Robbie Garrett
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Posts posted by Robbie Garrett
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4 minutes ago, Daniel* said:
That doesn’t fully explain that though the mortality rate is over twice that of Japan. Surely you would expect to see very similar?
I was having a conversation with my mum about this. Italy is very clean. Maybe that's why they are suffering more? The virus is hurting them more than say someone from the UK.
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5 minutes ago, Paul Faulkner said:
WHO are playing a dangerous game and have been since day 1.
Reckon all the numbers are wrong too?
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WHO have posted their findings from a research team in China;
Routes of transmission
QuoteCOVID-19 is transmitted via droplets and fomites during close unprotected contact between an infector and infectee. Airborne spread has not been reported for COVID-19 and it is not believed to be a major driver of transmission based on available evidence; however, it can be envisaged if certain aerosol-generating procedures are conducted in health care facilities. Fecal shedding has been demonstrated from some patients, and viable virus has been identified in a limited number of case reports. However, the fecal-oral route does not appear to be a driver of COVID-19 transmission; its role and significance for COVID-19 remains to be determined. Viral shedding is discussed in the Technical Findings (Annex C).
One good thing is, Airborne spread has not been reported for COVID-19 and it is not believed to be a major driver of transmission based on available evidence.
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I've done a Spreadsheet on my home computer with the following data. I'll try be as accurate as possible.
Let me know if you spot any errors.
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The UK can't control this the way China did. A few things spring to mind.
- 1) NHS couldn't build a hospital in 10 years, let alone 10 days.
- 2) Police forces are overstretched
- 3) The Government wouldn't want to be seen placing Army on the streets.
- 4) The DfT is highly unlikely to order the CAA to close down the UK FIR and thus prevent any flights entering the country, especially when the power of the likes of Willie Walsh with Spanish Airways, sorry I meant BA knocking on the door about shareholders etc etc
The only credible solution is to close the UK FIR, close all transport networks and businesses for 10-14 days. Once things are under control, allow all UK airports to operate 24 hours for a set period, allow a relaxation on Sunday trading till end of the year. Christmas Day basically, except airports are closed.
Just now, The PIT said:Apparently a 2nd death in the UK. An elderly man in Milton keys was admitted to a public ward with pneumonia. If hospitals are making such simple mistakes even now well one is speechless.
A few hospitals have multiple patients, KCH London is one. That's why I suspect they've removed naming locations....
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10 minutes ago, Azazel said:
Sorry to quote this again, but I'm not very good at interpreting the data on that site.
Am I correct in saying they tested a strain of Covid found in the UK between the 13th and 23rd of January 2020 and after studying it saw that it's lineage goes back to sometime in November? Suggesting this thing has been in the UK since November?
Sorry if that sounds stupid haha but that's what I got from it.
I believe the initial strains from Wahun were later linked to further cases elsewhere. UK shows to have had strains of the virus then, then if you look properly then spread elsewhere.
Science huh..
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12 hours ago, swebby said:
That actually sounds a lot like influenza, especially the 3-4 hrs from first symptoms to being an utter mess, but the reasonably quick recovery suggests either something else, or that you are an extremely healthy individual. NB - Influenza does not tend to cause the very sore throat or the nasal waterworks that people experience with common colds.
What did your partner think it was? Being a nurse she would probably be well trained to spot the difference between flu and heavy colds.
There was a bug doing the rounds globally around Christmas that was being described as a flu like illness. It did for the England cricket team in South Africa, and also the Kiwi cricket team touring Australia. Also struck down a number of the south African players by the end of the series.
will not shake hands during the upcoming tour of Sri Lanka because of the coronavirus outbreak.16 hours ago, Azazel said:I would love to get tested out of curiosity to see if I had it or not via the presence of antibodies.
15 hours ago, Azazel said:No I haven't - it's more curiosity than anything. I don't want to take away medical resources from those in need. Definitely wasn't a cold though, I would put my mortgage on it - it was nothing like a cold in-fact.
If they do want people to test though I would be more than happy.
8 hours ago, nick sussex said:I think the UK government has done quite well so far but I’m not sure about this new policy of not disclosing locations .
Some might argue that by giving locations you can make people complacent in areas which haven’t had confirmed cases .
On the other hand you need to keep the public onside and really need to be as transparent as possible .
Personally I like to know where cases are popping up , and especially if there are areas with a cluster of cases .
There are four regions of France at the moment which have the vast majority of cases and I won’t be going there anytime soon!
My symptoms were, a dry cough, aches in the body, fever, pain above the nose. But zero phlegm.
This website traces back a strain being located in the UK (Respiratory Virus Unit, Microbiology Services Colindale, Public Health England) between the 13th and 23rd of January 2020. I just looked at my Medical Records, went to doctors on 15th January. Was told I have a viral infection on that date.
