shedhead

Yes SI, fair point re months end, however I must also ask you to read my post correctly, as I simply stated 'but at least as far as ambient air temps are concerned it will be on the mild side generally,' Moreover your contention that 'more a case of alternating mild and cold with cold becoming more dominant in the latter stages' is rather misleading imo. There is not one day on any model that could be considered 'cold', in fact even the coldest days shown are average to rather cold at best. Finally when looking at the daily mean temps, that lack of any real overnight low mimima is likely to result in values of 2-4c above the mid Dec average, which equates pretty much to this... 'but at least as far as ambient air temps are concerned it will be on the mild side generally,'

Got to say as a cold weather lover SI I just don't get comments like this, indeed it's difficult to imagine a more dire set up for protracted cold than the current one. Yes the models appear to want to shunt the Jet ever further south, but even by Xmas Eve it's still firmly sat on it's big fat buttocks right over the Alps, with only tentative signs that it might consider moving on towards New Year. OK the odd 12-36hr shot of Pm air might make if feel it bit more seasonal at times, but at least as far as ambient air temps are concerned it will be on the mild side generally, especially across the southern half of the UK. Frosty said in an earlier post that it will feel more like Winter and it's hard to argue with that, but only because Winter in the UK is essentially wet and windy....unfortunately Winter from a wintry perspective still looks a very long way away and as such the current despondancy over this remains fully justified imho..

Little if anything in the way of change across the overnight model suites, with a very unsettled, locally stormy spell of weather to come. As is always the case in this kind of set up the north and west will bear the brunt of the wind and rain, but given the strength of the Jet timing each individual system will be problematic, as will nailing down the details on track and intensities. Still a small window of opportunity for something colder and more seasonal on the big day, but up until then it looks set to be on the mild side generally, especially across the south.

For the 4th or 5th GFS run in a row now the Op has been one of the coldest members in FI and actually the coldest member right on Xmas....yet again highlighting the folly of looking at T+288hr charts and discussing the marginalities of snow. Always worth checking the emsembles before getting to exited. There is of course a chance that the UK will be in Pm air at T+288hrs, but it's a slim one, with the chances of that chart verifying being even slimmer.

Indeed SI, even flatter being one of them....there will of course be changes, but at this juncture we can no more assume they'll be for the better/colder, than the worst/milder.

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Once again the 06 GFS Op is a clear outlier in the low res part of the run and unlike the 00 is the coldest member of all, highlighting the dangers of expecting the kind of charts previously posted for the big day. That said at least the mean sits pretty close to average after the 23rd, but whether that will still be the case in 6hrs time remains to be seen.

Yes, I must say I am not a huge fan of the ECM32, to my mind it has a penchant for modelling the kind of pattern that we're heading into and then locking it in for to long. That said tho I've never heard anyone say they rely on it soley and have absolute, un-questionable faith in it....it's one weapon in the overall armoury, not any kind of 'golden bullet'

Looking at the 06 GFS 10 day postage stamps the Euro high remains very much a feature. OK the main core might have drifted 11 or 12 miles farther E, but it looks as equally robust as the badly located PV does. it's not until the low res part of the run that it's shown to loosen it's grip, so until that trend starts to get modelled consistently inside T+180hrs I'd personally view even this with a fair degree of scepicism.

Very much so Nick, there is definately a feeling of deja vu developing for me at the moment, with the vortex currently looking very robust....almost with a 'come and ave a go if you think your ard enuff' look about it. Certainly not ready to chuck in the towel yet on my much colder 2nd half of Winter, but Ian's latest post combined with what I'm seeing is pushing me ever further towards Feb now being the best chance for some sustainable HLB.

Indeed, as has also be previously said this pattern once established can be very difficult to break and whether some like it or not, it (or slight variations on the general theme) has been responsible for pretty much writing off entire Winters in the past. That is not to say it'll be the case this season of course, as ever time will tell, but to my mind there's currently a rather different feel overall to what we've seen since 08....at least for now.

Thanks Ian....yes commented yesterday on the anomalous Scandi warmth and also noticed that re CFS, but doesn't it have a habit of throwing a spanner in the general works..

By this I assume you suggest the temp anomaly for the remainder of Dec is above average then Ian?

