AutumnMists
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Very mild stuff again for next week - this mornings GFS run unfortunately sees no change to cold within the first two days of March. Let's hope today's later runs so some change
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Was not so long ago the met office changed their forecast, admittedly I have no seen it recently (Long range for the North West)..last time I saw it they called for February for the first week or two (in the east) to be colder than average), becoming mild to leave the entire month slightly above average temperature wise...they changed it during January to something else...funny how they nailed this month to a tee so far back...still a long way to go, but I think its all wishes on stars now. Northerly aint going to do nothing for us, while hp sits idly by, besides I think a lot of people are sick to the back teeth of cloud and rain
There is no mention on the Met Office's monthly outlook of mild conditions.
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I agree totally.
However once again I believe the GFS to be on the sherry.
High pressure well and truly in control, and its bringing up very mild air in with it. Today 9.6C, Saturday looking to be well and truly in double figures, reaching 12C I wouldn't be surprised. In fact a few agencies are going for double figures for sat for Liverpool, not surprising when you have warm air sitting over you, and unlikely to budge certainly for the next 5 or 6 days.
Was not so long ago the met office changed their forecast, admittedly I have no seen it recently (Long range for the North West)..last time I saw it they called for February for the first week or two (in the east) to be colder than average), becoming mild to leave the entire month slightly above average temperature wise...they changed it during January to something else...funny how they nailed this month to a tee so far back...still a long way to go, but I think its all wishes on stars now. Northerly aint going to do nothing for us, while hp sits idly by, besides I think a lot of people are sick to the back teeth of cloud and rain
One thing about this weekend is, of course, the further west you go (Merseyside, Cheshire, WIrral, Fylde), this makes a massive difference in the temperature especially since the weather front itself is likely to be weak in nature. Basically I'm saying this weekend we could see a massive difference between the cold East and the more average west.
I'm still sticking to many people near or on the Pennines or other high ground experiencing a wintry feel of some sort.
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January was slightly below average
*Yeah, it was ... just.
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What next?18/19 Feb? - hopefully a decent northerly25/26 Feb? - undercutting low pressure - snowfest.. I wish..3/4 March? - strong greenland high clear skies severe frosts.... lets hope winter can end on a high note!This will be the fourth very good winter on the trot for dry settled conditions. Indeed we have seen many more fine weekends during the last few winters than we have seen in our summers..
Nice logging of cold events there!
From my point of view I think this weekend might be more in the way of very cold nights (such as -3'c or -4'c) ... whereas the daytime temperatures will be at around 5'c or 6'c with possibly some light drizzle. Still a decent chance for a snowfall occurring in one of the nights or afternoons though I suppose. It may also be necessary to suggest a real icy mix on Monday morning causing some disruption in the early hours .... Let's hope this weekend does have a bit of seasonal character!
As for possible cold outbreaks late Feb/early March, I totally agree with you ... the GFS does show signs of decreasing temperatures on these dates ... certainly one to look out for as the last decade has seen some very harsh falls Late feb/early March.
All hopes are high.
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Speaking of which have you ever poped back to that other forum? I bet he's(you know who I mean) loving it, absolutely loving it.
Ohh that forum is too childish for me now
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Believe me, what i say and what I think are two entirely things. Over last few weeks I've had plenty of mood swings from positive to negative and vice versa , it just seems that the negative side seems to spill out more often than not lol.
The British weather is the British weather, it plays a massive part in some of our lives ... I totally understand your feelings!
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Yes mate GFS 06Z Shows a wintry weekend for the NW,like you say thought this is the GFS
and i cannot help this will get watered down in the next couple of days,but for now nice
to look at and if it verifys some nice beefy snow showers for the region starting saturday evening
and now back to reality....let the down grades begin LOL
C.S
Yess, looks like a much cooler weekend. In fact, the GFS models are being very consistent for these days, I mean they certainly don't get more consistent than this ...
However a decent bit of consistency also features in the prospects of a much more average or miler period next week after the cooler weekend.
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A pointless day of weather here in Oldham today, just a rapid thaw of remaining snow and rain showers, 7'C.
Still unsure about this weekend, signs point to a confident cooler phase with possible snow, but this will be very short lasting because as we progress through next week the outputs show more average or mild temperatures again (and a lot of rain)
. History; in terms of Winters that have had mild starts and cold ends; does show that another cold snap is expected, possibly late Feb/early March I suppose.
Despite that me, (and I'm sure along with many others), are mostly eagerly anticipating April and May now.
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Despite signs of another short burst of wintry stuff this weekend, lets hope the temperatures this week do give a Spring feel to it. Outputs show next week will be similar to this with mild or average temperatures after the more cooler stuff over the weekend.
I'm still going for a much more cooler start to March though (and, as ever for March, mixed) with below average rainfall .. and the prospects of sleet or snow returning ... although as we head through the next month I do expect a gradual trend to milder conditions followed by a typical April.
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Not sure about that.. rain bands, breezy weather, showers, interesting cloud formations, temperature variations, a few frosts maybe, etc.. yes no storms or dramatic weather and not the most interesting, but that's never going to happen all the time and if you only wish for unusual events than it will be unusual for you to be satisfied..
It might be that it's just been a bit more varied here than other places recently though.. reasonable temp variability recently, charts do show a variety of weather (thankfully next few day's set up not lasting too long) hopefully with showery cool/cold incrusions, frosts, milder weather with rain bands.. sort of normal really. One thing that has been missing from here though is a snow event.
