Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?

Robbie Garrett

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    2,990

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    1

 Content Type 

Posts posted by Robbie Garrett

    Model output discussion - here comes the beast!

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Just now, high ground birmingham said:

    Yes I agree with this assessment. Most likely for it to stay south.

    The time that I recall such a low moving up north through the UK was February 2005 but that was quite a disappointing event for many with constant falling snow but no settling

    I am trying to re-collect a similar situation in April 2012. The low that came up from France and dumped 48 hours rainfall on the South.  I think that was it?

    • Like 1

    Model output discussion - here comes the beast!

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, Sawel said:

    2010 will be a tough act to beat for a lot of people. Firstly (IMBY) we had 7-8 inches from a front coming in from the North Sea on the Sunday, then another 4 days after this with heavy convective snow which dumped another 8-9 inches. However, it's definitely looking like a very significant spell for many!

    No forgetting fading light and temperatures.  But in terms of snowfall, it might beat 2nd Feb 2009 for dumping snow?  Either way as people have said, this is going to be a huge event.

    Model output discussion - here comes the beast!

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, Nick F said:

    All getting rather complex and messy on the 18z GFS after mid-week. The upper trough / low over the Baltic Sea on Tuesday continues westward over the North Sea by early Thursday and leads to area(s) of low pressure to form ahead of it across the UK. The upper low loiters over the UK for rest of the week and into the following weekend, with surface lows rotating around it. Still cold enough air wrapping around the low pressure system for snow at lower levels. 

    However, the upper troughing over Europe and associated 500mb lows spinning west on the northern flank between ridge and trough may not be well handled by the models for now, certainly there are differences between the models from mid-week, GFS seems to be on its own on bringing a deep 500mb low west over N Sea mid-week, though 12z EC does  lower heights from the east later in the week, with a surface low dropping SW over northern and western UK.

    It's been a very long time since I model watched.  But does the GFS still have a westerly bias?  It's always defaulting to Zonal in fantasy island.

    Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Been ages since I've posted a detailed thought on the model process. Based on the 06z ensemble, I wouldn't trust anything past the 3rd-5th of Dec.  It's all over the place, so looking past the 5th is pointless.

     

    GEFS Ensembles Chart

     

    The key timeframe is 120hrs onwards, to see how much warmth from the Gulf gets pushed up over Greenland.  Once we have that in place, potential Wed-Thursday next week onwards for some low lying levels.  IMHO, the zonal default as per usual post that Greenland High forming is no mans land. Let's wait and see. ^ It's volatile.

    • Thanks 1

    Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 8th July onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Harry said:

    It's orientation makes you think that but if you run the loop it's all moving pretty much  due N, maybe a fraction NNE 

    Correct, current SIGMET says moving North at 15knots (so 17mph in a 360* direction or so) from present position. 

    Quote

    EGTT SIGMET 08 VALID 182200/190200 EGRR- EGTT LONDON FIR EMBD TS FCST S OF LINE N5232 W00530 - N5233 E00251 TOP FL390 MOV N 15KT NC=

×
×
  • Create New...