shedhead

With Alaska now firmly back into the freezer the anomolous warmth has transfered into the normally frigid E Siberia. Temps in Magadan Russia should get above freezing by day, something akin to seeing -20c on the Isles of Scilly, with Oymyakon possibly seeing highs 40c above normal this weekend....or the equivilent of 46c (115f) in London. Truely staggering stuff.

I'd like to say/know, but my raingauge is still under 9" of water! So will need to wait for Yeoviltons numbers to get a decent idea.

Nome AK hit 51f yesterday, smashing the old record of 46f. Ave Jan max is 11f, so 40f above normal which equates to a 84f (29c) max in London. Now we all know it's been mild, but the day we see a 29c max in Jan will be the time to really panic, well for the few thousand left living on top the Cairngorms it will be...

Looking at the current NWP, my winter forecast that I declared dead early last week then reincarnated on Friday, now looks dead again! Very happy with how the first half panned out, but my late Jan slide into a cold, wintry Feb now looks bust unless there is some sort or dramatic turn round or a VVSSW...

One thing is absolutely certain, if this flooding was in and around Chipping Norton it would have been sorted weeks and weeks ago....in fact it would never have been allowed to get to this state in the first place.

Block still not strong enough and still slightly to far east to stop the Atlantic getting through though, but it's down down to edging rather than pushing. So some snow for many, but turning to sleet and eventually rain from the west IF the 06 GFS is to be believed.

That how I see things this morning Chiono..sorry about that. If you looks back across the past 24-48hrs of posts from me I was seeing it rather differently, so if 'balance' is what you truely seek, look back and understand the balance is there.

In the short term Phil we may well get some clues from the fronts expected to cross Germany in the next 24-36hrs. On the face of it their progress eastwards seems fairly easy, despite temps of -10 to -15c now being in place, so whilst not exactly in our neck of the woods we may well learn some interesting lessons regarding the models/block durability.

No, they were the T+192hrs from GFS and ECM, which despite the overall confusion in the short/medium term looked very much alike. So as Gibby summerised there is something of a split in the longer term evolutions between GFS/ECM on one side and GEM/NAVGEM on the other, with UKMO probably floating somewhere in the middle. Again as I said there is nothing to suggest the former will be correct, but they have shown a fairly consistent trend towards the Scandi block slipping SE, so for now if I had to put money on it I'd back them over GEM/NAVGEM. However, and this is the main point (reiterated several times yesterday) this DOES NOT MEAN MILD WEATHER, so any talk of the Atlantic coming back in should not automatically be viewed in this way.

Perhaps if you read my post properly you will understand the point I made... This has been the consistent evolution for several days now; whether it actually happens or not remains to be seen, but that is what the charts suggest and charts are what we're supposed to be discussing. Re UKMO, that is a 144hr chart, but for the record it also shows the Scandi block moving towards becoming a Kazak block, though it is a little better placed to hold up the Atlantic... GEM is a model that is only really taken seriously when it shows to coldest evolution...as per now.

UKMO does not go out that far, as for the GEM, if you have a point to make please post some charts to support your views. Tks.

It's pretty rare for a definative forecast to be given 4-5 days hence in any set up, but the overriding signal this morning is for the Atlantic to start pushing through again later this week, as the Scandi block becomes the Kazak block. This has been the consistent evolution for several days now; whether it actually happens or not remains to be seen, but that is what the charts suggest and charts are what we're supposed to be discussing.

Once again, Atlantic barrelling in, rolling in...call it what you like does NOT mean it will be mild and it does NOT mean there will be no wintry weather. No one is suggesting anything other than hopes of the kind of long, strong E'erly that UKMO were previously modelling have faded someone given it lastest update, this does not mean a 3000 mile Bermuda Blowtorch will be singeing peoples eyebrows off next week. Things need to be kept in context here, otherwise pointless bickering will ensue yet again.

