shedhead

Thanks for that C....some crumbs I guess, but the 33% you quoted means crumbs pretty much sum things up imo.

Tks a lot SS.

It does look very poor to be fair. Can't remember the last time I saw the -5c 850Hpa line pushed a 1000 miles east of Moscow in the depths of Winter, but I'm sure the locals love it given what they normally have to face.. Contrast our dire outlook to this blasting down across the Eastern US early next week...-10c 850Hpa line approaching N Florida!!

Indeed CHM, the lack or Eurasian snow cover is already a concern and if things pan out as progged we may not have much low level snow lying west of the Urals come mid month!! Clearly the continent will cool down considerably quicker once we change the airmass, but any initial Beasterly is likely to be more gums than teeth...

Excellent post Draztik, sums things up very nicely, if rather depressingly! Can I ask for a link to your final temp anom charts?

Agree with CS in so much as the whole ECM has not shifted towards GFS, there have been changes on both. However, post T+192hrs ECM has not unsurprisingly dropped the idea of HP over or close to the UK, with the now horribly familiar pattern of Euro High, Atlantic Low and Baffin PV again very much in evidence on both the big two at that timescale.

On the face of it an improvment for sure, but worth noting the few key bolded words imo. Perhaps not unexpected cautionary wording at this range, but still best kept in context for now imo.

Very much so Nick, it's a situation almost akin to the development of an Easterly, whereby all the parts of the jigsaw have to fall into place at pretty much exactly the right time. Stranger things have happened of course, but pinning any hope on it at this stage looks a tad foolhardy to say the least imho.

I think anyone who has watched the big two battle it out post T+192hrs so far this Autunm/Winter will have more reservations than the entire Sioux nation ever had over ECM's evolution. Personally I think we will end up with something of a half way house come later next week, with the Atlantic train slowing and gradually getting shunted towards a siding somewhat farther north, but I'm still not convinced the Trans Siberian Express will be leaving anytime soon with Galway on the board as it's final destination.

Well at least we have some major disagreement in the overall evolution post T+216, with ECM developing a Scandi high that extends across the UK... ...whilst GFS keeps the Atlantic train firmly on the tracks. Clearly they can't both be right, perhaps neither of them will be come late next week, but whilst my heart says ECM my head says GFS....for now at least.

Like it or not this looks like another sig blow for next Monday on GFS With UKMO not looking a million miles away from it for the same time. Sub 960mb lows so far this winter have been literally 10 a penny...

Hi Gaz...I was actually referring to this chart that I posted for the 15th Dec 46....

Never been a huge fan of pattern matching, but for the record Dec 46 was nowhere near as cyclonic as this month has been, indeed HP was often on the scene....as were E'erlies.

A good, clear PDF John, well worth a read by those keen to learn.

Agreed, I currently cannot see anything to suggest what Ian has indicated should not be the most likely outcome for Jan, but as I'm sure he would agree it must come with the usual caveats given the timeframe involved.

Thanks for clarifying your previous comments with the above Ian. If correct (and its a big IF...again in the interest of clarity for some) it does looks as though the best chance of meaningful cold will be across the final third of Winter, which hopefully will prove to be well worth the wait.

I think it is impossible to get a cold winter IF like now the core of the vortex meanders around Baffin/Hudson/Newfoundland throughout. Given the jet profile and associated depth of cyclogenesis in that area we would really struggle to get any meaningful cold into the UK and to be honest that is still how Winter 13/14 could end up panning out - like it or not it certainly isn't a complete non runner, but it's still a long way from becoming the form horse too though....at least for now.

Oh dear PC, these must be desperate times... Having taken a few days off model watching I was hoping to return to something at least a little more positive, but in truth the outlook remains pretty dire. My original thought pattern was we'd see the building blocks starting to shuffle into place early Jan, leading to a rather cold 2nd half of the month and a cold Feb, but even that currently looks a tad optimistic. Really didn't want or expect to be seeing charts like this a week into Jan, but that's just the way it is for now...as said before, we don't have to like it but we do have to accept it.

Looking at the 12 GFS panels it is encouraging to see the core of the PV finally lifting out of Baffin/Hudson Bay and higher pressure at least starting to hold firm at higher latitudes. That said the Atlantic train still looks rather a long way from slowly down significantly, let alone leaving the rails, but finally a 'trend' towards something 'colder' does appear to be slowly emerging.

06 GFS continues to show a continution of the current pattern well into January, with a succession of LP's and their associated frontal troughs bowling in off the Atlantic at times. Temps look set to be near or a little above the seasonal average, with any wintryness being transient and largely confined to higher ground. Even into FI it's hard to see a significant pattern change developing very quickly.

Given the current charts TEITS and in view of the fact Jan starts on Weds, it seems far more foolish to me to suggest the unsettled pattern is not going to continue into next month. (as for the mild and stormy bit, you added those words to describe the pattern going forward, I've not seen them used)

If you disagree, can you please post charts to support your view, because whats below suggests weather eater is spot on with his contention. No 'major changes' in the FI period you allued too either from what I can see. 'Tentative' signs of something 'potentially' colder and 'perhaps' more wintry towards mid month covers things more than adaquately for now imo.

shedhead, on 26 Dec 2013 - 17:51, said: bluearmy charts please shed ? both your statements are incorrect. Here you go ba. Not really sure how my statement above is incorrect on both counts.

Few would probably argue it was one of my most constructive AJ.... Well here we are post Xmas and entering the last knockings of Dec and there is still no sign of a colder pattern emerging, with max temps remaining near or a little above average for the bulk of the UK well into January. Given the generally unsettled pattern widespread overnight frosts will also remain conspicuous by their absence, ensuring mean temps probably end up on the mild side if anything, with any 'promising' charts like this remaining deep in FI....pretty much where they have been since Dec 1st.

w