Eskimo
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Posts posted by Eskimo
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1 minute ago, sheikhy said:
1.5 degrees and -4 dew point here!temp very slightly higher than forecasted maybe?!
Doesn't matter with dew points like that.
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3 minutes ago, MattStoke said:
Might be cold for quite some time if this morning’s GFS is anything to go by. Mind you, next Sunday looks a bit warm.
-5C!?!
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As forecast, temperature rising ahead of the front. Temp has risen to +3.3C.
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2 minutes ago, beccaboo said:
Does that mean Coalville will be bad?
You mean, does that mean coalville will be even more bad?
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I think it would just be nice to get a covering of snow that will last all week.
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Metoffice yellow warning issued for the West and North Midlands and Wales down through the SW.
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2 minutes ago, MKN said:
Poor ecm early on
Won't pick up snow showers as it's not a high resolution model. Will only model the precipitation from frontal waves.
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I don't think we need to worry too much - yes the east will see the most snow in this setup, however on a very stiff easterly wind, these showers will penetrate well inland.
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I remember the days where the GFS rolled out normally and you could bet your house on a 10:45 finish.
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- Popular Post
The ECM in a nutshell...
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The GFS para is what I feel will happen (not because it's more favourable for us). I cannot see a low just barrelling through dense, cold air like a hot knife through butter.
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The GFS really drags its run out these days. I remember when by 9:45 it would already be up to 72 hours.
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1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:
No but you can see here at T120 there isn’t any precipitation at all:
Those showers modelled in the North Sea won't just dissipate as soon as they hit land like that. ICON has serious issues with convection on its low-res view.
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1 minute ago, Johnp said:
No, I think we need higher pressure over Scandinavia (proper greens and yellows) for us to get locked in.
Not necessarily, the Greenland high will do its job at keeping lows further south.
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This pattern should have us locked in for quite some time.
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1 minute ago, YellowSnow said:
Strange that. It wasn’t until yesterday, when it showed what people wanted to see.
Welcome to the forum Bill, I'm glad you've familiarised yourself rather quickly with the dynamics of this forum.
"A model is only as good as it's last stella run" should be the official motto.-
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Yeah..so about those 'downgrades'
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If I hadn't looked at the output for a few days, I'd be forgiven for thinking the outlook had suddenly switched from an easterly to a b******t unanimously across all the models. I would think at that point, "yeah, fair enough, that's pretty disappointing!"
Most of us are chasing nirvana, and yeah it doesn't look as fantastic as it did a few days ago, but the outlook looks far from 'home'. -
As I've said before, the ICON in the national view switches to a weird low-res problem after the 78hr mark. It's not worth looking at it post 78 hours.
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Settling here on anything organic. Slighly different to last week! Temp 0.7C.
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Lashing down with rain now. You get some bursts of snow here and there but overall its pretty grim.
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Sort of drifting between snow and sleet here. Pretty dreich morning.
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Taking its sweet time to turn here!!
EDIT: ITS TURNING
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MetOffice precip chart showing Birmingham being the best place to be (assuming conditions are favourable). A brummie is never more than a couple of miles away from 200m+.
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Midlands Regional Discussion Feb 2021 Onward
in Regional
Posted · Edited by Eskimo
Birmingham can be really naff in easterlies. The long-land track doesn't help in direct easterlies as East Anglia adds just that little bit more land. The Wash can help the West Midlands providing the wind direction is more ENE...which will be the case for a time.
Not expecting much here, so if anything does crop up, it's better than anticipated.