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mrmonopoly

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Posts posted by mrmonopoly

    Model output discussion - here comes the beast!

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Just now, CloudyBay said:

    I find it very interesting that the TV weather forecasts still seem to be gently suggesting that it will be "turning a bit chillier" with "the risk of some wintry showers" and so on.

    Based on the model outputs we are seeing, and the dwindling chance that the weather won't be highly disruptive next week, I'm puzzled as to why this is the case.  

    Could anyone shed some light on the decision making processes used to interpret these models into mainstream forecasts?  At what sort of threshold of probability would much starker weather warnings be issued in circumstances such as these?  

    I would be making the assumption when the charts show it at T24 ot T48 , when its pretty much a dead cert. Last thing you want is panic and the emptying of supermarkets

    Wales (cymru) - Regional Weather Discussion (part 3)

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    I would assume its because in Kent they have an easterly, and when front is over us we have a southerly/westerly warmer air from the sea. Besides 50 miles can make a massive differance all depends on what air mass u sit under. Personally where I am a snowfest is unlikely, a wet ice fest for a time perhaps.

    I'm not getting the temperature variations which both the met and bbc are claiming. how can it be 6 degrees in cardiff and minus 1 in kent (seriously, thats only a 250 mile difference ) on the same night ??

    Convective / Storm Chat And Discussion

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    Out of curiosoty tho, the last 6 months weather has been rather odd to say the least the strong winter, and now an early start to the storm season and today was simply staggering how quickly those cells popped up.

    The ones over me intensified in less than 10 mins in the bristol channel. Dont get my wrong I am far from making a complaint but is there a reason for all this strange weather.

    A good freind of mine has been telling me in texas they have not had rain since december, and thats really not the norm. Things seem a bit topsy turvey.

    Convective / Storm Chat And Discussion

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted · Edited by mrmonopoly

    In case you didnt see my other post, here are my 3 parts to cell east of swansea this afternoon. Here is part 1 and 2

    What an awsome day and totally our of the blue for me, I just wish it was night time so I could have done some of my photography. Here is an example of some shots I have done on swansea sea front.

    Monumental Storm Swansea

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted · Edited by mrmonopoly

    We have had a mental storm here for 2 hours or more. I have 3 videos to show just how bad it got and the size of the hail that came down.

    I will post them shortly once I made them smaller if anyone has any suggestiong because you have really got to see this.

    Ohh and I swear a bit as thats how bad it got.

    Yea need some help attaching videos, there 34mb each and there is 3 but I can only upload 5mb at a time id love to share this with you.

    Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Let's be honest we are all cold lovers and therefore biased and could be called cold rampers so we have no right to say cold /mild rampers etc, were just all interested in the forecast, Mr Monopoly was wrong for today but eve i said this morning that this would be rain in alot of places it just proves how hard our weather is to predict.

    I see you right on that one, this took me by supprise as it did a lot of people. It staying as snow this long as been a shock. The mild air was pushed away a bit further out than I anticipated so a delay in the milder weather making a return. Could have gone either way so happens the low undercut and pushed milder air above the colder air which is probably what triggered a few thunder claps.

    Im not a mild camper as I hate mild winters because there damp and cold. I prefer clear and cold. (with odd snow interlute :closedeyes:

    it be intresting to see what happens to milder air tommorow towards midday and beyond.

    Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Isit actually snowing in Port Milpot then Mr MoNOPOLY?

    Well it is , but its more of a fine drizzle really been like that for a few hours now. We had heavy stuff before I got dark tho. Very slushy around here at the moment.

    All roads are ok tho as they where gritted well in advance. Council here has been pretty good where that is concerned always been able to get around.

    And yes it looks the cold isnt going down without a fight either. Its been delayed for a day or so.

    End of the month looks good, but they say feb is going to be on the mildish side

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