Think it's also worth considering the fact at this range GFS will not have modelled any spoiler shortwaves, so such a clean chart as this is unlikely 12 days hence.

Well after overnight minima between 8-12c for the majority of the country, anything other than a cooling trend would be a major surprise to be fair. All the main models are now singing from the same very unsettled, locally stormy hymnsheet up to and across the Christmas period, but any hope of snow on the big day remains very much a timing issue for now and as such a long shot. Looking at the 00 GFS London ensembles the Op was one of the coldest runs in FI, particularly around Christmas itself, with the mean around +3c rather than -3c.

Indeed, I think becoming very unsettled, locally stormy at times in the north and west is about as much as can be confidently said for now. The track and intensity of each individual system will continue to chop and change on every run, but the odds are many places will get something of a battering between now and the first Christmas morning sherry...

A direct feed off of a solidly frozen Scandi would be much colder than a direct feed off of what we look like seeing up there next week. Of course this is all yet to happen, hence my point that we will have to wait and see 'what if any implications' there are for UK cold.

Good post...the standout thing for me here is just how anomolously warm Scandi looks set to be, particularly the southern half of Finland. IF this verifies it's hard to see much lowland snow cover persisting south of the 65th parallel, with a steady thaw also likely across parts of NW Russia, especially if it rains heavily. What implications, if any this has for UK cold in the New Year remains to be seen.

Indeed Jo, but I'm sure most of us on here had figured that much out... As you have brought the MO and Christmas up, perhaps the best, least subjective guide is offered by their latest 6-15 day update. UK Outlook for Monday 16 Dec 2013 to Wednesday 25 Dec 2013: Through next week it should be windy across much of the UK. The most unsettled weather will be in the north and west, where there will be a continuing risk of heavy rain and severe gales. Across the south and east the rain should be less widespread and the winds lighter. It will be generally mild although some wintry showers are possible in the northwest, and there will be some overnight frosts. Through the weekend and into the following week there is still likely to be the risk of severe gales and heavy rain. It should still be mild across much of the UK although it may turn colder at times in the north, with wintry showers still possible. However, there will also be some sunshine in places.

Ave temps in Mid Dec are 6-9c north to south Frosty. So temps of 9-12c would be considered mild and 12-14c very mild. Clearly the strength of the wind will mean it feels anything but mild at times, but that has nothing to do with the defination of the ambient air temps. Looking at this mornings model outputs I can see nothing in the way of significant change up to and including Xmas, with the whole period quite easily summed up as unsettled, with showers or longer outbreaks of rain and often strong winds. Mild overall, but temps closer to normal during any brief Pm or RPm incursions. White Xmas (at least by the bookies defination) not out the question across the north, IF one of those Pm incursions is correctly timed, but that remains a very long shot at this stage.

The GFS 12 looks more progressive on the face of it, but this time yesterday it did much the same with the 'Icelandic Beast', only to unwind things again on the 18, 00 and 06. Still one to watch with interest though.....

Don't you start getting down Nick...we look to you for positive inspiration....not exasperation and perspiration... You are of course correct though, the only real issues now are can we shift that blob of PV to a more favourable postion and if so when? I know IB came in for a lot of stick when he suggested the pattern that now looks guaranteed to develop can be a real pig to break, indeed some entire noughties Winters were virtually written off by them, but hopefully this time the new year will herald a sea change in the hemispheric pattern.

Indeed, you'd struggle to pick a worst PV core location for UK cold atm, so without doubt patience is going to be required, perhaps quite a lot of it...

At least it looks like there'll be some weather though Nick, anything has to be better than the current mind numbing stagnation. Plenty of wind likely at times throughout the 06 run, with occasional shots of Pm or RPm air meaning at least a more seasonal feel every now and then, so infinately better than a constant train from Bermuda imo. IF this run verifies tho a good deal of air miles will need to be racked up to find a White Xmas....

The 850Hpa London 00 ensemble suite shows pretty solid clustering even 10-12 days hence, with the range of solutions at that time only spanning 6 or 7c, from 0c to around +7c. Also the mean stays pretty much above the average throughout the period, so IF this is correct and the flow is mainly from between S and W temps should be on the mild side overall. Will be interesting to see if the 06 sticks with this solid looking set up just prior to Xmas.