[Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion]

Guys I have been telling you this will happen for last few days. Its already drizzle here (of the rain variety).

I could see the DAM and HPA being blown north the whole time. IM not an expert but I can read charts.

I predicted mid wales for snow but even thats only for a limited time. The adlantic is a lot stronger than people think it is. You also have to bare in mind this cold snap has out lived most cold snaps in the last 30 years.

There is still plenty of winter left yet a whole 8 weeks or so. Even March can bring heavy snowfall.

There is still plenty of actvity in the arctic and things can and probably will take a turn in Feb.

[Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion]

Well a dusting on top of what weve got is still extremely poor in my books.

that 17CM thawed quick then

Its already starting to turn to rain over the east midlands

[Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion]

Can anyone advise as to what has been the main significant change for the forecastsers to now change their minds on this ???

As GFS suggested earlier, the adlantic is going to push in through next week swinging the winds from south (usuall ish direction) pushing the cold air further north across the country. This will significantly increase the upper temps and will stop the easterly we have depended on to keep the cold. This will also increase the ground temp causeing a thaw.

I think the high points will see snow/wet snow for a time, before the air is pushed back. I think that low out to the adlantic was not over estimated like many suggested looking at GFS earlier in the week.

This can still change tho, maybe something magical will happen and GFS will do a sudden U_Turn and that is very possible.

[Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion]

Yep there is hardly any wind, or snow, its a bit to warm aswell!! Quite boring atm!! Not looking too good :S

GFS strikes again. I think for many of us tommorow and tuesday its going to rain like I have been saying since friday.

According to GFS the cold is not going to return to south wales at all, looking at it saturday is up to 7oC here which is a big change from yesterday.

[Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion]

Where did you get that from??? forcaster earlier on bbc wales on the radio just now has said that costal areas of south wales including newport, cardiff and swansea will only see a sleet/rain mix tomorrow and moday followed by heavy rain Tuesday, Would welcome comments on this as was expecting at least a dusting here in Bridgend

confused or what???

Thats what I have been saying all along but I got slated for it lol

[Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion]

Well I've never been a fan of automated forecast so we can agree to disagree yet again . Fel cath a chi.

But they just give a basic picture i suppose, and yes it would be nice well this is currenlty the deepest snow in Cwmamman sicne 1986 from what i've heard off the locals and it's sticking around long like 1982, Drifting is starting to become a problem here, you can see places that look like theyve had a fresh layer of snow when really its the snow drifting. Tomorrow we shall see what happens, because we all know dry and powdery snow amounts up to more than wetish snow and doesnt compact very much which could mean depths greater than first progged.

I think im going to take a trip up there on sunday for a butchers.

[Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion]

All automated forecast are nonsense and poop as you say, In all fairness that was quite harsh and uncalled for, Becaus mrmonopoly does know what he's talking about, But these forecast are useless, they don't do science they do deafualt which as we all know deosnt work, its like saying you paint a bench green it will dry within an hour, but it wont if its cold or if its raining will it? in other words local conditions aren't taken into account with these forecast neither is alltitude.

They are pretty good under normal conditions, but this isnt a normal condition. i think its because there based on old GFS data which currently keeps chaning its mind like the wind "Pardon the pun".

I Really hope Tuesday turns into a snow fest wouldnt that be ser real. I not seen mega snow yet not since 1983 from what I can remember. It be nice to see one of these events to tell my kids about if it ever happens again.

I really see winters getting worse now as years go on, to try and compensate for global warming. Someone mentiones a day after tommorow event and thats honestly how I see the globe reacting to our lifestyles.

When you rhink about it these snow storms cost us a fortune in money, keeping house warm, council tax cleaning up the mess, not to mention on health. So its a bit of give and take

[Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion]

Your pretty much right with the light persistant snow for sunday and monday, Tuesday *could* be a different story.

i find those forecasts very inaccurate

I do to, but its what I am basing some of what I am saying on. people keep saying im talking poop as it where, its because I am using data from another source and im not so fast to jump on the cold will last till next decade run.

I totally belive what Jackone said.

[Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion]

BBC says Ammanford and Port Talbot is heavy Snow - Mrmonopoly talking poop again

Try looking here.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=uk7dayx7;page=4;type=free;ct=~SA12;sess=#forecast

So no I am not talking "Poop" again thank you

this one for Amman Valley

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=uk7dayx7;page=4;type=free;ct=~SA18;sess=#forecast

so it appears BBC is either correct and this site is wrong , or BBC are wrong and this one is right. Dont take what BBC says is gospel, if it said it be 53oC tommorow with a chance of a hurricane would you belive it.

[Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion]

I went upto the A470 today to Tredegar to see the snow, very much a contrast from the hill past Glynneath into a Winter Wonderland.

Where is that forecast from?

This website, go to forecasts and enter post code for the week ahead (SA18) and (sa12). 20% chance of snow apparently at 12:00 which is when it says heaviest rain is forecast

[Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion]

Forecast for Ammanford and port talbot is still heavy rain on the local forecast on here for tuesday. When do those usually get updated.

[Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion]

The chance of a fast breakdown is dropping rapidly going by tonight's models, I don't expect the mild air to reach as forth north as it says, indeed the precipitation may not be that far north.

My guess at the moment is 80/20 to cold staying in place, with an undercut looking increasingly likely.

This is Ian Fergusson latest NAE chart, showing the snow for tomorrow, as you can see widespread but mostly light.

Ahh yes, maybe the charts not updated on datacentre yet. So basically the warm front is pushed over the top of the could air creating snow sorta like mid way through atmosphere. Does that not the sort of setup that causes thunderstorms.

[Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion]

Things are going to turn nasty around these parts by the looks of things, My mother works for a dementia clinic and has been informed that she might ave to go into work at 9 tonight untill tuesday lukily work is around the corner but other staff won't make it they're having difficulty as it is and we haven't had significant snowfall since last tuesday night. She told me that they had been informed by carmarthenshire council that they would only be gritting trunk roads into the major towns now, Ie, Llanelli, Carmarthen, Ammanford, Burry Port and The road towards lampeter from Carmarthen. They are however putting gravell on the roads to dry and make more grip which is a good thing. But this has told me that there is definetly bad weather on the way.

That wouldnt happen to be the one opposite Garnant Club would it lol

Anyways GFS still shows milder air pushing into SW and S Wales on coasts on tuesday its 50/50 which wins id say.

[Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion]

Well going from the current output you've got a point but it will undoubtly change before then so whether we agree or not will be irrelevant by this time tomorrow . I suggest you take a holiday up to the valley untill wednesday .

Im giving that some serious thought

[Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion]

17cm is certainly not over doing it, I can ave posters on this forum from Brynaman backing me up here. Yes its not 17cm now its compacted and froze but when it had freshly fallen it was. And I will take your opinion into account yes that's what this forum is for discussion, And i have been reading the model thread and there are people agreeing with some of what you say to an extent but you are the only one going for the block to be broken straigt away that certainly is very unlikely to happen. I don't mean to fall out this forum is for discussion not bickering, And only nowcasting and time will tell what really will happen. And Gfs has preformed poorly during this cold spell you can defent it all you like and it's not on the basis of what I or anybody else wants to here its on the basis of how it's preformed in the last 3 weeks, take any chart from 24hr - 36hr and compare it with the actual outcome or any run from before that and you will find that Gfs has been very poor as of late. Yes Gfs is a top model and has preformed well in the past but it's credibility has greatly reduced in the past few weeks, And that's not based on what I or anybody else wishes to see it's bases on fact and what has actually materialised. Obviously no model is 100% accurate its the weather the only time we know what the weather is doing for certain is by using our eyes and looking out the window, but they give us an idea and yours is just one idea, there are many others and nothing is set in stone, which by your post was propper armageddon style.

I didnt mean it to come across like that. I dont realise sometimes. Its going to be a very very fine rain/snow boundry how long it stays snow for is yet to be seen. But can we agree on one thing next week it will turn to rain at some point during tuesday. im not saying temps will go from 0oC to 7oC in a blink of a eye. It will happen as the low pushes in. Gradually!. 7oC I admit is really stupid, I think it be around 3 or 4oC but the upper HPA temps are also close to or above freezing so its just not cold enough to keep the precep snow on lower levels. Your high up so you got a good chance of keeping it for a little while longer than us down here.

[Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion]

I wasn't directing that comment at any one person sir, just a general comment that people can struggle with the cheerful side to their nature

I know mate at times I wish id stayed in Amman Valley little bit of green eyed monster for me. im slightly envious of people with mega snow. There is a lot of it due for next 48 hours for us tho hopefully it will move further south . But next week is the focus of my posts.

[Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion]

Noticed this too....it is ridiculous how they can be so different.....BBC as basically saying we will have nothing....SKY are saying we will have quite a bit...

i think thats because there both using differant models and each one places the percep in differant places.

[Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion]

I try and be cheerful - too many miserable buggers around as it is

Not being misserale, im trying to sit on the fence, but because I have a differant ideal to the snow lovers im getting bashed for my prediction and its starting to annoy me. This is a forum thats open to discussion. He keeps slapping me down but where is his prediction and what does he base his on? Most people agree with me in the detailed discussion thread the next few days from tuesday onwards are dicy at best and its a very fine line between snow/rain/freezing rain boundry.

me being pretty much as south as you can get in wales Bar swansea etc here the chances of rain are far higher than anyone in the valleys and beyond.

[Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion]

Ahh i see, Your one of these people that the GFS become a gospel too, As you well know the gfs overestimates temps all the time. Did Gfs proge tempreatures below -5 the other night? Nope. Gfs has been chopping and changing with nearly every run and i take it that your basing this forecast on every run. THere is no way tempreatures will reach 7 degrees on wednesday, The metoffice for one wouldnt have a warning out for snow if it was that clear. Also this set up can't be compared to Pre christmas at all. It has been very cold the cold over us is going to take some budging because it's well established wheras before Christmas this was not the case. Also you may have had 1cm of snow but up in Glanaman/Garnnant we had 22cm on the grass no less than 17cm on the roads, Barely anything has thawed, I advise you to take a trip up the valley and tell me tempreatures will reach 7 degrees by Wednesday, You can't judge a forecast for the whole of South Wales based on what you've recieved. You did have a pesimistic attitude last week which was only proven wrong for the vast majority of us.

Thats actually pretty funny because all my family live there, and they clearly stated 17cm is now over doing it slightly. I said the block wouldnt be removed completly I said it retreats northwards. Have you seen the jetstream charts for wednesday with a huge plume of warm air being drawn up from the south. I dont take GFS as gospel at all. I take it into consideration but I am defending the bashing GFS has had lately because it does not favour everyones expectations. You probably be ok for a snow event this weekend thats not what I am questioning here. I am looking at Tuesday and beyond. The adlantic as we speak is attaking this block. I DONT want it to go anywhere and I would love to be wrong. I am just putting a slant on it. I can see you to have been reading the model thread and you should know I am not the only person who is saying this.

I am giving people my opinion, and if my opinion does not favour the I am having snow and everything else goes out the window then tuff.

[Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion]

Forcast on bbc radio wales jus said it looks like most south wales costal areas including cardiff newport swansea will missout as the precipitation is forcast to head north west. Hope this is not true as I was expecting at least a dusting here in Bridgend, but it does tie in with what is being shown on N24 with morth and mid wales getting all the snow any thoughts guys

Thats exactly what I said previously

[Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion]

With one thing in mind and all due respect your a bit of a mild ramper, last week you were saying how it was all going to end soon and how snow would be confined to such and such which proved wrong, Being from swansea maybe your local climate gives you a biased tint too things hence the dismal attitude, Can i ask you what do you base this on? because most models are in agreement that the worse case scenario would be sleet on the coast and the most likely scenario is a sustained period of snowfall and slightly less cold conditions, But less cold doesnt mean mild considering the tempreatures we've had, Less cold may mean that tempreatures climb a degree or so above freezing instead of sitting aroun -2 , hasn't got above freezing here since sunday.

I also return with all due respect.

I am not a mild lover, in fact I am the complete opposite I hate it when its 6oC and its chucking it down I just stay indoors I become agrophobic because its horrible. Like last few days ive loved going for a walk. But yes I think your right. Remember I lived in Garnant for 20 years I was born there and I grew up there.

