AutumnMists
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What I just don't want is patchy coverings where the whole area is just a mixture of green and white!
Although the moors look very pleasing for a certain covering.
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Hopefully snow will miss me, as it will only be a couple of CM.
Looks like between a slight dusting - 5cm for most anyway.
I like snow depths like that though ... not too mad but not rubbish
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I bit of a clearer story on Granada weather tonight.
NW England, rather unusually, seems to be the most favoured region for snow outside of Scotland/NI.
Snow showers (no real sign of prongoled snow) affects the western parts of the NW increasingly in the afternoon, gradually extending to East and most areas of the NW by the evening. Very pleasing! Disagrees with BBC weather tonight. Anyway ... most of the NW looking likely to have a nice sweet little full day of snow on Sunday ... beautiful.
Perhaps the only possible negatives are the temperatures ... at the moment it does look as though they will be just about cold enough for snow but there could be some rain and sleet instead of snow for some.
(Saturday starts with rain for all).
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Sounds like fun to me. Can't wait to drive. First stop...that place.
hehee, I'm still too young for driving too ....
If your ever going to go up there ... watch out for a painful climbing of 300m in around 1.5 miles!
Quite a unique place though is Saddleworth Moor.
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Your area is very frost-prone. Must of been absolutely stunning waking up to frost, then seeing temperatures climb to 20C by mid-afternoon.
It wasn't as easy as it sounds though ... I had to walk up onto the moors 520m a.s.l to find frosts.
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Hmm, you'll probably find that having regional specific rainfall %'s as shown in the chart shown above have many advantages over that which just shows nationwide totals as per the CFS.
You can find it on the NW Extra full sub for a tenner a month mate.
Cheers ... learning a lot more from these forums!
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Does anyone have the stats for April 2011 please?
http://www.tutiempo.net/en/Climate/Manchester_Airport/04-2011/33340.htm
Above shows that it rained once from 16-30th with very pleasant temperatures - I remember in April 2011 also being able to have early morning walks on the moors with frosts on the ground regularly due to night lows being reasonably low
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I wasn't looking at the CFS, but I do like that model
Check that for rain.
May is one of my favourite months of the year. That best not verify.
Cheers for the model pal - never come across that one before. Would like to see a bit of a change compared to recently; a not so good May (as the model you posted suggests) I suppose possibly gives a chance of a better July and August.
The only thing I don't like about a model like the one you posted (in terms of rainfall) is that if we were to have a month with well below rainfall or well above rainfall - it is likely it would affect a good proportion of the UK although the model appears to show areas of well above average, average and some below average.
Anyway, my understanding of models isn't so good at all - and i'm sure what I am saying isn't correct hehe
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A very warm May?
Check out the latest long range charts. If these are correct, it'll be a very wet, cool, cloudy May!
Looked on CFS. Still a long way off though
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Me neither but the one that seems to be brought up quite a bit on here is 2005.
I do believe early talks are going for a very warm May (yet another early start to Summer like the last two ... let's hope this doesn't mean Autumn arriving in August).
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Till a few patches on the moors (490m asl).
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Indeed, I'm already looking towards the summer now nevermind spring.
Hoping a nice, warm and sunny one this year as it's been long overdue.
When would you say was the last decent Summer? 2006?
I can't really remember a good one for quite a while
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So I suppose it's now looking likely that I won't seeing any more lying snow for at least another 12 months since I last had some back in December?
Pathetic.
There is always the chance of it falling in November (11 months of no lying snow).
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Reference the April 2008 Northerly
http://www.wetterzen...n/fsreaeur.html (can't seem to copy and paste these charts) and go to 6th April 2008 - looking at the 850 temp profiles then it seems similar - with the -10 850 line down to Northern England and the -5 line down to the South Coast - and remember this delivered lowland lying snow including Liverpool in April - as I said in my previous post if April 2008 delivered, the coming set up should certainly deliver something providing we get the preciptiation - even though this is a toppler it is quite a potent one so fingers crossed. If we get the snow, it should lay around for longer than April 2008 as the sun was of course stonger then - hence most of the snow here melted by lunchtime.
Luke
Thanks very much for the information. I would have thought this weekend will be just about comparable to April 8th 2008 ... with at best an almost full day snow cover on Sunday as apposed to half a day.
