AutumnMists
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It's been a neat little Autumn with the weather suiting all preferences ...
I almost forgot about that nice warm sunny start to September though as Millhouse pointed out
The Wintry flavour at the end of October/start of November seems all but forgotten now, although it was of course interesting at the time with some notable frost and wintry precipitation for some.
November itself will be remembered by some users as perhaps a bit of a let down, in the fact that the start of November brought many excitement given the seasonably cool models and high hopes of an early start to Winter ... this however never truly materialized as some were expecting.
Instead of a possible Wintry-like November, we instead got some rather non-meaningful temperatures covered with notable extremes of rainfall, very sadly causing damaging floods and this was coupled with typical Autumn Gales which perhaps overshadowed the overall look back of Autumn 2012 as being a bit of a poor one, no doubt that in 20 years time it certainly won't be one to remember like 2011 was.
Anyway, this thread is becoming ever so quiet now ... most posts seem to be happening.. mhmm ... elsewhere.
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In terms of the shorter range ... possibility of a frost tonight although for most temperatures will settle just above the freezing level for most, perhaps. ... blue skies for me tomorrow and Thursday (with the odd clouds tomorrow) ... coupled with ever lasting morning frosts and crisp cold afternoons with the ever so ineffective sunshine ... Bliss!
A definite frost on Wednesday night for most, clear spells looking very likely with temperatures for most dead around 0.
Any snow/sleet/rain arriving Friday night (But most probably Saturday early doors) for most ... Although with the overcast forecast for Thursday night for some ... perhaps the odd chance of some flurries on Thursday Night.
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3.7, cheers.
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Well, the BBC/met Office do seem to also dive in on the cold, snow for me Saturday, a week today and a week on Thursday ... Doubt it will be right considering the milder 'blip' in prospect for early next week.
Very exciting times ahead for us in the North, though ... especially this weekend ... I'm fairly confident that, on average, most places won't get above 2'C in the day if that.
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Everyone has there own thoughts on the model output this afternoon and evening all with different thoughts. I think if we see a cold trend lots of people always say the trend is there and always try and discount the mobile/milder conditions.
However the trend is there for milder and really not that cold conditions yes it may get chilly between the 2nd -6th with snow over high ground in the north but i think we are clutching at straws. Before anyone asks I am looking at all models and output, I do like colder weather and no im not trying to upset anyone.
Im trying to be honest lets recognise the trend for less cold contiditions....I have said trend and not any specifics I hope im wrong!
You're not the only one that is a bit miffed about next week!
The general scenario I think the models (despite their ever increasing conflicting signals) is for a cold snap this weekend with some possible notable falls the further North and East you go (away from these areas, the higher up you go) ...
Some decent agreement for a breakdown of the cold from the 3/4th onwards.
Looking even further ahead and just picking out the best bits, a ever so slight touch of a cold resurgence - perhaps - later on next week ... although this is extremely far away and could turn out to be a non event.
Speaking of non events, as some users have pointed out, I feel for the Irish.
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Monday 7th - tuesday 8th? you mean January?
3rd and 4th I should say. I'm not with it today
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I honestly remember 08/09 being almost an outstanding winter if I'm being honest ... it was brilliant and had it all. Also, unlike 10/11, all the cold snaps were spread out and all three Winter months had at least one decent snowfall which lasted more than two days.
I truly exceptional winter, was better than 2010/2011 in many ways.
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I hope not as, although we had a decent snowfall from a northerly on 23rd November 2008, that was about it in terms of decent wintry weather until February.
December 2008 was the worst of recent years - truly awful. There was a dusting of snow here on the 2nd then the rest of the month was shockingly bad. We suffered a very wet washout weekend over the 13th/14th and the second half was very mild, dull and boring. It reached 13C on the 21st and this was followed by endless gloom, with almost no diurnal temperature range, for the rest of the month putting a dampener on the festive period.
I recorded only one air frost during the second half of December which was on the last day of the month. Had it not been for that frost then the second half of December would have been the mildest since 1988.
January 2009 was a write-off as well with zero days of lying snow. Only the snowy first half of February saved that winter from being a total disaster. Certainly not a winter I want to see a repeat of
Well I am very surprised because here January 2009 was also a decent month with about 3 separate occasions, and about 10 days of lying snow in total. Just goes to show how much of a regionalized winter 2008/09 was
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I remember 2008 very well, I think it was about the 1st-7th of December which effected Northern England. Our snow cover lasted about a week if I can recall (about 10-15 cm).
I am one for historics .. and 2008 actually seems to stick in my mind quite well.
I also remember all the Pennine passes being closed in my area
To be precise,
I think the snow quickly arrived on December 1st overnight (quickly gave 10-15 cm in my location near the Pennines) followed by a morning of light snow showers. Caused light disruption on the morning in question including many school closures (mainly in towns close to the Pennines around my area; Oldham, Tameside, Rochdale, Huddersfield, Leeds, Bolton etc.)
An extremely disruptive amount of snow was forecast widespread for us in the North of England a few days later on Thurs 4th December, instead most of this fell as sleet or rain unfortunately but it still stayed cold until say the end of the week.
