shedhead

Fairly typical in this kind of pattern though Chris, with the Foehn effect created by the Scottish mountains warming the air considerably as it descends into places such as the Moray Firth. Looking at the flow on all 3 models for the remainder of the day 16c looks distinctly possible up there, whilst parts of the SE that hold onto fog until this afternoon could struggle in the low single digits.

As for the overrnight suites, the zonal train still looks set to arrive in the near future and then press on to an unknown destination deep into Russia during next week. As BFTP (glad to hear things have improved for you personally Blast) said the ECM is current worst case senario as far as amplification is concerned, with system after system blasting in on almost wholly mild SW'erly winds. UKMO and GFS do suggest a little more amplification at times, meaning a few 'colder' shots are possible, but once again this morning any thing cold looks at long way off...almost certainly post Xmas.

The GFS is a little less progressive at T+120hrs, meaning most of us should get away with a dry Saturday now, albeit mild and increasingly windy across the north and west.

There is still nothing to suggest HP will not be 'limpeted' over Europe for several weeks to come Chris. Yes is might slip a bit farther south at times, but despite the 'possibility' of some cooler phases if it does so the general pattern of Euro High, deep PV and a overall Atlantic flow that's on the mild side has not changed.

That would depend largely on the airstream MPG, but as a good rule of thumb only assume GFS maxima are correct or to low in Winter if fog and especially freezing fog is present. As for adding a +/- value in winter, 4 or 5 degrees is at the extreme end of the spectrum, but as today has proven infinately possible. In the current airstream or one directly from the SW a 1-3c correction would probably cover the vast majority of situations, but you also need to consider topography as GFS does not handle local effects particularly well and as can easily 5c and more out. Clearly GFS does not always undercook winter temps, but in my experince it does so far more times than it overcooks them.

Fair point Rab, but this discussion is actually about the GFS model and it's prepensity to undercook maxima....not a subject that hasn't been raised several times before tho I grant you.

Only in so much as you posted the GFS predicted max charts to make your point re future temps, but as today proved these can easily be 4 or 5c out. IF that is the case what looks like normal or rather mild maxima actually turn out to be very mild maxima.

Already 10c in Bristol too where MPG is, so if the sun breaks through there 11-12c should be on the cards...which is not far from the GFS predicted max.

Here is the 11.50 ob from Glasgow MPG, showing temp of 14c, with a max of 15c looking very possible... prob best not to rely to heavily on GFS predicted temps, whether they be max or min. . EGPF 101150Z 21014KT 9999 FEW021 BKN038 14/08 Q1021

Of course warren, but 3.4c is as much the exception as 14.0c is. Bottom line is most of the UK is on the mild side, which is all that was actually suggested.

Indeed Mapantz... just as an example for MPG, here are GFS's pedicted maxima for today based on the 06...so just a few hours hence. Compare these with the current actuals...... Already 11-13c across much of Scotland/N Ireland and likely to max out 12-14c, perhaps locally 15c. Note 14c just south of Glasgow at noon!!. Given the fact the mid Dec ave max for Scotland ranges from 6.0 to 8.0c, temps some 6-8c above average can rightly be described as very mild imo. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/maps/current?LANG=en&DATE=1386676800&CONT=euro&LAND=UK&KEY=UK&SORT=2&UD=0&INT=24&TYP=temperatur&ART=kartealle&RUBRIK=akt&R=310&CEL=C&SI=mph Those of us who quoted these potential localised maxima last week got rather slated, not least because rather too much store is set in what GFS predict.

Hi gtltw - That's why I was at pains to say... I think the best way to simplify things is - increasingly unsettled, becoming mild/very mild for a time, then turning a bit colder later...but nothing in the way of proper cold as far ahead as we can reliably look. I understand we are not quite there yet everywhere, but it is already the case for much of the UK to be fair.

Posting 'facts' about something as subjective as model watching/interpetation is almost impossible. Would be very boring if it were otherwise to be honest.

I think the best way to simplify things is - increasingly unsettled, becoming mild/very mild for a time, then turning a bit colder later...but nothing in the way of proper cold as far ahead as we can reliably look.

No unless the AH has a white beard and wears a big red outfit....

Might be a case of be careful what you wish for though....not sure a major storm right on Xmas would be on many peoples 'must have' list.

Clearly a long way out, but GFS still wants this Icelandic beast to push somewhat colder, more seasonal conditions S in the week before the fat man arrives..

Morning Ian...succinct but pretty much spot on based on the overnight suites, which remain dire for cold prospects. The only interest in the run up to Christmas and probably across the period itself looks set to be some stormy conditions if the pattern eventually shifts far enough SE, but as far as anything wintry is concerned the wait goes on....perhaps now into Jan if SK's post re the ECM32 is concerned...

Both the GFS and UKMO 12 runs really start to fire up the Atlantic, the former being significantly more active than it's 00 predecessor and far more in line with this morning ECM. Will be very interesting to see if the 12 ECM now maintains or even develops the unsettled theme still further.

IF it came off (and at T+384hrs it's a massive IF) it would certainly feel cold in that Pm flow...especially across the N.

The 06 GFS has swung rather more into line with the more unsettled ECM at +T+192hrs, by dropped the HP into France and producing a strong and very mild SW flow. Thereafter FI does introduce a rather less flat pattern, so maybe some 'colder' spells at times, but anything cold still looks a very long way off...for now.

Oh dear....have thought for some time now that this Winter is going to be a slow burner, with the best chance of any sustainable HLB being post mid Jan. Do you have any idea if UKMO are also thinking that the 2nd half might deliver something most of us crave?

Hi Ian...yes the PV on ECM looks very menacing, both regard to intensity and it's position over Baffin. I too was surprised at METO's wording yesterday and fully expect a volte face from them today. GFS has the mild air getting close to the Urals next week....next stop Ojmjakon...

Indeed Nick, the mild pattern is locked in for the foreseeable, but looking at the overnight outputs there's still a fair degree of uncertainty regarding just how zonal things become, with GFS keeping pressure considerably higher and even bringing a large anticyclone back as we enter FI. ECM for the same time is not buying it though and is busily winding up a system out west.

Bartlett or not, there is nothing at all in the model suite so far this evening to suggest anything other than an ongoing predominace of mild weather. No point whatsoever in trying to make a silk purse out of a sows ear, the current outputs are about as dire as it gets for cold prospects - no one has to like it, but we do have to accept it.