shedhead

Indeed, NAVGEM is significantly quicker in building heights towards the Pole and although it's not a hugely consistent model (tho better than when it was NOGAPS) it does show just how quickly things can change way ooooop N.

That would have to be weighed up against the prospect of further very wet weather though Frosty IF the cold fails to deliver. At least a Bartlett would mean a lot more drier weather for the exceptionally soggy south, so I guess given the option of that or a repeat of Dec most would now choose the former...especially those with a high tide mark half way up their living room wall!!

You are rapidly becoming the new Frosty ba... Agree though that if there has ever been a time during this extended Autumn to step back and look at the bigger picture, then this is it. On the face of it the charts still look far from inspiring within 1500 miles of the UK, but towards months end the Arctic pattern is being progged to undergo significant changes, which are not ones that will takes weeks to make themselves felt across the UK. Said in the Moans thread yesterday that the next week to 10 day represents the pivitol point for the rest of Winter and this morning I'm again rather more encouraged that things will fall on the right side of the fence.

I think we are now closing in on a tipping point across the next 7-10 days, which will dictate the direction of travel for the remainder of what has so far been nothing more that extended Autumn. Personally I do not see any kind of half way house here, we are either going back to an Atlantic pattern, albeit not as vigorous as December's, or the block is going to win out and give us a much colder and at times wintry Feb. Up until recently and since late Oct in fact I've been firmly in the latter option camp, now I'm probably 70-30 in favour of the former, but imo we do not have long to wait now for this to be settled.

Rather depressingly today is day one of the second half of official Winter and it finds most of us still awaiting the first snowflake and some of us even still awaiting the first air frost, so I guess the glass half full view must be that things can only get better...hopefully. As Nick F's excellent post said however prospects for the next week or so and perhaps even the remainder or Jan do not look encouraging as far a deep cold is concerned, with only enough minor changes in the overall pattern to slow and weaken the hiterto raging Atlantic train, rather than fully derail it. GFS does again look rather to progressive with it's return to a flatter pattern next week, but using recent longer term charts as a guide ECM could again be introducing to much amplification to the pattern, with something of a half way house blend probably being how things will end up later next week. Beyond that we are getting dangerously close to the start of Feb and the last third of official winter, so we really do need to see some tangible signs of a proper and sustainable pattern change across the next couple of weeks if winter 2013/2014 is not to be remembered for all the wrong reasons...well at least as far as this place is concerned!

Top quality ranting....

Agreed Nick, but let's face it it's rarely any different. Looking at the T+168hr from GFS, it's not hard to see how with some fairly minor changes the latter part of it's high res run could have ended up looking far more ECM like...the trouble is the same could pretty much be said about the opposite. To my mind the most important thing is to get the block in place first, at which point modelling it's future evolution should become a bit easier and more consistent....perhaps with a few welcome surprises too.

Wouldn't mind a tenner for every time I'd heard or seen this said GP. Easterlies modelled post T+144hrs probably fail to materialise 9 times out of 10, so whilst it's encouraging to see ECM has not given up completely on the idea I think it's prudent to assume it won't happen at this stage. That said we are now entering a period where the synoptics will be much more favourable than they have been all winter for this type of set up to develop, with what look like small short term changes possibly resulting in large term implication farther down the line, so if nothing else we do at least now have some interest/potential.

I spent a fair amount of time in Arctic Norway and I can tell you the experience of seeing an active Winter cold front go through is on another level to here. On many occasions I witnessed a 10c drop of temps inside 30 mins, but the most noticeable ones were close 15c, which meant you could literally watch ice forming on the puddles in the snow. On one or two occasions I saw all rain turn to all snow in a matter of seconds, a process that can take several hours to complete here at times....now that's proper weather which incidently most often occurred in their mildest winters.

Absolutely right, I and I bet everyone else in this forum has wished/hoped for a certain type of weather at some stage, as will most of the population have. We all know we can't control it, but there would be something a bit odd if for instance you set off for a weeks summer holiday in Newquay with your kids and didn't hope it would be dry...if for no other reason than rain = £££! Wish for what you like, but don't think wishing hard enough will make something happen...we see that daily in the MDT and it ain't happened yet...

cheeky_monkey, on 10 Jan 2014 - 14:11, said: Cheese Clearly it isn't a fact, so I shan't waste my time debating something so ridiculous with you. The fact is any particular weather type can become a pain if you are stuck in it for an inordinate amount of time. I love dry, hot and sunny summer weather, but a fortnight of that on the bounce and I'd be looking to see a change. I think a good variety of weather is always welcome, but unfortunately compared to Alberta our weather is pretty much boring full stop.