No especially interesting events in the outlook but hopefully they will come along more than in 2011, I think most of November 2011 was one of the most boring spells I remember, weeks of endless mainly cloudy dry mild weather from the same air flow (it still did have a few foggy mornings with some nice visual effects though).
2011 very much reminds me of 2007; All winter months average or mild ... a warm Spring ... a forgetful Summer and a wet and mild Autumn.
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We'll see.
Wish I was that optomistic.
I'm just saying; the chances of a mild theme throughout the rest of the Month are unlikely. Average seems a good bet.
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Notice the BBC weekly Ceefax forecasts are showing a mild week for all of the UK, with only northern Scotland turning slightly colder by the end of the week.
It appears even Europe will lose the extreme cold they've had for the last couple of weeks. Despite the cold in parts of England recently, February could turn out to be mild overall, even in places that have had the cold.
Funny how things can change so quickly.
Highly unlikely, since a mild theme for the rest of February seems unlikely.
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I have no problem with people ramping a mild early spring......i love cold and snow...but if we get a warm late feb and march (even if its a bit wet) that's fine too....(but i do have a vested interest, greenhouses and poly-tunnels are more productive).
The concept of what Spring will bring has been very 'untalked' about recently of course ...Could March be the coldest month of the year? For example ... take March 12th 2005 (widespread snow), or 21st March 2008 (white Easter) or 6th April 2008 (Localized northern regions snow) ... We have seen plenty of times where March has bought some freezing weather.
The last few years have perhaps bought an 'early Spring' one may say ... however this year so far has been very different to the last few ... so perhaps the concept of a cold March and a 'Late' start to Spring may be in the picture again.
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I do believe however the real severity of this cold snap has reached its last leg - Despite temperatures being low over the next few days. If received upon expectation - rain for many bar the Pennines and Cumbria on Thursday and especially Friday - although early doors on Thursday could see a small period of light snow before the rain sets in at late afternoon.
Despite this - the nightime low's look to remain mostly a couple of degrees below 0 - or if not a touch above freezing - for at least 5 days until week commencing 13th.
Next week looks mixed and varied, next weekend and the week after looks a touch promising for cold.
As for mild, anything above 6/7'C looks unlikely for at least a good two weeks or so
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For some reason my phone is going for snow, Thursday, Friday and Saturday and up to now its not been wrong.
It might be correct - but with delicate temperatures like these just 1'C inaccuracy could play a part in whether we receive rain, sleet or snow. Last Saturday's snow was forecast correctly by Yahoo (phone) and incorrectly by the met office, but monday was the opposite.
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Trouble with Mark Vogan is he's been calling for a severe cold spell the "week after next" since early december. I do agree with him that there is potential at the moment for what he's calling for but I can't help but feel he's used the approach of throw as many darts and one might hit the target, lately. But apparently he was pretty close with predictions last winter and the winter before that so fair play to him for that.
Agree very much, although his forecast for winter so far has been in disagreement with others for the majority of this WInter so far, whereas this time, it would appear other forecasts are in favour
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Well time has now pretty much run out for long lasting wintry conditions in this area. The earliest that we could see a long snowy cold spell would be about 2 weeks, that will take us to 7th February.. after mid February long lasting cold gets harder and harder and I don't see it happening here as February is statistically warmer than January and March is when things really start to warm up quickly.
Areas further north will have chances for long lasting cold spells as the winter season lasts longer further north, but here it is just too unlikely.
In 6-7 weeks I could be sitting in the garden in temperatures of 70F... now that is a nice thought B)
Trust me, Post Mid-February is by no means the cut off point for long lasting snow - think of 2005 for example.
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Nothing much really interesting to ponder about in Greater Manchester this weekend. A touch below average temperatures looking likely next week, Monday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday looking just about cold enough for a slight touch of frost from the night.
Next weekend and week commencing 30th looking very uncertain from my point of view
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Quite a settled night here in Oldham for once this year.
Overcast but no rain, lows of 5'C
Next week looking boring, highs of around 8 and lows of 5 with light rain and cloud all week.
Still windy
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Yes no town/village in the Lake District should be described as extremely mountainous. Most settlements in the lakes are in the deep low valleys at 200m or below. Compared to Pennine towns and villages the lakeland towns/villages are much lower. Conditions change markedly with heights though - a wet chilly day in the valleys often means a whiteout at 700m +, also you can have snow in one valley but none in another just 2 miles away. local topography/relief plays a huge part in things in these parts.
February 2009 was a good example of this when most Cities received a rain/sleet mix compared to whiteout.
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It's weird because I think my local hills are high (Saddleworth Moor, Rishworth Moor, Blackstone Edge) When really they are not that high.
Well that's compared to Cumbria anyway ...
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WIndemere/Ambleside are lower Lakes I think, Keswick and Ullswater are in the extreme Mountainous range
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Today is mild but more importantly it isn't raining!
The rest of this mild spell looks a bit wet though, let's hope not
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North West Of England Regional Discussion - Part 8
in Regional
Posted
I'm hoping though there will be at least a tiny thin covering on Sunday on the hills around me. Let's hope so!
After this weekend, all attention turns to late Feb/March. I'm hoping for a repeat of 2004, 2005, 2006 or 2008