shedhead

Just trying to show what's possible PM, but at this stage not nescessarily probable imo. Looking at this charts for the 17th though with it's deep Baffin PV and strong Euro High, it is encouraging to see just how quickly and dramatically things can change once heights start to build to our NE. That is now precisely what we need to see happening.

Time for a big straw to clutch...GFS for 17th Jan 2013 17 Jan 1947... Not a million miles different, then from the above to this in a week...

Very much agree WE, clearly changes in the overall hemispheric pattern are afoot and no doubt much of Europe will eventually turn colder...but to be fair it could hardly turn any milder! Exactly how the wider changes will impact our small island as we move into the 2nd half of Jan remains to be seen, but simple assuming it will become cold seems a tad premature at this stage imo, with a range of other potential options still on the table. However in the shorter term the only real trend that matters as far as I'm concerned is the drying trend. If I wanted to live by the coast I'd move 20 miles N to the coast, I don't particularly like it moving here with me...

Probably not as much as me Phil, I'm now surrounded by water and it's starting to feel a bit like the Alamo around here...again! It's at least encouraging to see some much colder air dropping into western Russia on the 06 GFS, with ridging extending well south of Svalbard, but agree there still does not looks to be an easy or guaranteed route to cold just yet.

A pattern change therefore IS coming, but at this stage no one (including the MO) know exactly where we are heading post mid month, as I'm sure Ian F would confirm despite his very encouraging recent post re Mogreps. Let's just wait and see what the next few days bring, but I still see no reason not to view the 2nd half of winter in a much more positive light for cold.

Polar Maritime Posted Today, 08:55 I agree Winter79, and how some posters can not see a pattern change towards the end of the month is beyond me. I think that is the main point steelmark, which I why I aked PM to quantify/clarify his post. There's no real point in asking why people can't see a pattern change coming later this month, without providing some sort of explanation/rationale to back it up...preferable with charts. That type of post is one that definately confuses new members and experienced ones alike imo.

Perhaps you could explain how you see the pattern change coming about PM?

Very much back to earth with a bump this morning, with both the big two flatly refusing to give up on the Atlantic dominated pattern. Rather worryingly GFS also keeps thing pretty active right though to the end of the low res, whereas after another progressively less unsettled week ECM again wants to build pressure; however it's probably worth noting it's been very poor post T+168hrs on a few occasions recently. ECM

Perhaps not unsurprisingly a very different looking FI on the 12 GFS, with the Atlantic shown to return after a brief interlude. However, it's no more or less likely to verify as shown than the colder 06 FI was, so for now I'm happy to concentrate on the drier, less volatile trend which is now consistantly starting to get modelled in the low res part of the run...anything has to be an improvment on the current setup imo.

It tends to get used more across the other side of the pond Nick, seen it a lot in past NOAA outputs and I would definately describe it as a meteorological term. Anyway that aside, if the latest GFS is to be believed you could well be 'phasing' into shorts and t-shirts down there come next week... Pyrennean snow cover must be starting to suffer by now?

Indeed, this has happened on many occasions, as has it latching onto a pattern in FI, then uncerimoniously dropping it and never returning to it. That highlights the perils involved in even looking at FI for trends, because quite often those trends run for some time in FI but never make it into the low res part of the run..a la carrot, stick and donkey - we never quite get there.

If FI always verified as shown, most winters would be 47's or 63's, with most Summers 76's or 95's. There have been a few occasions that FI charts from GFS have got very close to verifying, Dec 10 probably being one of the best and most recent examples, but finding them is like finding hens teeth tbh. Firstly I think we have to start seeing some consitancy of evolution in FI, that has hardly been the case across the last few days either, but without question the prospects for something colder this month are greater than we saw throughout Dec...more patience is and will be required though imho.

I think the main reason is far to many of us have been badly bitten by the GFS low res over the years, so given the overall set up for now the odds of FI verifying is low....not completely out the question, but low. Also lets assume the low res was full of bitter cold from the north and east, but FI swing winds around to a mild SW direction - how many members would accept it as possible, let alone right? Probably wise to view FI in a consistent way whatever it shows, but once/if those charts start to consistently enter the low res it may be time to get exited.

I think you'll find there's a better one on Pluto...with a very active winter model watching thread....

Problem is those charts are notorious for overdoing snow/snow potential. Given everything I can see some low level sleet is likely, but any wet snow will be confined to higher elevations unless the rain becomes heavy enough for evap cooling.

Yep...but maybe not until Dec

Once again nothing in the overnight runs to support a pattern change to colder conditions, indeed both the big two remain heavily Atlantic dominated, suggesting mean temps will remain on the mild side of average overall. In the absence of a cold outlook, the main straw to clutch must be the eventual slowing and weakening of the Atlantic train though, with at least some 'drier, less volatile' conditions in prospect during the latter stages of the run. Re the ECM32, it appears it has prompted the MO to extend the unsettled conditions through mid month in their latest update, but they maintain the hint of something potentially colder later in the month. GFS ECM

The MO are not forecasting a wintry 2nd half of Jan though Frosty....their latest output simply suggests it's a possibility, not a given, so things have to be kept in context here imo. UK Outlook for Friday 17 Jan 2014 to Friday 31 Jan 2014: Current indications point towards unsettled conditions persisting through mid-January. Some signals are emerging suggesting that the weather may undergo a change later this month allowing colder conditions to then become increasingly likely. This would increase the risk of some wintry conditions developing during the second half of January. A change to a colder weather type would also increase the potential for more settled conditions leaving a lower risk of wet and windy spells than has recently been the case. Issued at: 1600 on Thu 2 Jan 2014

Another very familiar run from ECM this evening (bar the couple of recent blips), with the Atlantic continuing to throw system after system at us, albeit rather more slowly and with slightly less vigour post T+144hrs. So still plenty of wind and rain to come, especially during the first half of the period, with mean temps holding up a little above the seasonal average overall.

Cheers The PIT

Any idea what the latest verif stats at T+144hrs are Steve, or anyone? From memory wasn't UKMO one of the worst at that range recently?

Nothing really changed on this run imo, still Euro High, N Atlantic low and the core PV over Baffin. Probably the best that can be said for it is the trend towards drying things up mid month holds firm.

The point is the latest MO 16-30 day update wording has not changed and it won't until the latest ECM32 is available. Therefore it seems prudent to wait for this to be analysed and it's content possibly included, before assuming it will continue along the same path. Moreover if you want to talk about what they are actually saying, it might be worth reading what they are actually saying, because perhaps not unsurprisingly it is absolutely loaded with if's, but's and maybe's. Therefore nothing can or should be taken for granted imo, either regarding their next update or a return to colder weather from mid month. Still lots of water to flow under the bridge yet, but that said the signs are rather more positive than they have been for some considerable time.

Agh right, I thought he may have had access to some different info from MO. Wrong thread for discussing their output, but I think it wise to wait for their latest update based on the next ECM32.

What have they said to make your day?