shedhead

Maybe a tad pessimistic karyo, but there's no getting way from the fact that prospects for cold weather dominance look far, far worst than the prospects for mild weather dominance. I still think we're looking at a winter of 2 distinct halves here, with the cold most of us crave far more likely to arrive via some solid HLB post mid Jan. Until then anything even remotely wintry should be considered a Brucie Bonus imho.

Hardly a big freeze GP...what do they suggest for Glasgow, Manchester, Cardiff and Plymouth btw?

Take your point Great Plumb, but I'll be surprised to see temps as low as GFS are suggesting by midweek. Both ECM and UKMO have a less continental flow source by Thurs, so whilst some parts of England and Wales may not be mild as such, most of us will be imo, at least from a geographical standpoint.

Fairly solid agreement this morning that the Atlantic will be back by next weekend, so after a largely dry, mild week it turns increasingly unsettled, with wind and rain for all and temps well above the seasonal average. Looking at FI there are hints that the pattern might sink a bit allowing at least some temporary colder incursions from the NW, but for now that remains a long way off and is probably not worth building hopes up to highly over for now. GFS ECM UKMO

Indeed Gavin, mild it's going to be for most of us, no amount of tears, tantrums and wishful thinking is going to change that fact. The 12 runs see ECM somewhat keener to maintain the more settled conditions through next weekend, but GFS brings the Atlantic by Friday. Into the following week both the big 2 are now singing from the unsettled hymnsheet, with ECM going for some particularly vigorous LP systems running NE'wards close to Scotland, meanwhile FI on GFS remains a mixed but essentially mild bag. I see nothing in this evenings outputs to suggest anything in the way of cold, either pre Xmas or perhaps even across the holiday period itself, so in the absence of that I'll just be hoping we find ourselves in a dry, settled interlude come the big day itself.

Well the evening runs are now complete and the 2 overriding signals remain dry and mild, but temps could still be close to average across some central and eastern parts of England. Quite why some continue to deny what is (and has been for some time) staring us right in the face still puzzles me, but like it or not we are entering Bartlett territory and those that have been here before know all to well that getting out of it can be a very longwinded process. By all means keep looking for +ives, some will come and go for sure across the coming days, but at the same time don't be completely in denial of where we are heading - the route is now very clearly defined, its just the details of our escape that are currently proving elusive...for now.

Well it's always zonal somewhere HD, but I guess we refer to it as such when those conditions are directly affecting all parts of the UK to varying degrees. As CC said earlier the current pattern does not mean an automatic return to more zonal conditions, but it's a bit like saying just because Swansea are 3-0 down to Man Utd at half time they can still win.

More of the same on the 12 runs so far, very much groundhog day as others have alluded to. That said I'm still not sure who has suggested they expect a quick return to zonality, slow is how I saw it described earlier and as I said this morning 'painfully slow'.

I would take those or any other models predicted temps precisely as read fg, they're no more than a guideline. Overall we will be in a mild pattern next week as things currently stand, though clearly not everywhere and definately not as mild as it could (and eventually might) be.

Always likely to be the case in the predicted set up SS....still think we have to potential to see some anomolously mild temps in favoured (or prone, depending on your viewpoint) areas across the north and west next week. Overall the big picture remains a mild one for most of us, except perhaps across a small part of central and eastern England where temps could be close to average - the only real questions for me remain how quickly will the HP sink and the Atlantic kick into gear? Unfortunately the current answers look to be painfully slowly and probably just when we don't want it too...right on Xmas.

I know you've been watching the models for a while Nick, so can I ask what you make of the GEM overall? In this instance it seems to take the Svalbard low away much quicker in the T+144-168hr range, which in turn allows heights to build close to the White Sea and then regress into Scandi. Looks a bit odd to me, but it would not be the first time it's picked up on what looks like a small change that ultimately has large implications. No link posted John...

Not quite sure what you are getting at here tight isobar...can you elaborate?

