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Eskimo

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Posts posted by Eskimo

    Storm Eunice - 18th February

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, Nick L said:

    Bude is taking a battering. This is exactly why the danger to life warnings were warranted. Getting hit by some of this debris could end your life:

    To those giving the whole "what a let down, it was exaggerated, what storm?" nonsense - just stop. 

    Agreed. Although the guy hyperventilating like an F5 tornado had ripped through is funny as hell. 

    • Like 1

    Storm Eunice - 18th February

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

    Definitely lower pressure than predicted by the models already

    image.thumb.png.0acad66ed19a4f98c327e21f100671e0.png

    987mb at 19z. Compare this with the models

    GFS, Arpege, ICON, ECM and GEM at or maybe slightly under 990mb at 19z

    These 5 models are closest to the mark but are slightly less deep with the low at the same 19z timeframe

    image.thumb.png.20a9f9084a57fddda6731727e99112a2.pngimage.thumb.png.3062421061de2b11b979af864f48fcf8.pngimage.thumb.png.de3181e6d05941ec7a9f7b2e9785c647.png

    image.thumb.png.1713eecb6bbd3200b9fe5ff4f9d4567d.pngimage.thumb.png.a6d35617f0a5620ad5289a42f35065b2.png

    NASA has 995mb at this stage 19z

    NASA a bit less strong than the main models

    image.thumb.png.b6c461bb65581055a7e0a65e45802b8a.png

    CFS and NAVGEM 1000mb at 19z

    CFS and NAVGEM more conservative with the deepening of the storm

    image.thumb.png.8ceb9a6cf3685be5536fd7966c160afd.pngimage.thumb.png.e3a0920a497e798b646f680cc048e144.png

    JMA 1005mb at 19z

    JMA least keen on developing this storm

    image.thumb.png.b1cc3b30698d92b50c802ef5f59b7fb3.png

     

    It would seem the strongest predictions are closest to the actual outcome at present but even these have underestimated the developing storm so far.

    This to me would suggest a more northerly track than predicted and even stronger winds.

    I wouldn't be surprised if several places top 100mph winds and further north than predicted.

    Could mean my part of the country gets battered completely tomorrow afternoon and even more so as the storm exits in the evening.

    Where can I find the pressure charts please?

    Storm Eunice - 18th February

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted · Edited by Eskimo

    Quickly glancing at the 0z GFS ensembles - a greater number now don't have a closed low (underdeveloped) and/or have it crossing southern parts compared to yesterday's 0z. About a quarter just have it as a wave.

    Don't want to tempt fate, but I feel we are heading, thankfully, to a more watered-down version. 

    • Like 5

    Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, johncam said:

    For us has had the same effect to be honest 

    Sort of. A Bartlett would traditionally give us some of our mildest Winters as it draws up warm southerly air. We've had persistent heights either just to the West or over the top which largely gives us cool but moderate temperatures for the time of year (aka...absolutely boring). 

    Would rather take the Bartlett so at least the daffodils can pop up to give us a little hope. 

    • Like 2

    Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

    Frustrating that ukmo has a no show on meteociel. Not the first time it's done this at critical periods. Still showing yesterday's 12z run on wetterzentrale.de for me so don't know how people got access to it. 

    Probably showing a christmas day blizzard for much of the central belt of the UK and the metoffice are covering it up. Don't want to panic people 

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