The reason why I'm describing all this is because the models, on average, seem pitch perfect for a repeat of 2008 but I know I shouldn't pattern match and I'm just tossing around ideas
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Could remind me of 2008 as well, I got a little snow off a northerly early Dec, seems too early yet to get proper cold, again that easterly on the 12Z is mildish
I remember 2008 very well, I think it was about the 1st-7th of December which effected Northern England. Our snow cover lasted about a week if I can recall (about 10-15 cm).
I am one for historics .. and 2008 actually seems to stick in my mind quite well.
I also remember all the Pennine passes being closed in my area
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It's been a beautiful day here today, so beautiful I went for a stroll on the Pennines. Masses of walkers, blue skies, crisp, cold, certainly was a great day!
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If I'm being really honest, this situation just reminds me of 2008
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I think we had about 5 days of lying snow here last winter, 4 of which was in February purely because we had 4 days of fog which meant the temperatures didn't really get above 1'C.
I sometimes forget that I am lucky living where I actually am in that it's extremely unlikely not to get more than 2 days of lying snow here (in the South Pennines)
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Whilst you're at it, 2005, 2008 and 2010 are all broadly similar to the currently suggested projections for late November into December and have a similarity to where we are now. Although, the more experienced folk in Meteorological circles suggest we shouldn't pattern match, it certainly seems uncanny during the current time.
Please note my use of the underlined words above, as like anything at t+6 and above, its all subject to significant change.
Now you lot, let's carry on with our predictions, expectations, hopes and wishes.
I think I may have explained that a bit too vague
I shouldn't have used the word pattern, I was just throwing some ideas across really. Thank you for your input though
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The met office must have high confidence of a colder end to November other wise they wouldn't have made the video, there super computer must be picking up on something quite strongly
I would expect to see the first widespread snow of Winter certainly in the east at all levels if this came off, December 2010 repeated? who knows time will tell
Seems out of character for you to say that
To be realistic though, perhaps a pattern similar to November/December 2008?
(25th November 2008 to 6th December 2008, a seasonable start to Winter especially in the North, Pennines seeing locally around 15cm of snow which lasted on the hills until the 10th December). I recall this one very well as it was pretty much the largest snowfall since 2005. (Despite this, as I said, it was sort of a more 'seasonable' start to the Winter than an 'extreme' one like 2010).
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-5 uppers getting close to Saddleworth and Oldham
Had a bet with a mate that the Latics will suffer from three or more postponments at Bounday Park this Winter/Spring. Hoping it's a good call!
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Extremely cold day here on the edge of the Pennines in Oldham for November but very pleasant with sunny spells and no rain. Frost for most tonight
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have you read mark vogans forecast? if so what did you think? i just read it on snowwatch uk
I haven't read it and I'm not planning too (as I'm sure many people on here aren't either).
It's better to stick to professionals instead of amateurs that waste their time and don't really know anything.
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Purposely left out February because it really is too far away, it would be ridiculous to forecast 3 months out...let alone 2 months lol.
Thanks for the forecast. Seems extremely realistic compared to some other's you see lingering around the web nowadays
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Apart from the CFS, which is, arguably, nest to useless, December is still a complete unknown...
I was just throwing back and forth some ideas.
I myself just have a slight feeling December will end up average or above with above average rainfall although I cannot say anything for truth at the moment, thus I will have probably changed my mind in two weeks!
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December looks bleak though, wet and mild like last year.
2003/2004 anyone?
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That is why I have been referring to 08/09.
Some people seem to be ruling out this Winter much much to easily
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I've been saying on this forum and others that I just cannot see a cold Winter this time around.
The recent blocking we have seen won't last forever, nature does have a way of balancing things out in this part of the world, so if we are going to get a couple of months where all the synoptics are ''right'' for cold then I would have much preferred to have seen it in Dec/ Jan / Feb as opposed to September and October (and possibly part of November ?)
My fear is that we are going towards a repeat of last winter, with High pressure exerting itself in the ''wrong place'' , therefor don't be surprised to see an Azores High or a Euro high starting to rear it's ugly head in the coming runs into FI, (which we are already seeing on the GFS in actual fact).
What this does is stop any incursions from the North coming down into the majority of the UK, and the only places that do get a decent shot at cold is Scotland on occasion.
Once the NAO goes into the + phase it tends to stay there for a while and were seeing in the NAO forecast a move towards a more + phase and the AO forecast in a weeks time is for a very + phase.
I guess time will tell, but my gut feeling is that we'll have to be very patient this winter and might have to wait until 2013 for our first potent cold spell of weather.....but I really do hope I am wrong
It is a good job November is starting to look more above average then
This means the blocking does have time to come back. Think 2008/2009
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cold is far better at Xmas or the run up, or just after new year, makes Xmas feel much better, and also mid nov to mid Jan is lowest weakest sun, 10-11 was my favourite recent winter
I suppose it also depends on location as well, for example here in the Pennines the largest accumulation was January 2010, then February 2009 then December 2010
North of England Regional Discussion
in Regional
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I wouldn't be too sure ... but surely a tad more than that? Temperatures perhaps colder more inland compared to Durham but I think with precipitation confidence fairly high ... I'd go for 70%.
I'm always wrong though