I think we should try not to confuse what you suggest above Paul with what has actually been said by others...same point to Bristle Boy too. No one is suggesting that any given model can be declared correct with it's synoptic prediction 7 days away, but what can catagorically be said is UKMO has dropped it's strong E'erly for later next week on the 12 run and in so doing has joined in with the main consesus on a return to an Atlantic flow. Now clearly things might well change again across subsequent runs, but for now that is how things actually stand.

Probably because, as many of us suspected/feared, the UKMO's longer term evolution has been wrong with regards to it strong Easterly for the middle of next week. Really nothing to be gained by suggesting otherwise imo, the overall consensus has always been for the Atlantic to come bowling on back in after the briefest of continental feeds, so until that changes we probably have to accept it remains the most likely option....like it or not.

Unfortunately it does look plausible and represents a real horror show, especially for this part of the world. Not giving up on the cold spell quite yet, but to be honest I'd trade anything now for some dry weather; the idea of more heavy rain bands frequently smashing in off the Atlantic does not bear thinking about right now...

Nothing much more to be said about GFS/ECM, but if I had to sum their overnight offerings up in one word it would be 'disppointing' At the other end of the spectrum however we have UKMO, which if anything is an upgrade for cold later next week despite already being the best on offer for the last 36-48hrs. Ordinarily I'd be relatively confident of UKMO at least verifying close to what'd being shown, but as well as the fact the other big 2 are not onboard my main concern is the MO do not seem to be fully buying into what their own model is showing. More runs needed as per, but events overnight suggest this is still far from the done deal touted by some yesterday.... it is however going to turn colder, that we can take as read.

All well and good Chiono, but rather superfluous due to the fact I can't think of one single post across the last week that has suggested the weather is turning mild. The main misconception that actually needs addressing (but is all to conveniently ignored in here) is when someone suggest it might not be as cold as others say, they are not be defination saying it will be mild... you are as aware as the rest of us that other options exist in between. All to often we see members saying things along the lines of ' I don't see a bitter Easterly developing due to bla, bla bla', but for some strange reason the words written appear to be read as 'I see a mild SW'erly developing due to bla, bla, bla.

2c in Nome and -12c in Atlanta...talk about topsy turvy!!

10p in the 'p' box for you ST...

I suspect they have probably been a 'little less cautious' with organisations that pay for their forecast data. Those on the need to know lists will have least been advised, if not warned, but that still doen't make this any more of a done deal yet imo.

This is the problem and until the MO come on board with this caution will remain the watchword imo. I'm sure someone will come up with an example, but I'm strugging to remember a time when they we badly wrong with their 6-15 day forecasts across any season. I guess it's more than a tad ironic that whilst this is very much the case, the short term forecast they issued for today after last nights 10pm BBC News was badly innaccurate in timing, extent and intensity of rainfall....you couldn't make it up really!

I see it as far more +ive than -ive Foz as my earlier post suggesed, but the whole set up going forward is still very much knife edge, if not razor edge. Too much emphasis given to one side could result in us having something 'cut off' that we'd rather hold onto...and I'm not talking about a Biscay LP. Next 48hrs of charts now look critical, the improving trend needs to continue and even gather pace if possible.

One or two would be wise to take on board EML's latest post, nothing is guaranteed at this stage, all we can currently say with 100% certainty is the upcoming period repesents the best chance so far this winter of actually seeing some winter...or at least winter as the vast majority in here like to think of it. The post from Frosty earlier was I'm sure tongue in cheek, but they can and often do raise the expectation bar to levels way above where they should really be, especially given everything currently available to us.

Unfortunately been there, seen it, done it and still got the scars to prove it Glenn, so no way am I gonna morph from cold Grinch into Frosty par deux overnight... Things certainly look more promising, especially when compared with what we have had to endure to date, but until we can be assured the LP will dive SE early next week and finally open the door to some proper cold air I will remain.....let's just say 'relatively hopeful..certainly no more at this stage.