[Model output discussions pm 31/12/15]

Interesting set-up probably going to develop late-mid month. 240hrs out the ECMWF and GFS are similar but not carbon copies.   FI looks to move a cold pool of Scandinavia post 240hrs,  first signs of a change to the norm?  That Jet Stream is really strong throughout January, no surprise for a rinse repeat of Oct-Dec 2015 throughout the majority of January.   Where's that Pesky Azores High?

 

[C.E.T. forecasts for December 2015 (start of 2015-16 competition year)]

Going all out...

 

-0.7 C

[August 2015 CET forecasts]

16.9c

[Storm & Convective Discussion - 02/07/15 Onward - Heat & Plumes]

Unfortunately am too young to recall the dates of mental MCS' in the 90s and early 00s. Something like 1st August 1999, a massive 4 hour MCS turned fear to fascination. That night will forever stay with me.

 

It would be pretty amazing if we get one of those this Summer I remember them well!!!

[Storm & Convective Discussion - 02/07/15 Onward - Heat & Plumes]

Can anyone actually remember seeing such a widespread area of storms hitting the UK? Still ongoing for sure big time.

 

Maybe late 1990s, early 2000's - this still doesn't compare to those MCS imports we used to get. They lasted all night long, constant lightning and booming thunder. These are all single cells, and not that severe in nature.

[Storm & Convective Discussion - 02/07/15 Onward - Heat & Plumes]

Well the cell that was over Mitcham/Wimbledon exploded 5-10 minutes ago, I could hear people in the area watching just saying oh wow. It really kicked off before heading into North London.

whats causing all the big fun over London? The fronts dont seem close to there so whats causing all that instability? I guess it brings hope to everyone that something can pop up for us still waiting

 

 

Last cell just passing by to my west...give it another 10 minutes or so then off to bed....what a cracking night

[Storm & Convective Discussion - 02/07/15 Onward - Heat & Plumes]

Posted by someone from BBC south. This is the aftermath of Bournemouth...

 

[Storm & Convective Discussion - 02/07/15 Onward - Heat & Plumes]

Taken with the GoPro as everything kicked off..

 

 

Strike in South London

 

 

Some Inter-cloud stuff as the cell passed overhead.

 

 

and a tower block (presumably Brixton/Streatham) gets a direct hit

 

[Storm & Convective Discussion - 02/07/15 Onward - Heat & Plumes]

Someone just took this that I follow on Instagram.

 

[Storm & Convective Discussion - 02/07/15 Onward - Heat & Plumes]

Almost constant lightning here in Bexleyheath, thunder is quite distant though.

 

 

Desperately hoping my new camcorder is picking this up ok...lightning is insane but the quality on the screen is a bit misty

 

 

Between cells now...one to my west over London is kicking out amazing bolts every 2-3 seconds now literally

 

Told you east of Heathrow.    I've been filming in night mode with the GoPro 4K Black Edition, can't wait to see what the results show.   #storm#thunder and "The Lightning" All now trending across the UK.

[Storm & Convective Discussion - 02/07/15 Onward - Heat & Plumes]

Insane CGs raining down over Croydon now, wow, camera rolling

There's 3 disctint cells as the moment. One over West London, one over Bromley/Dartford way, and one north east of Romford.  One just forming over Mitcham now as I type.

[Storm & Convective Discussion - 02/07/15 Onward - Heat & Plumes]

Thunder and lighting to my north, SE and SW. Don't know where to look!!

 

 

Strangely the first cell that went over here that produced a few flashes and rumbles produced very little rain despite radar showing reds over my house, must be evaporating a lot?

 

I came in 15 minutes ago, had a massive IC lightning and heavy rain.  Now lots of flashes to the south and south east of SE17 (Elephant & Castle) - all of this is home grown, so the cap is well and truly broken.   I've always said there's something magical when this setup is perfect, the south downs and London produce something special.

[Storm & Convective Discussion - 02/07/15 Onward - Heat & Plumes]

Just had a look at what the MetOffice has put on its rainfall radar forecast map. Appears to be somethimg big moving north east between 2300 and 0100am through London.

What's everyones thoughts??

[Storm & Convective Discussion - 02/07/15 Onward - Heat & Plumes]

I seem to remember that after a late evening and long hot day - London provides a heat island affect that nowhere else can match in the UK,  7 times out of 10 it's exploded storms normally drifting over from the South,  the south downs also gets things going.   You just have to fly along the South Downs in an airplane or depart London Gatwick and you'll realise how turbulent that area is.   I guess it's not exact science but theoretically it's plausible that some sort of acts are at work there that help break the CAP on a regular basis. 

 

Looking at the TAF's I'd hazard a guess anything east of Heathrow is where the CAP will be broken tonight.  The storms being more severe the further east you go.

 

The AIRMET also says quite a sea-breeze going on in the SE.

 

0000085600 628 FAUK34 EGRR 030430 AIRMET AREA FORECAST, SOUTHEAST ENGLAND, VALID JUL 03/0600Z TO 03/1500Z. MET-SITUATION: AT 06Z, A LIGHT TO MOD STABLE ENE FLOW AFFECTS THE REGION. STRONG WIND WRNG: ISOL SEA COT, MAINLY FM 12Z, 20-25KT GUSTS.

