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Robbie Garrett

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Posts posted by Robbie Garrett

    Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 8th July onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    On 14/07/2017 at 16:15, Sparkiee storm said:

    Oh okay and yeah that's understandable, must be quite the thrill though 

    I can't say it's a thrill. I hate roller-coasters, and you get that on an airplane in moderate to severe turbulence.  But technology is improving to completely avoid most turbulence.  It's the little CB's surrounding TSRA that give airplanes flying near Thunderstorms the bumps and lumps as you'd never want to fly in them.   Although I've met one Captain that ended up inside a small one in a 747, fully loaded weight and power to idle - was climbing at +500fpm (500 feet per minute).

    • Like 3

    Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 8th July onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    Just now, Sparkiee storm said:

    Don't planes flying around storm cloud, if they are big enough? 

    Well if it doesn't show on radar as a huge red/purple blob you can go through the clouds. CB's are flown through all the time in jet's, although the more mature and dissipating ones are avoided.  It can be pretty bumpy flying near Thunderstorms due to the atmospheric conditions.

     

    • Like 6

    Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 8th July onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    3 hours ago, Harry said:

    Not allowing myself to carried away just yet - 5 days is a bit a large window for variation for me.

    Encouraged though by the consistency over the past couple of days - not very much in the way of variation between model runs, unlike previous plume periods this year where 00z to 06z to 12z to 18z have looked substantially different. 

    The wind charts show clearly the thundery low developing over NW Spain as a cut off low Monday evening, drifting into the BoB before arriving across our shores around 21z-00z Tuesday/Wednesday. What will be interesting is what that fires across Spain/France/BoB as this will undoubtedly have a big impact on UK fortunes. The veering winds around the low will also help negate reliance on the jet (which at this time is non-existent across W Europe).

    I am hopeful we will end up with something like we experienced 3/4 July :D

     

     

    3 July 2015.png

    Hoping for a BIG MCS :D imported and ready to crack.

    • Like 1

    Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 31st May 2017 onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted · Edited by Robbie Garrett

    42 minutes ago, tomp456 said:

    Reminds me of a June day (can't remember precisely the day) either in 2011 or 2012, all the parameters for storms were out of control, unfortunately cap was strong, high cloud rolled in, ruined temperature, so we got nothing. 

    Next day similar set up, less cap, lower parameters, and we got a storm

     

     

    This was the date (27th Jun 2011), pretty warm day that started off as being 30*C at 8am. CAPE was like something seen in the states and the front stalled, next day it was cloudy and then this came bowling through.

    2rffxfn.jpg

     

     

    • Like 1

    Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 31st May 2017 onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    Quote

     

    Forecast Summary

    Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days

    UK Outlook for Thursday 8 Jun 2017 to Saturday 17 Jun 2017:

    Thursday and Friday will be mostly cloudy, with showers or longer spells of rain spreading in from the southwest. The rain could be occasionally heavy, particularly in the south, with an increased risk of thundery downpours here, but it will become brighter in the west later. Temperatures will widely be above average, with hot, humid weather possible in the south and southeast where it may feel humid. Unsettled weather is likely to continue as we head into the weekend and beyond, with further spells of rain or scattered showers. These will tend to be most frequent in the west and it may be very windy here too, with the risk of gales in places. Temperatures will continue to be above average, perhaps becoming very warm at times.

    UK Outlook for Sunday 18 Jun 2017 to Sunday 2 Jul 2017:

    For mid June, confidence is very low, however the most likely scenario is for more spells of wet and windy weather in the northwest, with somewhat more settled and warmer conditions further south and east. There is the possibility of some heavy and thundery showers at times though, particularly in the southeast. Temperatures are most likely to be above average, and perhaps very warm or hot at times in the south, but there is the possibility that the temperatures may begin to trend down later in the period.

    Updated: 01:20 on Sat 3 Jun 2017 BST

     

    Sounds good :)

    • Like 1

    Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 31st May 2017 onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted · Edited by Robbie Garrett

    5 minutes ago, Harry said:

    Fingers crossed!! If we can get the atmospheric conditions right, seems that it could be rife for some highly electrified storms. Let's just hope this isn't now going to be a westerly Atlantic dominated drab fest.

    What's the prognosis, I haven't really looked?  I seem to remember a Classic British summer being exactly how it is now.  Thundery, Thundery and warm and moist!