"This phylogeny shows evolutionary relationships of HCoV-19 viruses from the ongoing novel coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic. All samples are still closely related with few mutations relative to a common ancestor, suggesting a shared common ancestor some time in Nov-Dec 2019. This indicates an initial human infection in Nov-Dec 2019 followed by sustained human-to-human transmission leading to sampled infections."
auspice
NEXTSTRAIN.ORGHaving looked at this, I am more convinced.
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My local hospital, also one of four major trauma centres in the south of England has two confirm positive. What is absolutely wrong with people, why would you go to a hospital with symptoms of Covid 19 or if you have travelled from that location?
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4 hours ago, hammerb32 said:
This seems significant to me, would mean that the virus was well established in Europe longer than assumed?
I found the following on Reddit; Researchers at the Imperial College London found that, in Wuhan alone, there were 18 undetected cases for every 1 confirmed COVID-19 infection. This gave them an estimation that as of mid-Feb there were 1.5 million people infected with COVID-19 in Wuhan.
1 hour ago, Daniel* said:The bubble has probably burst nick it may take a few weeks for this to be truly realised, a case in Lewisham today SE London borough very close to home. It is circulating about in London silently no doubt.
18 minutes ago, Frost HoIIow said:It will spread like wildfire in London. Super densely populated area. Things like the tube will be a big carrier no doubt about it.
This makes me think. I am positive that this has already done the rounds in London.
A lot of the students that live near me are from China. A lot of them go to UAL and Monday 6 January 2020 onward a lot of them would have returned from China, right after the virus had started.
I and three of my other colleagues had symptoms of the flu/virus. I go to the GP (Two weeks after the above date) and told that I have a virus. Should clear up. Took two weeks to clear up.
Point being, this has done the rounds already. People in London and that travel to London are NOT clean.
Anyway, the following. Source: Click Here
- This virus is not SARS, it’s not MERS, and it’s not influenza. It is a unique virus with unique characteristics.
- Both COVID-19 and influenza cause respiratory disease and spread the same way, via small droplets of fluid from the nose and mouth of someone who is sick.
- However, there are some important differences between COVID-19 and influenza.
- First, COVID-19 does not transmit as efficiently as influenza, from the data we have so far.
- With influenza, people who are infected but not yet sick are major drivers of transmission, which does not appear to be the case for COVID-19.
- Evidence from China is that only 1% of reported cases do not have symptoms, and most of those cases develop symptoms within 2 days.
- Some countries are looking for cases of COVID-19 using surveillance systems for influenza and other respiratory diseases.
- Countries such as China, Ghana, Singapore and elsewhere have found very few cases of COVID-19 among such samples – or no cases at all.
QuoteTo summarize, COVID-19 spreads less efficiently than flu, transmission does not appear to be driven by people who are not sick, it causes more severe illness than flu, there are not yet any vaccines or therapeutics, and it can be contained – which is why we must do everything we can to contain it. That’s why WHO recommends a comprehensive approach.
QuoteIt will spread like wildfire in London. Super densely populated area. Things like the tube will be a big carrier no doubt about it.
Which begs the question? How do we know it already hasn't? Considering the above.
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7 hours ago, Sky Full said:
This virus does seem to be easily tranmissable and therefore it could eventually spread to all parts of the globe and affect many millions of people. But has it affected you yet? I wonder if people are thinking twice about booking holidays in Italy, for example, or even other European countries which are also affected. Are you perhaps thinking of cancelling some future travel arrangements? How will the airports respond in Europe if many more thousands of people catch the virus? Would you wear a face mask in public given that they are pretty ineffective? There are inevitably reports of people stockpiling food which seems ridiculous now, but what if food supplies are affected because thousands of people have to take time off work? Personally I believe that pretty soon it will be in every part of the UK and there is nothing we can do about it except maintain personal hygiene and hope we don't catch it......
Personally, the EU need to close the whole entire airspace for at least two weeks. The ashcloud did it, this time it needs to be done.
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I got the Flu with Tonsillitis on top of it. Can't say it was nice, waking up with a pool of sweat and feeling absolutely destroyed and shaking to the core. This was 2013.
However this was a few months after ending up in hospital with something (8 blood tests later) and still no idea with just inflammation of the intestines showing up. Temperature +39.9*C with dosage of paracetamol, ibuprofen and aircon at +18*C. Had a cute Spanish nurse looking after me in good ole General del Muro.
13 hours ago, thundercrazy said:Is it possible I wonder to have both flu and coronavirus at the same time?
So I can honestly say, getting xyz on top of each-other is probably possible but no thank you. Never again...
