Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?

Robbie Garrett

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    2,990

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    1

 Content Type 

Posts posted by Robbie Garrett

    Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    I am most certainly not writing off Dec, but i am saying alarm bells are beginning to ring that the last third of Nov might go zonal.

    There's one thing that strikes me on the latest MO updates, and they've put one interesting caveat on it.

    "Through the second half of November and into December, confidence remains low."

    Either way, interesting pattern building next week.  The jet seems to be pivoting under the high over Europe, and surely that's what you want?

    image.thumb.png.9022994d3c9f7b7b23daf6323a69f287.png

     

    image.thumb.png.574f884457d127643ceceff8e3f1ba6f.png

     

    Be interested to see if the models can get to grips with that Afghan/Euro High.

    • Like 5

    Model Output Discussion - early October

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    14 minutes ago, Catacol said:

    Much to ponder in our global weather at present. Anyone with knowledge of hurricane formation got information on how a hurricane can be sustained over such relatively cool SSTs in the atlantic?

    I believe this is the discussion from NOAA/NHC.

    "It is likely that cold upper-level temperatures have allowed the cyclone to maintain deep convection and lead to the formation of a warm core, while Pablo continued strengthening over cool water temperatures where tropical cyclones normally weaken. Still, the current SSTs underneath Pablo are so far below those usually needed for tropical development, that Pablo must be incredibly efficient at extracting heat from the ocean surface below (as well as low-level surrounding air, probably)."

    Quote

    000 WTNT43 KNHC 272032 TCDAT3 Hurricane Pablo Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182019 500 PM AST Sun Oct 27 2019

    Pablo continues to have a remarkably impressive appearance for a tropical cyclone over such cold waters. The hurricane's eye remains evident in most satellite imagery channels, with a solid ring of cloud tops colder than 50C surrounding it. This maintenance of the deep convection can be attributed to an environment of very cold temperatures aloft, which can allow for the hurricane to remain intact over waters colder than those typically observed. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB remains unchanged from 6 hours ago, while the objective estimates from UW-CIMSS have increased slightly. The initial advisory intensity has been increased to 70 kt, and this could be a little conservative.

    There are strong low-level easterlies associated with a baroclinic zone and frontal boundary located a couple hundred miles north of Pablo. The hurricane is expected to begin interacting with this zone soon, which combined with even cooler waters should make the cyclone lose its tropical characteristics within the next 24 hours. The system is then expected to become absorbed by the circulation of a much larger low as it approaches from the west in a couple of days.

    The initial motion is now 020/20 kt. There is significant spread in the model guidance beyond 24 hours, as the ECMWF and UKMET turn the post-tropical cyclone to the northeast, while the remainder of the guidance turns it northwest. The official forecast follows the majority of the guidance and the previous forecast. In this scenario, Pablo is expected to turn northward and slow its forward motion tonight as it approaches the frontal zone. Then, a turn toward the northwest on Monday is expected as the larger low to its west begins to steer the cyclone. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 44.7N 17.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 46.5N 16.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 47.7N 17.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 29/0600Z 49.0N 18.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$

    Forecaster Latto

     

    • Like 4

    Storms and Convective discussion - 28th July 2019 onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, Reefseeker said:

    Had it right overhead here in Surbiton, torrential downpours and thunder crackling through the sky every few minutes for about 10 minutes as the storm passed through. A rumble or two since then, with more as I type, but it's moved fairly rapidly to the east of us now. I felt sorry for those on the school run, really not good for them at all.

     

    7 minutes ago, PurpleLED said:

    I'd almost say this storm appears to have some rotation but I'm not too sure and can't take a time-lapse 

    Yes I saw a bit of rotation, I wonder if Reefseeker saw the same?

    Hurricane Dorian

    in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Iceberg said:

    Recon have just done their first pass of the day. 

    Pressure now sub 970mb surface of 95it's and flight winds of 98kts.

     

    1 hour ago, Iceberg said:

    Second noaa plane currently just going in. Already flight winds of 99kts at 986mb. 

    AD358FBF-517D-48BC-830D-82ADAC33933D.png

    As a qualified pilot, that's some roller coaster. Imagine having to do it multiple times per day - presumably they get used to it.  

    Wouldn't want to sit in the back of that aircraft!

    • Like 1

    The changing daylight hours thread

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    21 minutes ago, Frost HoIIow said:

    Getting to the point now where sunrises aren't ridiculously early. Certainly the nights drawing in more quickly too. I'm getting the Autumn vibe although September tends to be a very boring month with little excitement. 2000 was pretty wet & Atlantic dominated but that was an ominous sign to what turned out to be the wettest Autumn on record. It rained every single day here from mid September until mid December - a record unmatched here since then. However the final part of December brought snow & a decent cold spell with the coldest temps for 5 years. Despite widespread floods it was meteorologically speaking an interesting latter part of the year.

    I've been doing some nights (finishing at 4am) and the daylight is really drawing to a close.   But I seem to remember how quick winter went, and it was soon June 21st.  This winter will probably not be any different, although I suspect we might be in for something more seasonable Nov-Jan, and I don't mean snow. But we are well overdue a wet and wild period.

    • Like 1
×
×
  • Create New...