Eskimo
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Posts posted by Eskimo
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GEM and GFS have the band 50 miles further north tomorrow. Sounds familiar, doesn't it?
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Just now, MattStoke said:
I would take the ICON for mid week even though it would eventually turn back to rain
Wouldn't trust it after 72 hours as it switches to low resolution.
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The warning reflects higher elevation of the Welsh hills and Cotswolds, so there's confidence now that's it's really just a 300m+ event. The warning will only stipulate settling snow as the risk, therefore whilst those north of the warning area may still see snow, settling snow is limited away from higher ground.
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1 minute ago, weirpig said:
As matt said Arome further North
Cold and wet
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I'll reserve any judgement until it's on the bloody radar. Last week's was, what, 50-100 miles further north than what the models were predicting THAT VERY MORNING!?
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Just went out for the first time today and it feels a lot like Spring! 12.4C here.
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It won't the same as last weekend at all, the air was colder and the feature was a trough. Saturday's feature is a broader system that's modifying the air. The question is whether any of it settles.
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NMM suggesting actual accumulating snow to be around 5-10cm
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If the snow happens across the Midlands, I'll put this Winter down as being in the top 5 at least. My favourites are (in order) 2009, 2013, 2018, 2010.
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Ground temps remain above freezing throughout Saturday, hence the lack of settling snow. With situations like that, you'd need precipitation to be falling heavier than the its ability to melt to create a layer (similar to last week when rain suddenly turned to heavy snow). Once that happens, it lowers the ground temps considerably. \
The problem is, the precipitation doesn't look particularly heavy.
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Just now, MattStoke said:
How are people able to view the GFSP? It hasn’t updated for about a week when I look on Meteociel.
It's absolutely fine. Clear your cache!
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Just now, Tim Bland said:
Yes, further south with more in the way of snow...
Evaporative cooling event there for southern areas. Very marginal.
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Fronts struggling against the colder air - being pushed south west on each run.
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Anyone's temp rapidly shoot up around 3am? We went from -4C to -1.5C and then went back down to -2.5C.
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Skies clearing here. Temp has dropped to -1.2C.
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If all the snow had cleared by daytime, with maximum nocturnal cooling we could have seen -10C+
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I think my partner is beginning to think I'm going mad. Radar checks, lamppost watching, curtain twitching.
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1 minute ago, Arctic Hare said:
Coming down steadily again here in Bewdley. Small flakes here too, but quite a lot of them!
That will be 'dry snow', quickly accumulates.
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Can't grasp the delay with the amber if I'm honest. Covering their backs?
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Some moisture coming back into birmingham. Snizzling a little now.
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Assuming it doesn't peter too much, a nice coasting after dark will be nice as things start to refreeze!
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Western edge over Cheshire starting its journey southward.
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Just now, Gustywind said:
Met office has a 50% risk of light snow again from 3pm, escalating from then up to a 90% risk of heavy snow at 6pm, so will be interesting to see if that’s correct.
I'm about a mile or so away from you in Maypole. Wythall always looks beautiful in the snow.
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The band is about as north as it will go on its western side. Eastern side still swinging north on the circulation but won't get any further than Lincoln.
Midlands Regional Discussion Jan 2021 Onward
in Regional
Posted · Edited by Eskimo
BIG improvement on the ECM
06z 12z