I am basing this on the discussions in the model chat, reading as much information as possible, and looking at things outside of the box. Yes temps wont be back to normal thats not what I am saying. What I am saying is temps will be to warm for it to snow beyond monday/tuesday. The conditions are just not there. The block retreats back into north areas of wales, and over the beacons (because of the height) and into the midlnds. We are now on the other side of the block and its returning back to conditions before xmas. And I was not wrong in my observations last event, because here we had 1cm of snow the whole time. Of which the large majority of it has now gone. It didnt snow like mad like it did for some people. And I think you will find I noticed that particular low moving west towards us before many others did. I am not forecast expert but what I do have experiance in his many many winters before me. I also have experiance in looking at the charts for storm season when I go chasing around the UK for that perfect lightning photograph. Thats why I moved to the coast of wales so I could see the storms in the channel and the picture of a lifetime I so badly want.

0oC temps dont mean snow there are a lot of other factors to take into account. I think you will also find the GFS clearly states 7oC for temp in south wales on wednesday which is a long way off 0oC your stating.

People are very quick to go with the model that sugested the colder air and the more precep. GFS has been pretty reliable over the years, and I am not so quick to dismiss it. I am going for something in the middle and maybe 7oC is a bit on the harsh side, but it will rise to at least 3-4oC which makes snow almost impossible considering the HPS temps above.

[Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion]

I think the snow fall for sunday is going to be light in nature but a long period of it. Most of the action again tends to be over mid wales like the last load. Further north you are the more snow your going to get.

As for monday/tuesday I am of the opinion looking at everything this break down will be quicker than said. For those of us on the south side will see sleet at best. It will snow for a time over the beacons and heads of the valley before that to turns to sleet by which time it be rain further down.

The rain will then turn heavy and all the focus will then go to flooding rather than snow, the rain will sit on the ice for a short time before it errodes it away. People keep talking about low surface temps but its science, if it rains on top the surface temp will rise quickly as the percep will be warmer.

I personally dont want to see any sort of breakdown I love the fresh air the cold brings and also the dry it brings. You can go for a walk and feel alive. Normally I just want to sit indoors and think sod that its horrid outside with cold damp crap.

I suggest everyone enjoys the last few days, go out and buy all the milk and bread you can because you get the sudden urge to (he he) local Co-OP 1 loaf per person only and 2 pints of milk.

On a side note, what makes me laugh is what nutritional value do you get just eating bead and milk! why not stock up on burgers and spuds.

[General Model Output Discussion]

Yes but remember we all watch TV and take what we want from it, human nature and I kinda think the media create the panic and brainwash us.

Life is one big movie in a way and movies are supposed to be about life so maybe Al Gore is right and the Day after Tomorrow will happen one day. Also, theres 2 much emphasis on today and now, it's whats down the line is interesting and possibly bad news. Nature i.e the animals/birds/plants have had it bad for sure, these will be the headline makers soon.

Yes winter has been real good from my personal view too but there are many weeks to go yet, this weekend is certainly another hurdle for us folk.

I've already joined you for the record

Cheers

STORMBOY

The forecast here on tuesday is a high of 2oC then suddenly on wednesday it jumps to 7oC and rain that sounds like a pretty fast break down to me and it seems to stay that was for the rest of the run. I took this data using the long range forecast on here. Does that not mean the adlantic wins on the first attempt.

I love this sort of weather not much snow here but the air is so crisp and fresh it be a shame to return to damp horrid mildish ness.

So if I am looking at things correctly a lot depends on a high preassure remain in place over scandanavia pushing our jet stream over europe this allowing the wind to come from a much colder area. The breakdown to me still seems way to quick and easy.

My location is south wales by the way.

And storm boy your right plenty of time, but the general view is, feb will be a normal winter month for us with adlantic usual to hot for snow, and to cold for it to be nice. What we have all come to expect from winter. Then I look forward to may with the storm season starting I wonder what effects this winter will have on our spring

[General Model Output Discussion]

As a Welshman now living a long way from home, most of the focus being on the east at the moment because it ( the weather ) is coming from the East, which is relatively unusual.

The breakdown, when it comes WILL come from the south or South west, but the way things are, you are best going here and looking at the ensembles, after all Swansea is the second in the list (Abertawe), that will give you some idea on what is expected to happen in your neck of the woods.

That looks intresting, it increases to just below zero you can see the semi break down then over the next 3 days it drops right back down again before a steady increase towards feb. IS that the classic reload scenario

[General Model Output Discussion]

http://forum.netweather.tv/forum/69-learners-area/

I understand those ones ok. What I am trying to say is thats confused me. Why is the breakdown occuring on the east side of the country or why does that seem to be the focus of the discussions.