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7.9*C and 144mm
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46 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:
“We will be tracing all individuals who used the Northern Line, any 541 Bus, or who visited Borough Market during daylight hours last week”I was on the Northern line a few times this week....
Along with the Chelsea Match, a few restaurants, bars, clubs and pubs.
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It's all my fault. I said it in August.
QuoteBut we are well overdue a wet and wild period.
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Just wow...
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The Aviation Update is an interesting one.
Deep low pressure (central pressure 936mb) centred just to the N of the British Isles, bringing SW gales to NW Europe. Sustained winds for the British Isles, northern France, Benelux, Denmark, northern and western Germany 25-30KT. Gusts 45-60KT inland. Peak winds 12-18Z across the UK and in the evening over N mainland Europe. The winds will ease during the early hours of Monday as the low transfers eastward to central Scandinavia. All airports in these areas are likely to be impacted by strong gusty winds conditions with possible local heavy rain an CB activity
WINDS >30 KNOTS
- EHAM 13-20Z sustained 210-220deg 30-32KT. Gusts 55-60KT.
- EBBR 15-19Z sustained 210 30KT. Gusts 45-50KT.
- EGLL 11-15Z mean sustained 27-28KT 220 deg. Gusts 40-50KT.
- EGKK 12-17Z mean sustained 27-30KT 220 deg. Gusts 40-50KT.
- EGLC 12-17Z mean sustained 26-27KT 210 deg. Gusts 35-40KT.
- LFPG 17-20Z mean sustained 26-27KT 210 deg. Gusts 35-42KT.
- EDDL 19-21Z mean sustained 26-28KT 210 deg. Gusts 35-45KT.
3000 FT WINDS AND WIND SHEAR >30 KNOTS
- EDDF: 210 30-35KT from 05Z, 190 40KT from 12Z, 190-200 55-60KT from 17Z, 200 65KT from 22Z. Shear >30Kt apart from 11-14Z.
- EGLL: 200-210 40-45KT 00-05Z becoming 60Kt from 06Z and 70 KT from 12Z. Becoming 230 deg 60 KT from 17Z, 240-250deg 50KT from 21Z. Shear >30KT throughout, 45-50KT around 13-15Z.
- LFPG: 200-210 30-35KT 00-03Z becoming 40KT by 06Z. 200 50-55KT from 09Z Becoming 210 deg 60 KT from 17Z, 230deg 60-66KT from 21Z. Shear >30KT from 04Z.
- EHAM: 200-210 40-50KT, 60KT from 12Z. 75KT from 18Z. Becoming 230deg 60KT from 21Z. Shear >30KT throughout, 45-50KT
Heathrow & Gatwick looks set to have the worst of the winds. With 65KT gusts between 0915/0918. Just shy of 75mph
LGW
TAF EGKK 081656Z 0818/0924 19010KT 9999 FEW030 TEMPO 0819/0821 19015G25KT BECMG 0821/0824 20018G28KT BECMG 0904/0907 21028G38KT TEMPO 0904/0915 7000 -RA BKN012 TEMPO 0907/0915 22032G48KT PROB30 TEMPO 0910/0915 22040G60KT 4000 RA BKN007 BECMG 0915/0918 24026G40KT TEMPO 0915/0918 3000 +SHRA BKN014CB PROB30 TEMPO 0915/0918 24035G65KT BECMG 0918/0921 25018G30KT PROB40 TEMPO 0918/0924 3000 +SHRA BKN020CB PROB30 TEMPO 0921/0924 25025G45KT=LHR
TAF EGLL 081659Z 0818/0924 20010KT 9999 FEW025 PROB40 TEMPO 0818/0821 19015G25KT BECMG 0821/0824 19020G30KT TEMPO 0902/0909 7000 -RA BKN012 BECMG 0906/0909 20025G42KT TEMPO 0909/0918 21030G55KT TEMPO 0909/0915 4000 RA BKN009 TEMPO 0915/0924 3000 +SHRA BKN014CB PROB30 TEMPO 0915/0919 23035G65KT BECMG 0919/0922 24020G35KT=Yeah in an airplane tomorrow? It's a no from me...
A lot of people seem to be downplaying this storm here in London. But I guess the amber warning is warranted as it effects the greatest population areas.
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About two weeks ago I had a Viral Infection, about the same dates when the Corona-virus would have been landing in the UK. I work in an international setting where I would interact with a lot of people travelling. I haven't had it that bad since 2014, so how does anyone know that they haven't had it and gotten over it? It took me roughly 14 days to get rid of it, and I am still feeling it a little bit now.
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15 minutes ago, John90 said:
There's some interesting articles and videos about supercells associated with "cold core" lows in the USA. I wonder if this is something similar. Tornado's often occur in the UK during autumn/winter but usually associated with squalls. This event seems weird as it was quite an isolated "storm" I put storm in quotations because their didn't appear to be any lightning.
