shedhead

Well ae least we're not alone for a change. Looks like being one of the mildest Xmas Days across much of central and eastern Europe for many years, even the bulk of lowland Scandi will see maxima above freezing and double digit highs are possible in parts of eastern Europe. I'd imagine the organisers in Sochi will start to have a few sleepless nights if this pattern extends deep into Jan...

Merry Xmas all - hope Santa delivers what you want, but if imminent northern blocking is top of your wish list there could be some disappointment ahead. Gotta say nothing in the current output leads me to believe a significant pattern change is likely any time soon. Looks as though the first half of Jan at least will see more of the same in general, though hopefully with time the weather will become less volatile and progressively colder, ahead of what I still think will be a wintry 2nd half of the season. Enjoy!

Yes indeed TSNWK. I know very few take any notice of what I say on here, but for those who do I still think we are in for a very interesting 2nd half of Winter, especially Feb....

Still struggling to see any signs of a pattern change within the model suite, in fact the charts are starting to look all to familiar, with HP either over Europe or the Med. The deep PV continues to sit precisely in the wrong spot for UK cold and even as we move into the New Year it's very much as you were... No doubt some will manage to put a +ive spin on things, but it still looks like being a very long road to a genuine cold pattern from here.

Back from a couple of days off from model watching and hoping (rather against hope in all honesty) to see at least some changes being signalled in the overall pattern, but alas it's just not to be. That said the lack of 'wintry' interest is still balanced to some degree by what looks like being a very lively spell of pre Xmas weather...and that's putting it mildly! OK not a beast from the east, but most certainly a beast from the west, with a potential centre of sub 930mb!! What we're probably (and I sure some are saying hopefully) seeing here is an example of GFS's persensity to over deepen many LP's, but even so this has all the hallmarks of a significantly disruptive feature at any time of the year, let alone on Xmas Eve!!

Agree gtltw, I think it's worth pointing out that given the overall pattern things could be a whole lot worse for cold prospects, in fact what we're currently seeing is pretty much a Cordon Blur meal produced from ASDA Basics ingredients. However, there is no escaping the fact we're looking far more ASDA than Fortnum & Mason across the remainder of December, yes we might get the odd caviered cracker or perhaps a sip of Bolly, but in general the Pot Noodle and Wotsits diet goes on.

Rain here and 6.7c, down from 7.6c

Three or four 'colder' looking GFS runs might have started to give the impression that fortunes in the current battle may be changing, but looking at the big picture prospects for the overall war remain very similar. As ba allued to above the extended ens are really not keen to keep the jet in a more southerly position, meanwhile the PV may well be set to take a few punches, but it's still a long way from being on the ropes...let alone throwing in the towel.

shedhead, on 18 Dec 2013 - 14:24, said: Glenn W The current & medium term certainly looks to be on the Chilly side, unless you can show me otherwise? I woke up to a Frost yesterday, and it was bitter this morning, with potential snow predicted during the storm, i'd call that not average. You are correct in assumption, some days will "feel" a little warmer, but I suppose that depends where you are, certainly not even close to mild weather. Those charts are often innacurate Glenn, but I guess if you're using words like 'bitter' to describe conditions this morning you are clearly concentrating on how things feel (and are likely to feel) as oppose to how they actually are (and are likely to be).

Again not really the case imo Glenn - marginally colder overall post Xmas, but much colder no, with shedloads of milder members still evident right out until the end of the run. Nothing really significant here yet that I can see.

There is still nothing in the current short, medium or long term modelling to suggest it will be cold Glenn. Temps look set to be near average across the northern half of the UK and still on the mild side generally for the southern half, though it will of course often feel cold in the wind and rain.

Agree re some colder scatter options, but not sure you can say 'nothing remotely mild appearing'...some of those runs maintain temperature level close to where they are presently.

Yep and if yer Auntie had balls she'd be yer Uncle....

Try here TL........http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsreaeur.html Looks very different to whats expected this time next week.