Excellent points WB...however I suspect if it were now bitterly cold/snowy and Ian F had suggested the MO/ECM 32 dayer was keeping the bitter cold and snow in place until month end, very few would be offering up the same excellent points that you have above.

Typical daily maxima range from 5.5c in the far north to 8.5c in the far south in early/mid Dec SI. Here are the predicted max from GFS between Sun -Thu next week. What is clear from these is the mildest weather is likely early next week, when all areas are shown to have above average maxima. As we get into midweek there is a clear cooling trend, but even come Thursday temps are average at best across the UK as a whole. Given the predicted airflow there will be areas in the north and west that see temps higher than those shown due to local effect, similarly there will be areas in the east that due to local effects are on the cool side, but given these charts your contention that temps will be average at best and below in the SE is flawed.....unless you have data to prove the contrary of course ?? Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu

The current outputs suggest the UK may become the new Atacama, with the very dry looking outlook still being the main signal. As Nick S alluded to the orientation of the high could make a big difference to temps across our relatively small island next week, but for now I see it as being on the mild side for most (and locally very mild), with areas SE of a line from Portland to the Humber being closer to average.

If nothing else, highlighting just how fickle and of limited use this particular product is. Back to the 12GFS, no major changes in the overall pattern touted by the 06, but at least it's picked up on the Cambridgeshire cold pool early next week....

As has been said many times in here (mainly when they are calling for a milder outlook of course ) the longer term MO public forecasts posted on the web are not always accurate, indeed only earlier this week Ian F referred to them as something of a poison chalice for them.

And make them ready for the ski's, snow shoes and sledges we'll be needing after half time I hope...

Once the next 36hrs are out the way I just can't see the dry weather going on as long as GFS currently suggests...something has to give from around mid month, but the question is what? I think Ian B's suggestion that the high will sink and an increasingly unsettled pattern will consequently develop is the most likely evolution currently, with my book looking Zonal 60%, E/NE'erly 10% any other 30%

True CC, but you seemed pretty happy to back Ian F's call for battleground weather in the 10-15 day range only yesterday. fergieweather, on 03 Dec 2013 - 08:52, said: CreweCold Over 80 likes on this post. Awesome. Always good when the Metoffice start to pick up on a potential cold pattern change. 'Battleground style issues'........love it!

Thanks for that Interitus. However if we boil this down to simplistics, I think the vast majority of us would have more confidence in a predicted SW'erly pattern verifying more accurately as shown at T+144hrs than N'erly or E'erly pattern...despite the fact we'd hope for the opposite. Now that is not to say we nescessarily have more confidence in the overall pattern, lets face it even later this week the N'erly progged is going to verify to a degree....it's the accuracy of the eventual SW'erly patterns that are far superior imo. Edit: Even within 24hr of tomorrows event the cold has been significantly downgraded, perhaps by as much as 4-7c for many parts of England and Wales...I have never seen anything like that happen with weather progged to come from the SW at that range.

Exactly, so best to leave judgement until Dec 31st, whether that be in praise of his forecast or not. Re Ian F...no, simply suggested the SE could be closer to average.

The points you make are quite correct when looking at charts in FI such as the T+204hr ones you've posted, but not in what most would consider the 'outlook'. Moreover, I'm not sure anyone has talked about it being mild everywhere at that range. The mild, milder, mildest...call it want you will synoptics look like being early next week based on the latest output, i.e in outlook not FI territory. Where we go thereafter is still open to question.

Well IF the 06 GFS verifed we would be looking at a very dry, if not exceptionally dry first 2/3rds of Dec, with little sign on the T+384hr of wet weather returning immediately thereafter either. This does look to be the overridding signal for now, but without question temps would be on the mild side of average too for most parts of the country.

Indeed, not for the first time GFS picked up the weakening trend, but to be fair UKMO started downgrading the N'erly quite significantly yesterday too....gone from 'blink and you'll miss it' to just 'miss it' now for the vast majority.