I am very intrigued as there's a lot of energy involved here. Last Saturday was biblical rainfall, same on Sunday then this cell.
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4 hours ago, Superstormuk said:
Regarding the tornado in Chertsey, I live in Virginia Water (about 4 miles away) and I happened to be getting the train at the time it touched down. I could see lots of rotation, and the whole event looked more like a summer storm rather than one this time of year.
It's been a crazy day of weather down here.
Rather odd how you can get a Supercell in the winter and not much in the Summer.
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Very interesting over at the WPC Extended Forecast Discussion. Models are struggling somewhat post Day 4, as I said last night - taking anything post 96 hours with the finest pinch of salt.
QuoteThe medium range period begins with a vigorous shortwave/surface low exiting the Northeast, with various shortwaves rotating through broad troughing across the remainder of the CONUS. For Day 3-4 (Mon-Tues), models overall show very good agreement and thus a majority deterministic model blend sufficed, between the 18z/Nov 21 GFS, the 12z/Nov 21 ECMWF, and the 12z/Nov 21 UKMET. Beyond this, one of the biggest forecast concerns continues to be regarding the evolution of a shortwave as it digs southward through the Western U.S. and ejects into the Central U.S. by day 4. Models continue to struggle with respect to both timing and intensity of this system, which looks to spin up a surface low in the south-central Plains on Tuesday, and track it quickly towards the Northeast by Wednesday/Thursday.
The GFS has been very consistent in deepening this surface low early on as it tracks through the Midwest, while the ECMWF shows much more run-to-run variability ranging from a solution close to that of the GFS to maintaining a rather weak wave through the Midwest and not showing much intensification until the low reaches the Northeast on Wednesday. The CMC also continues to exhibit high variability with each new model run and the latest run barely shows a shortwave at all and is so widely different from any other model solution and the ensemble means that it was not considered. Timing of this system also remains in question with the GFS on the faster side of the guidance envelope and the ECMWF/UKMET on the slower side. In addition, scatter plots of various ensemble member surface lows shows better clustering towards the slightly faster GFS. Based on this, and given the uncertainty remaining with this system beyond day 5, a blend of the ensemble means (ECENS/GEFS) was preferred which results in a moderately intense storm and a slightly faster track much closer to that of the GFS.
This also maintains very good continuity with the previous WPC forecast. Meanwhile, another vigorous shortwave follows on the heels of this first one reaching the West coast by late Tuesday. Models agree that this wave should become quite amplified by mid to late next week, with some solutions wanting to close off an upper low somewhere along the Southwest coast. Run-to-run variability in the deterministic models, both with respect to timing and closed low vs amplified troughing, remains high with this system and thus more of the better clustered ensemble means was used in the blend for days 6-7.
Reference:
WPC's Extended Forecast Discussion
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOVAnything after this period I think should be looked at, but not through rose tinted glasses. Appears to be some variability regarding the Alaskan ridge and the cutoff low which assists the building of a ridge to our west. Either way, it's an interesting period for sure.
The next 96 hours look relatively straightforward, but with the prime concern the evolution of the shortwave into the Central US. It's pretty obvious that
Bank this chart of a Northern Hemispheric disruption at it's finest and see what the outcome is next Friday.
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I have been watching this Model Output Discussion the last few weeks, and have seen a lot of back and fourth's with the outputs. I am a firm believer that November-December 2010 was not a one off as we go forward in time. The cold periods we had after this 100 year event really did support that one day we might see something similar, and without a doubt I think most people expect that this is the case, of which I am one of them.
Interestingly I just had a read through this, and pre that big cold spell was a lot of flooding. Which is not too dissimilar to the pattern we have had recently.
Here's a chart for tomorrow night across the Nern Hemisphere.
I note there are some minor differences between the two charts, but it's eerily similar (Although I'll stand corrected) but from the untrained eye - a weaker vortex, similar high pressure cell over Russia with zonality over the UK.
The key difference for me is those Alaskan heights, buckling the jet and sending energy into Greenland. Something we don't really see until the 96th hour. The pattern this November is a bit flatter, but I think there will be a way synoptically that we will get a Greenland High.
ECM is onto something that the GFS isn't. I can't understand why the struggle after 4-5 days.
Anyway I look for the next couple of days, the building of heights into Greenland and the retrogression of the high across that area with WAA into Greenland, currently showing across the GFS, ECMWF and CFS models.
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Novel Coronavirus – China
in Space, Science & nature
Posted
Not a huge increase in numbers today. But does anyone else thing these numbers are highly skewed. I am sure that there are many cases, but just aren't being tested or have thought they had it.