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Hi Luke and welcome to the Forum
Reference weekend everything says we should see snow over the weekend
Uppers are cold enough,DP are low enought,temps will drop rapidly during shower,s
We just need the PPN
C.S
Met going for snow for me on Sunday night (surprisingly).
Just my luck! I knew any snow wouldn't last that long ... but I didn't know it won't even be awake for it!
Anyway still plenty of time for change
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wouldnt be surprised to see another half hearted northerly toppler 25-26 Feb, models kind of flirting with it, and who knows, another one 3-4 march
Just noticed that on the models too ... certainly something to ponder about. Some extreme uncertainty too it though!
One thing that does look perhaps a little more likely is the night time low's for the last week of February and the beginning of March until the model end; some decent agreement and consistency supports the prospects of seasonably cold nights of around freezing temperatures ... hopefully bringing some good frosts at least. Mixed readings for daytime temps
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Mehh - suppose in all this weekends possible cold snap will be nothing really. (Except perhaps an absolutely beautiful walk on Saddleworth Moor on Sunday morning which could have a slight dusting of snow or frost).
Anyway - heading into the weekend of the 24th and we could see some generally average or mild daytime temps, although in turn some seasonable night temps of around freezing. (GFS)
Still looking hopeful for the average/mild temps winding down a little for the turn of the month.
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I think it is just important to take in mind that the following do not necessarily affect what we will see in March;
- The fact we have had an overall mild winter
- The fact this week and next week have/look like they will be mild
- The fact March in the past few years since 2009 hasn't offered anything too cold
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I think what stands out so far from this winter is the complete lack of even a brief Arctic northerly, even some of the many previous mild winters had a couple of northerly shots.
This winter its been nigh on impossible to get any ridging into Greenland to even deliver a northerly toppler. If it hadn't have been for this exceptional recent two week cold spell for Europe then this winter IMO would have gone down as the worst since the 1988/89 horror show.
I remember many rubbish mild winters when living in the UK but I can't think of one in recent times which failed to produce one northerly toppler.
Wasn't 06/07 free of northenly
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after a very warm winter..its already becoming quite warm in the sunshine of mid feb and I wouldnt be surprised by mid march to see 16/18C..just the other day we saw almost 13C reached and we are supposed to be in the middle of the coldest month of the year lol...so my temps above will likely be reached..wouldnt be the first or the last march where we have seen very warm temps
No, you can't judge it like that - the famous widespread snow on 12-15th March 2006 came after a terrible wet and mild start to March.
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I typical calm late winter night for me tonight ... possible touch of frost if clear spells develop.
History shows that judging by the mild Winter we have had ... March looks hopeful for snow!
Although the CFS probability charts don't necessarily back this up.
The probability charts are also showing for a very warm May followed by the rest of Summer being generally close to average.
A long way off but I would settle with that
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Wasn't late March and early April very snowy and cold in Northern Ireland and Scotland in 2010? Indeed, it was, very much so, it was all over the news. I think Peter H is on a mission to wind us up!
Yeah, forgot about that one!
Although 2010 wasn't as widespread I don't think, here in NW England we got a slight covering on March 30th which quickly thawed (except for the hills).
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I advise you to take a look at the conditions of early March 93, 95, 96, 01, 04, 05, 06 and 10 all significantly below average with either northerlies or easterlies. For the northern half of the country the chances of snow in March are as equal as they are in the run up to christmas when the atlantic is much more likely to be in full force. Northerlies and easterlies are much more likely in March than November and December. Yes recent Marches have been preety mild and benign but we did see nationwide cold and snow in easter 2008.
I've known plenty of snow in April as when when easterlies and northerlies reach their yearly maxim - but by then it rarely lasts through the day - though there have been some notable exceptions late April 81 being a case in point.
I remember 10th-15th March 2006 being very famous for snow; typically many places experienced a full few days of typical heavy snow of 10-20cm.
Then of course, as you said ... Easter Sunday 2008 was very famous. I remember at the very end of March 2008 with double figure temperatures it looked clear that the snowfall was over for the Winter, but some heavy (albeit mostly wet) snow fell 6-8th April 2008 ... some large accumulations.
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Didn't happen here.
20th-25th March 2008 saw widespread snow throughout the UK. I really don't understand what your problem is
Winter 2011/12 - General Discussion
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
I just don't understand why someone could possibly rule out no more cold until December ... seems silly