A good, informative read John, which puts the goalposts exactly where they should be...for now. Turning colder yes (to be fair It couldn't really become much milder), some if not a fair amount of optimism for cold eventually developing from much more promising synoptis than seen thus far all winter, but nothing currently to suggest the kind of more extreme senarios recently modelled will come to fruition any time soon. In other words...pretty much where we've actually been for several days now.

Agree Nick - it's easy to see where this appears to be going wrong as far as getting cold in UK, but exactly why it's going wrong is rather more difficult to nail down. The devil really does look to be in the detail here and as ever that will continue to chop and change, but for now I still think it wise just to focus on the fact all the big 3 build pressure solidly to our northeast by 120hrs....again that will do for now imho ECM GFS UKMO

Fair to say the 12 GFS has all appeal of a pound of chillies in your boxers, but UKMO is still half decent to say the least at 144hrs, with the potential to develop into something cold if it went to 168-192hrs. For now though all eyes turn to ECM, will it be Bollinger or Boddingtons? We don't have long til we find out.

The 144hr I posted shows decent ridging into Eastern Greeny at 144hrs, so IF that happens as shown I think there is more than a fair chance of some proper cold synoptics farther down the line. You know how difficult it is to get an Easterly set up and that difficulty is shared by the models in trying to nail the evolution of one, so expect there to be much more chopping and changing of the detail...as the last 24hrs has seen. However the big picture remains pretty much the same, so until that changes (as well it might) I wouldn't write anything off.

Come on SI, most unlike you to throw the metaphorical towel into the ring. Just think where we were this time last week, with the only chance of snow being on the summit of Ben Nevis for 10 mins overnight. The first bite at the cold cherry always looked to be a bit iffy, but at least it's going to turn colder and the pattern at T+144hrs is more than acceptable if we're prepared to be a little more patient. And yes before anyone asks...I am feeling OK

Indeed Tim, you only have to think back to the northerly that never was in late November for a perfect example. What looked like providing a widespread snow event for the north and even some wintryness for the south only 3 or 4 days prior ended up as a few sleet showers in Shetland, so we have to remain guarded. Looking at the latest T+144hr though (which is still as far ahead as I feel it's prudent to look) the overall pattern still looks pretty good for cold imo, with the Scandi HP ridging west into Greenland...that will do for now.

Not singling you out in any way here Tim, but how often do we see this type of post in this type of situation? What we definately do not want to see here is any really good synopotics flatly refusing to come inside T+144hrs, because when that kind of trend develops it tends to lock itself in, so as others have said the coming 24-36hrs looks pivotal in deciding what kind of bite this first cherry of Winter gets.

If you look closely at the Op line it splits into 2 at 00hrs on 15th.

I think it's a bit of both to be honest, but to my mind the GEM is not consistently good enough despite appearing extremely good from time to time - the difficulty is picking out those 'extremerly good phases, which is one of the main reasons why I only give it a cursory glance each run.

More like in another 90 mins...

'It's all relative' seems the most apt term this morning, because whilst the overall sense of disappointment is understandable, I don't think one of us would have refused the overnight runs this time last week. What we've seen slowly develop across the last 24hrs is nothing more than an adjustment to the original signal, the overall pattern going forward remains largely unchanged, but it does perfectly highlight just how the MO and this forurm handle potential cold spells post T +144hrs in diametrically opposing ways.

Fair point JH, not saying this is coming right off the Steppes quite yet, but I'd rather have air sourced from the Balkans than Barbados that's for sure..

I did a similar exercise last week, but perhaps worth repeating. It all happen in a week or so then and it may well do the same now. 16th Jan 47 24th Jan 47 Today 16th Jan 14

It's starting to look rather more Djokovic imo...with a bit of Federer thrown in too.... January 15th will be 2 days, both the 1st and 46th day of winter!