shedhead

Again 144hr is probably as far forward as we need to look imo and again the 'overall' pattern looks fairly stable, with some pretty cold surface air in place by that time. Yes there are shortwaves circling like sharks around a shipwreck, but that was always going to be the case, it wouldn't be a potential cold shot without um!

Probably wise to let the run complete, or at least the high res part of it, before reading to much into any possible changes...subtle or otherwise.

Think it's coming earlier this year NFG, was actually expecting Feb, but now the last third of Jan looks increasingly like it may be back in the frame. Looking at the shorter term I'm not yet convinced that next weeks first bite of the cherry will leave more than teeth marks or perhaps split skin, but thereafter we may see the whole thing absolutely inhaled.

You would think so SK, but No...expect plenty more '-5c 850hpa line 11 miles farther south across Surrey at 180hrs on this run' type comments over the coming days... Waiting on the 06 GFS ensemble suite now, will be intertesting to see where this Op fits as the 00 run was reasonable close to the mean. Edit - 06 Op one of the colder members, esp 16-19 Jan.

Once past 120-144hrs it matters not a jot if the 06 is slightly better/slightly worse or the same. The important fact is the overall evolution remains pretty solid, as long as doesn't change any inter run variability across one particular model is unimportant. However, we will as even need to look out for shortwave development IF things remain on track as far as timing is concerned, because they will crop up as sure as night follows day.

144hrs is realistically as far ahead as we need to look for now imo and perhaps not unsurprisingly the 06 is less clean by then....let the shortwave drama commence, you just knew it would

As ever there is no real point in discussing how long something will last before it's even arrived, especially when it's an E'erly and it's not due to arrive for 5 or 6 days. Let's see what the 06 goes for, because over the last few days it has been one of the keener GFS runs to build pressure to the NE. Just an aside...isn't it odd that when mild you can't wait to view the next updates for some hope, but when cold is progged you almost don't want to look in case it disappears again. OK, perhaps it's a personal thing...

Last week I posted some charts to show how in 47 we went from a miserable SW pattern to a bitter E pattern in little over a week and looking at the ECM those charts are pretty much replicated by it 00 output. Given what we have seen so far through extended Autumn the latest suites look very pleasing indeed, but most if not all of us know that getting E'erlies into the UK is very rarely as straightforward as the models suggest when past T+120hrs. A significant step in the right direction though and even earlier than I expected.

Oh yeah....well it is again now

Pity it's such a poor model though, because this chart looks like we might be starting to get somewhere at last...maybe a blue moon event tho, you never know.

Thanks for the update C. Is it fair to say you/they have backed away from this to a degree? 03 January 2014 - 20:40 Evening, the latest ECM is almost akin to our latest scrip. It is important for cold retention that heights continue to drop to the south of the uk. A pool of cold air not far from the UK. Changes are a coming, a soggy Southern Britain could soon become snow laden landscape come the second half of the month. Will up date latest UBIMET thoughts tomorrow. c

For now there is still nothing in the NWP to suggest a switch to colder weather across the UK anytime soon, BUT looking forward Ian F has has just posted there are some colder E members that the MO are not discounting. Given what we have seen so far this winter and more especially recently that should be good enough for most imo... but of course it never really is.

Indeed, I mused on Sunday that my fear was a Scandi high would develop to far east, meaning the North Sea becomes a frontal graveyard and we largely remain on the wrong side. However as I also said at the time, this kind of set up can at least bring some occasional temporary interest to easternmost areas.

Despite all the above Steve the MDT has been littered by posts from your self over recent years, literally hanging on the next GFS chart and shouting from the rooftops when said chart was full of cold or cold potential, whatever the timeframe. If you view GFS with such deep disdain, why even look at it or comment on it at all...or is it just in case that 'once in a blue moon it gets it correct'

The GFS is dead...long live the GFS. For now

Hi Snowballz - thanks for your clear and detailed reply. I fully appreciate what you have said and I can't/wouldn't argue with the points you made, but as I made clear from the off I was talking from a personal perspective.

As I said John it a purely personal viewpoint, but it's primarily based on what GFS and ECM have projected outside my front door, rather than across the wider scale. Post 144hrs GFS has been significantly better all Winter so far imo, as it was across most of Autumn and a good part of Summer.

Another excellent post Draztik and I must admit to sharing your confusion over the constant critisism of GFS. Of course it get things wrong at times and no doubt it is often more progressive and extreme re zonal pattern in particular. However as far as I'm concerned (not really interested in the so called verification stats) it has completely out shone ECM since early Autumn and it did so frequently across Summer too, especially post T+144hrs. I guess the only plausible explanation for the amount of abuse it receives is the fact it often shows what most don't want to see in Winter, but if it were a living thing I'm sure it would have successfully sued for deformation of character long ago....and won handsomely

Thanks Ian...everything remains on track then, just hope it actually delivers for the last third of Winter.

Clearly we don't have to like it, but I guess we do have to admire the sheer persistence and strength of the European warmth anomoly this winter, because it is now starting to look pretty damn impressive...and much of continental Europe looks set to become even warmer this week!!

Not really a lot that can be added to what's already been covered by Gibbys excellent post, but from a personal perspective I'm becoming increasingly encouraged by the big 2's want to build pressure and dry things out, especially next week...happy to see that develop first, then worry about cold afterwards, but how welcome would a week of strong easterlies be to suck up some of this moisture?

Indeed John, might well be out of the frying pan and into the fire this week, especially for this neck of the woods...hopefully Ian might also be able to shed (no pun intended!) some light on the risks as the MO currently see them.

My purely imby'ism concern right now is how wet is it going to be in the south this week. Lighter winds are all very well, but not if what looks like a potentially troublesome trough gets stuck over or close to the English Channel as a result...this really isn't the kind of setup I want to see come midweek...

OK, not really model related, but as it's quiet.....you gotta ask yourself if this is preferable over what we have? URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND352 AM CST SUN JAN 5 2014...LIFE THREATENING WIND CHILLS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY....VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE MOVING INTO NORTH DAKOTATODAY AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH MONDAY. LIFE THREATENING WINDCHILLS TO 65 BELOW ZERO ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. FROSTBITE CAN OCCUR IN 5 MINUTES OR LESS WITH THESE WIND CHILLS.AVOID OUTDOOR ACTIVITY.

Couldn't agree more weather eater - things were very different back then, indeed Dec 46 was nowhere near as zonal across Europe, with bitter E'erlies even reaching the UK at times.... Frankly my fear is a Scandi block will set up for the 2nd half of Jan, but probably just to far east, with the North Sea becoming a frontal graveyard. That kind of set up may well bring some interest at times to eastern areas, but Feb is still to month to watch imo. Interesting times ahead, with the worst now soon to be behind us, but still a good deal of patience will be required imo.