 

 

 

Heathrow 30% chance -

 

EGLL 030453Z 0306/0412 VRB04KT CAVOK BECMG 0311/0314 09010KT PROB30 TEMPO 0321/0401 09015G25KT 5000 +SHRA TSRA BECMG 0403/0406 24010KT PROB30 TEMPO 0404/0406 9000 BKN012

 

Temporary
from 03 at 21 UTC to 04 at 01 UTC Wind 15 kt from the East with gusts up to 25 kt Visibility: 5000 m heavy rain showers, thunderstorm, rain

 

Gatwick 40% chance - 

 

EGKK 030503Z 0306/0412 VRB04KT 9999 FEW030 BECMG 0312/0315 09010KT PROB40 TEMPO 0320/0324 08015G25KT 3000 +SHRA TSRA BECMG 0403/0406 23010KT PROB30 TEMPO 0405/0408 8000 BKN010

 

 

Temporary
from 03 at 20 UTC to 03 at 24 UTC Wind 15 kt from the East with gusts up to 25 kt Visibility: 3000 m heavy rain showers, thunderstorm, rain

[Storm & Convective Discussion - SPANISH PLUME - 30/06/15 onwards]

Well the Heathrow TAF forecast says Thunderstorms for 8am to 12pm tomorrow, at 4000ft.  I'd say it's probably going to be a Kent/London Clipper with the majority staying out over the Channel.  Very tired but what's the wind direction doing, I was flying earlier and it was heading from the east.

 

PROB30 TEMPO 0207/0211 6000 TSRA SCT010 BKN040CB

 

This is mesoscale convective complex.

 

 

Man that storm in biscay on cam is brutal!
Some cracking CG's on that mothership what actually appears to be heading directly towards London !

 

 

Yup turning into a great night for some

[Southeast England & East Anglia, Weather Chat...July 1st 2015...]

So is this an exact science and could 38.5*C have been toppled today if it wasn't for the cloud?  Looking at the METAR's for Heathrow it toppled by 4*C before rising again. If that 4*C drop didn't happen would 36.7*C have become 40.7*C?

 

EGLL 011020Z 15016KT CAVOK 34/13 Q1011 NOSIG

EGLL 011050Z 17015KT CAVOK 32/12 Q1011 NOSIG

EGLL 011120Z 16010KT CAVOK 30/14 Q1011

[Southeast England & East Anglia - Weather Chat >> 1st March Onwards]

Just about to say this.. That cloud down south is now breaking up so I don't really see it as a threat now.. 

 

32 before 12pm for the uk is astonishing.. I wonder when we will next see this.. 

 

 

29c @ 9am Heathrow.Are we heading for the record books today?

 

30°c at 0950 Local

32°c at 1050 Local

34°c at 1150 Local

35°c at 1250 Local

36°c at 1350 Local

37°c at 1450 Local

 

 

 

EGLL 100750Z 07003KT 5000 HZ FEW070 27/16 Q1016 NOSIG

EGLL 100850Z 16003KT 9000 FEW070 30/16 Q1017 NOSIG

EGLL 100950Z 04002KT CAVOK 32/15 Q1016 NOSIG

EGLL 101020Z 16004KT 120V210 CAVOK 32/14 Q1016 NOSIG

EGLL 101050Z 14005KT 100V310 CAVOK 34/14 Q1016 NOSIG

EGLL 101150Z 13010KT 100V160 CAVOK 35/14 Q1015 NOSIG

EGLL 101250Z 14009KT 050V190 CAVOK 36/10 Q1015 NOSIG

EGLL 101350Z 20012KT CAVOK 37/06 Q1015 NOSIG

[Storm & Convective Discussion - SPANISH PLUME - 30/06/15 onwards]

[Model Output Discussion - 1st June 2015 12z--------->]

True the sun is stronger but many things came together on August 10th that don't necessarily apply in this situation. For example it's thought the presence of very dry subsided air not far aloft which reached the surface following entrainment owing to boundary layer turbulence may have provided some additional subsidence warming.

That one sentence was amazing. Quite technical, I seem to remember the wind completely changing direction during the day. It was very hot that's for sure, and I had a play-school trip to Kew Gardens that day ahha!

[Model Output Discussion - 1st June 2015 12z--------->]

Thursday 2nd July/Friday 3rd July - High between 23-37°C.  Saturday, Sunday and Monday could hit 39°c  (I doubt it but the models have it somewhere in between at the moment, the sun is a lot stronger than 10th August that's for sure)

 

I wonder if the record could be broken?

[First 30C - where and when?]

July 1st - 34*C - Heathrow/Kew Gardens and St James Park

[July 2015 CET forecasts]

20.1*C

[Storm & Convective Discussion - 01/03/15 onwards]

Some nice convective skies over Heathrow today, no thunder heard yet though.

20150519_133616.jpg20150519_133731.jpg20150519_133906.jpg20150519_134001.jpg

 

I am your work neighbour it seems.

[Storm & Convective Discussion - 01/03/15 onwards]

YAHOO BROKEN MY DUCK! Awesome double fork just over S London :yahoo:

Same. Right, slow start this year. Lets hope for a big one.

[Model Output Discussion 1200 hrs 15/11/14]

Almost 4 years to the day the models picked up on the dramatic changes, they again pick up on all the signals for another possible early and cold start. Could this be a rinse/repeat or better?

 

2014 15th 12z run

 

 

2010 15th 12z Run

 

 

 

Oh and guess what else it did?

 

 

The same as todays.  Defaulted to Atlantic...

 

 

 

 

But Santa Clause had other ideas that year.