The NAE does have a history of overdoing snow though HD. I recall that before the Arctic plunge that never was earlier this month, the NAE was calling for 30cm of lying snow around here. In the end the only thing lying proved to be the NAE....

Just when you thought things couldn't get any wilder and wetter, guess what?...They get wilder and wetter. As Icebreg said the details will clearly change at the kind of range still involved, but charts like this suggest Xmas 2013 may well be remembered for all the wrong reasons meteorologoically.

Unfortunately still no major changes in the overall output this evening. The Euro high might be getting pushed increasingly onto the ropes, but it very much looks like it's response will be to come back out swinging, with any Pm air finding it very difficult to land more than the odd glancing blow. At this stage any game changing haymaker remains a long way off. Not understanding all the current angst in here either. To my mind in winter setups like this it's the genuine weather enthusiasts that keep this thread going, not the 'it will be cold at any cost' crew. They will all be back soon enough, so for now those of us who have an interest in all type of weather should be able to co-exist much more respectfully.

Indeed HD, but history has shown it can be very resilient and shifting it for more than a few days can extremely difficult. Looking at the 06 GFS it does take a bit of a beating in the medium term, but like an unwanted house guest it's very much back again in the early new year.

Agreed, therein continues to lie the main problem. The Euro high still looks very robust until early next week, but at least on the face of it the colder air does appear to make in roads by Xmas Day. However at the range involved this transition should still not be considered a given imo, with far more spoiler systems likely to be modelled in the overall flow when inside c. T+120hrs. Until we see some proper height rises to the north that not only look feasible, but also sustainable, any 'colder' shots are likely to remain fleeting affairs - especially in the south.

Interesting developments over the US just before Xmas according to GFS, with the core of cold getting lifted well north and +15c 850Hpa air affecting some parts of the NE that have seen recent blizzards.

Agree completely Nick. I think we can and probably will prise the colder door open at times and that could well result in at least some of the white stuff, especially across the higher ground in the north, but as you say making the case for a 'cold spell' remains very difficult. That said, last nights overnight mins of 11-13c in many places do look like being a thing of the past, so I suppose you could argue that given those sort of values the only possible way is up.....or down if talking about temps rather than expectations. PS: Seeing winter wonderland scenes in the media from Jordan and Israel this weekend is hardly going to lighten the mood in here either...

Excellent post overall Nick, but the most telling sentance for me is the one highlighted. It's seems to be taken as a given now (born primarily out of desire) that the Jet will sink south towards Xmas and in turn dislodge the limpet Euro high, but those of us who have seen many similar set ups over the years will be very wary of making this assumption. It's no coincidence that this pattern started to emerge 4 or 5 days ago in the outlook period and that is effectively where it still remains. As we get closer to Xmas there is still a very real danger that the models will start to pick up spoiler features and that the Jet alignment become far less favourable. I have no evidence to support this claim, but I think widespread cold zonality progged to develop post +T168hrs fails to verify on far more occasions than it does, in fact cold zonality is a relatively rare feature...without some sig changes at higher latitudes, this still has all the hallmarks of another such occasion imho.

Well it may not be cold and it may not be wintry, but it's certainly not boring either, with the overnight runs showing the potential for some genuinely stormy conditions right up to and even including Christmas itself. Clearly at this range detail will chop and change considerably, but it already feels like there is an air of inevitability about a big blow on the 25th, with this ECM 216hr suggesting the potential for widespread disruption/damage.

I'd like to think you are right SI, but we've been here many times before with this kind of pattern, so I'll believe it when I see it. I'd say the current outputs still have a very clear overall bias towards mild over cold, equivalent at the other end of the spectum to a fortnight of strong winds directly from the Steppes.

Well the MO forecast posted by Mr Frost is far more indicative of my post SI. This goes out to the 30th, which is very much the latter end of the period model wise and they sum the temps us thus.... It should still be mild. Yes they go onto mention colder, showery interludes, especially later, but again that just emphasises the points I was making. Unfortunately I just can't see how you or anyone else can look at the current outputs and make an equal case for cold or mild, not even longer term IF the latest GFS is correct, but perhaps I'm missing something.