    • Like 1

    Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 31st May 2017 onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    4 hours ago, Harry said:

    OMG. Just had a downburst of some sort. Brief total white out (about 30 seconds), leaves flying around, large hail and frequent CGs. Incredible.

    Definitely falls under the heading of severe!!!

     

    4 hours ago, Harry said:

    Still raining but clearing through now thunder/lightning still ongoing. Gorgeous anvil visible on the back side.

    Anyone on the receiving end do be prepared for severe thunderstorm conditions.

    Going to be a good year I reckon. 1997-esque!

    • Like 1

    Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 31st May 2017 onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Harry said:

    Cloud amounts already seem to be on the increase here. This will not help too much which insolation which, aside from any trough that develops, could be a key player in assisting with the initiation of storms.

    I agree with @Supacell (which probably means I've just lost the election, lol), in that NMM is opting for fairly decent CAPE actually (around 1,200 - 1,500 J/Kg) and keeping decent MUCAPE (again, in excess of 1,000 J/Kg) hanging around until around 23:00.

    While it is unpopular, I consider the NMM to be one of the most reliable at very short range (not to say that it's always accurate, because clearly it is not).

    Just flew in from Austin, TX.  19c at 3000ft and a little lumpy with tops up to 6-7000ft with bases at 5000ft+

    • Like 2

    Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 27th Feb onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    26 minutes ago, Harry said:

    Still haven't got round to sorting out some of my footage from Sunday's MCS.

    In addition to the great footage posted on here, I've been enjoying some of the footage from the SW's pasting on Saturday.

    Watch this as one example...

     

     

    11 minutes ago, Harry said:

    Can't edit my last post, but for those curious about +CGs, see 3:18 and especially 6:24 - note the intensity of the flash and explosive peel like thunder (incidentally setting an alarm off before the thunder even hits)

    Oh wow,  that but constant thunder during the late 90s in Central London!  Memories last a lifetime.

    • Like 1

    Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 27th Feb onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Harry said:

    From my memory as a kid with no weather knowledge whatsoever, MCS did seem to occur almost on an annual basis. I also recall being under them, rather than on the periphery which seems more common today.

    I remember an event in August 1997 (I think) which to me then was terrifying and handful of others really stand out.

    Past few years have tended to be multi-cell events (ie lots of mid level cells coalescing) rather than what I saw last night.

    Lets hope for more of the same this year :D

    Feels very warm and humid here now that I'm back from the coast. Would be greedy of me to fancy a few more rumbles this evening, although the extensive cloud cover may not be conducive. 

    The stuff we had out over on that French webcam is what I remember from the late 90s?  Constant lightning and booming thunder. I just can't understand why they don't make the channel anymore, or they drift towards Kent.  I remember them coming straight from the south, unless what we need is a North North westerly breakdown from the South South East unlike yesterday which was from the South South west heading North North east.

     

     

    Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 27th Feb onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

     

    6 hours ago, James1979 said:

    Really? I've seen a few things on the internet recently saying similar and even (non weather nut friends and family are noticing)but nothing official, I'd be really interested to see that. 

    Bizarre last night as although the action was mainly Kent/channel way we got a few strikes around here about 1 every 5-10 mins in the end - just as I went to bed the closest lightning strike I've ever experienced hit somewhere near by. A flash and massive explosion at the exact same time had me 6 feet in the air and out of bed- i was sure the house had been hit!! Kind of makes up for not seeing the main action but very scary. Just wish I'd managed to actually see/film the bolt!

     

    4 hours ago, Luke Best said:

    @Robbie Garrett

    @James1979

    Is this the document you're after?

    http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/j.1477-8696.1998.tb06352.x/pdf

    That will be the one :) interesting how the number isn't what it was in the 90's @Harry knows :)

    • Like 1

    Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 27th Feb onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted · Edited by Robbie Garrett

    23 minutes ago, Callie said:

    Yep!!!

    IMG_7693.PNG

    That's on a SFD departure from 08R at LGW. It then joins the airway either from BOGNA or SFD to UL612.  From my knowledge the routing it's took clearly avoids the convection.  I'm not ATPL yet but in my current job, I'm told just avoid the red radar returns and hope behind the yellows and greens isn't a bigger red blob alais Air France 447. So the Flight crew tell me..

    • Like 1
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