Mapantz
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Posts posted by Mapantz
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Wednesday sees a shortwave trough eject east from the Atlantic across the UK - which could bring a more widespread risk of storms.
Indeed!
I highlighted this in the model discussion thread yesterday, but it got pushed to one side because lots of people were blinkered by the high pressure. Reluctant to post in that thread now.
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For warmth beyond midweek, its not looking particularly great now. I know GFS underestimates temperatures but if the GFS 00z is close to the mark then just 9-13c likely by Friday!! The High then retrogresses to Greenland and the door to colder weather from the North seems opened. However the saving grace is that the Operational was very much the colder/sometimes outlier of the 00z run.
The daytime temps showing on the the current GFS run are underdone imo. I'd have thought they'll be closer to the average. The trouble is, average doesn't seem so good after this weeks weather. A few weeks ago, something near average would have been a nice prospect. lol
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Always difficult to pinpoint showers in this current pattern but you do raise a fair point.
It does look like that some showers will spread towards the South West and South Wales over the weekend as a shallow low moves close by and these may extend Northwards early next week.
However there`s no major breakdown modelled and with thicknesses rising again towards midweek it is reasonable to look at the overall outlook as essentially settled.
Although i don't like going beyond T+100 on the GFS, i'll still point it out as it's a discussion.
I don't normally associate settled with a shortwave feature, but it makes it's presence known at T+120. Are we looking at the same run? lol
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GFS 12z keeps the high pressure with us for next week, likely to be the same as this week though with a few upgrades there is the chance of some warm air getting pulled up from spain, but the most likey scenario is more of the same
Some cloud and thunderstorms are likey in the south west for Saturday evening / night with the cloud hanging on during sunday pushing into Wales but else where in the east its more of the same with lots of warm sunshine
So in summary apart from a thundery breakdown in the south west tomorrow high pressure dominates for the foreseeable future
Do you just look for the word 'High' on the 500hPa charts and instantly think that we're in for more of the same?
Because my interpretation of the latest GFS run shows lowering thicknesses next week, with showers popping up in the south, and becoming more widespread by mid-week.
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hi im in Barnstaple North Devon so keeping a close watch on the weather fingers x we get something later. Temps are well up even with the stiff breeze. Only had one brief T-storm here in the last few years, think we have a no storm dome over us.
Kaz
The temps are high here too, in fact, after being progged cooler weather, it's turned out to be warmer than the last two days. Dew points have dropped now though, gone from 17.5C to 14.5C in the space of an hour, as the fresher air filtered in. All eyes on the south west come Sunday and in to the beginning of next week. :-)
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Strange post if you ask me!
What's so strange about it?
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You can never say never, we don't know what next week will bring yet, 30c could be more than possible in London if we could get the right set-up
We could get 45°C in London if we could get the right setup. lol
But I just don't see it happening next week. Warmth? You could say that slightly above average temps is warm compared to what we've seen prior to this weeks weather. But i just don't see the models pushing us beyond 30°C
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Met Office have a yellow warning out.
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I was referring to the ECM which pumps up upper air of between 12-15c whereas it's more nearer 8-10c this week. The other models wouldn't get 30c IMO but remain warm or very warm.
T-850's do indeed increase on the ECM by next weekend, but that time frame for me is beyond reliable even with anti-cyclonic conditions around. And like a few have mentioned, the models turned on a sixpence very quickly.
I do however think that the downpour risk increases nicely next week, maybe a few surprises regarding it. :-)
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we could be seeing temperatures nudging past 30c maybe next week???
Not a chance.
Cooler than this week, that's for sure.
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Crazy 18.8°C dewpoint here, all that potential going to waste lol
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Yet again today, showers/t-storms will be extremely localised. Although the chance is slightly greater than that of the past few days. My attention turns to the south west on Sunday possibly. Showers and maybe some t-storms breaking out there.
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It'll change by the 12Z. But i think there's enough support to show it a little more unsettled in the South later on next week, as a low retrogresses towards Ireland. More showers/rain about for many, but some hazy sunshine in between. Not a write off, but certainly not like this week.
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Thursday Cape updated
As long as the anti cyclone is as strong as it is, that CAPE will all be wasted.
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In my area.. lots of cumulus about but still sunny
Not far from 26°C myself. Dewpoint has just reached 18°C
Just took this image on my phone quickly ..
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Sure is humid today, 25c, dew points in the high teens.. maybe 26c will be reached? who knows..
26 reached in your area, or just in general?
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Fair weather Cu now building around Buxton and across the southern Pennines going from the sat24 latest frames. Required trigger temp is 25'c and we've reached that here with a stronger breeze now starting to come in from the west as the convergence initiates. http://www.buxtonwea.../buxtonview.jpg
Got exactly the same here, if you follow my link below and click webcam.
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Dewpoint of 16.3°C here right now. I like heat, but not this heat. It didn't drop below 21°C in my room, then the temp outside is at 17°C by 8:45am. Very uncomfortable.
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BBC graphics showing random showers tomorrow and Thursday. That's jinxed it then
They didn't show much at all for tomorrow or Thursday. In fact, it's that isolated, i'd rather stick to the warm and sunny conditions.
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I'd gladly take an islolated shower here, if i can get a bit of lightning with it. It's almost been 10 years since i had actually had a genuine thunderstorm here, most of the time they clip me.
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GFS evolving on subsequent runs and now the South Coast has a lightning symbol?????
This backs up the reply i got from the Met Office ..
UKMO Chief Forecaster:- re Weds shower signal: "GFS looks over the top...". ISOL heavy showers are poss in S areas.
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Yes, isolated but where convection can punch above the cap the results can be spectacular. We had one of those isolated storms in August 2007......it caused major flash flooding, vivid lightning and torrential hail. Best storm in years here. The hail was running in sheets down the road!
It would be good, but the GFS is overcooking it i think. Southern areas could see some showers though.
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It'll be interesting to see what comes of this. Good CAPE and LI and air temperatures well into the 20's! Lack of shear though so will most likely be isolated although I think a few could become pretty nasty!
Despite good dew points and CAPE etc .. i have to agree, showers will be isolated.
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Points West isn't broadcasted in this area. The heaviest rain was forecasted to be between 9pm and midnight. Again, that was wrong. I did some weighing up of the models around that time last night, to compare them to the radar. The GFS/UKMO/NAE were all wrong, A: The totals were way out, and so was the indication of the heaviest rains. The HIRLAM was the closest one. The warnings were in the wrong place too, not surprising the MO removed them at lunchtime.
I'm not the only one who thinks the forecasts for here were wrong, my Facebook is covered with complaints about what they saw on TV, and what actually happened. I'm not blaming the forecasters, as they used the models, exactly the same as me. But without a doubt, they over did the rainfall projections. I put this down to the high T-850's, plume style. I've seen precip models get over cooked before, but i've also seen the reverse, not much rain forecasted and then it belts down! lol
Funnily enough, they didn't mention last night about this afternoons rainfall here, more fell in a 2hr 30min period than it did all night, and by then the warnings had gone.
Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts - May 2012 Part 3
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
I don't know how far it will get to me before it starts diminishing, but sometimes in these situations, i can see the lightning out to sea from here.
Off down to the quay now for a few beers. Hope someone gets something in the SW.