm just open minded. To be brutally honest, it didn't surprise me in the slightest.
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4m:20s - 'Let's take last Winter for example, when the £33 million supercomputer foresaw a mild Winter, yet we experienced the coldest December in 100 years with widespread snowfall as forecast by myself'
I don't remember 'the supercomputer' foreseeing that. But what i do have a quarrel with, is that he thinks December IS Winter. Poor old January, February and March didn't get a look in.
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I don't normally knock the MO, but i'm very disgusted that they have not put any kind of watch or warning out about these winds. Now you might say it's not warranted, but if you were here today then you'd agree. There's more trees down and power out today than from Tuesday's episode.
The christmas tree came down about an hour ago in the town centre ..
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Well .. that was quite an unreal early morning down here. Strongest winds i've witnessed in quite a few years. Damage all over the place, including my own garden. Two friends in hospital from falling trees. Rain has just poured through my front door and soaked carpets. Trees down, power has been out etc ..
I would just like to tip my hat to those folks who were posting on here last night saying 'Just an averge Winter storm' or 'It's downgraded, nothing more than a windy night'
I don't claim to be an expert, but i can read certain aspects of the models. But to start saying it wasn't going to be anything special a good 10 hours before winds peaked is outrageous. Especially when you knock the MO for their warnings.
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I just wanted to add, i think the MO have done a sterling job over the last 10 days or so. It seems they're damned if they do, and damed if they don't.
That aside, gales developing nicely off of the Southern tip of Ireland, more gusty winds to come along the channel, some exposed areas seeing perhaps 60mph along the coast. Enjoy!
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At last, someone else with some sense
60 pages worth or more of people getting annoyed, being negative etc etc and people are finally coming to terms that now casting might be best! lolThat's why the internet can be a negative thing when you're a weather lover! I was less disappointed when i was back in my teens, because i couldn't follow any information, as i didn't have the internet. Now that i have, i tend to see everything that misses me.
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It does seem a little disappointing i guess, but there's still time for slight changes. Either way, they'll be allsorts of elements getting thrown at us. Particularly this evening and tonight. Hail/thunder, tornado potential again too.
I'm on my 6th hail storm of the past 24hrs lol
Enjoy what we get anyway! It could end up pretty dull and boring over the xmas period.
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I posted the link five minutes ago ..
Despite what Laura Tobin showed all through her forecast, the end result was 'still some uncertainty' So i would say her forecast was done using model data from this morning, whereas the Chief Forecaster probably did that video with more up to date runs.
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that is not what the forecast just said on bbc
southern england braced for 70mph - 80mph gusts with snow to the northern edge of the low regardless of scenario 1 or 2
See for yourself ..
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The Met Office have released another video. They are confident now that will miss the Southern England, and the wind watches have been confined to Southern coastal counties. Breezy and wet down here i would say.
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there are no similarities here . the 87 storm formed in the bay of biscay and came north across the english channel . 959 mb is much lower than we are expecting .
No similarities? I firmly disagree with that. Pressure might be different, but there's a whole load of similarities!
Where both the 87 low, and the current progged low comes from, is an area that suffers from a lack of data. Not surprising the models are all over the place, they were back in 87, and look what happened.
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Rain isn't anything special here, despite the warnings. Barely drizzling. lol
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so whats up with the Meto? have they issued an amber warning or not?
I spoke to them not long ago, they've said there are no amber warnings in force at the moment, but they are monitoring the situation carefully.
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I am just a bit confused as to why the southeast are still under a warning for wind and we aren't.
Gusts of 50mph to 55mph can still cause damage particularly if they are frequent. Perhaps the situation is very difficult at the moment to make accurate predictions on what wind speeds can be expected.
Coastal stretches from Dorset to Kent are likely to see gusts of 70mph, perhaps higher. Their warnings fall quite nicely with the last GFS run.
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Is it me, or do the MO warnings keep changing? They removed the Western/South Western warnings for a time, and now they're back again. Perhaps it's a glitch?
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Met Office have changed their warnings agian.
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Turned out to be rubbish here. No gusty winds with that squall line for me, and just a few spots of rain.
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45 to 55 mph maybe?
Quite agree, i definitely wouldn't say light winds. Ok, not as pokey as Northern parts, but gales will develop in the channel.
60 pages worth or more of people getting annoyed, being negative etc etc and people are finally coming to terms that now casting might be best! lol
South West Of England Regional Discussion Thread
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
6mm of rain here, but always knew it would be.