Eskimo
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Posts posted by Eskimo
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So hang on. We've got this from the GEM (albeit 12 hours ago)
And this from the UKMO
and I'm supposed to worry about one run from the GFS?-
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1 minute ago, Met4Cast said:
Very bizzare 168 chart..
Had it undercut, would it make it less bizarre? Could undercut, but thats both GFS and ECM singing from the same sheet...for now.
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This is what I like to call the worst possible chart in Winter. Genuinely. Raging south westerlies at least bring warmth, this will bring nothing but cold rain whilst the truly deep cold is inches away.
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So what I'm seeing is the GFS still largely suggesting what the MetOffice are indicating in their mid-term forecast.
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The GFS still ends with high pressure in charge which is positive. However, the position of any high controls the difference between endless grey, cool murk and snowy nirvana.
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Too much energy riding over the top - cold anti-cyclonic gloom.
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An absolute classic appearing.
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3 minutes ago, Staffmoorlands said:
A classic Bartlett high developing there
Don't mention the 'B' word around these parts.
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Probably the fewest amount of posts during a GFS run I have ever seen - especially during the pub.
Sums it up really. Maybe we are seeing the building blocks towards sustained cold with high pressure in abundance and a tired looking PV towards the end...but not much interest with regards to weather on the ground for the next 2 weeks according to that. -
4 minutes ago, Staffmoorlands said:
18z GFS shows what can happen when the high doesn’t move to Scandinavia. Yuk
Indeed, but it's the WAA pumping into the northern latitudes which interests me.
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We had sleet...exciting stuff.
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Slightly more favourable conditions for frontal snow on the 12z. Low digs slightly further SE.
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We've had light snow, the proper stuff, not the large wet flakes and it's settling everywhere.
The frustrating thing is that we'd have had a an absolute pasting had the precips been much heavier.
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Should see the first precip around 11pm so some of us will still be up.
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This is something we don't want to see - a low stalled out west of the UK drawing up southerly air due to high pressure over southern/SE Europe. If it were to pan out like this, hopefully temporary as the atmosphere shifts around.
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Just enough snow here (~1cm) to make things a little christmassy.
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49 minutes ago, MattStoke said:
A few charts for tomorrow’s risk.
ICON
Euro4
Both right over Stoke.
MOGREPS ensembles.
Yeah quite surprised at the potential tomorrow. Looks like a lively trough pushing south. One of those that could go anywhere.
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Wasn't expect anything but nice surprise.
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I now own a house and im only now worrying about high winds!
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Sleet here...but mostly rain. Pretty rubbish.
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Brief light snow here
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2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:
Bypasses Birmingham. Mind you, I don't blame it.
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2 minutes ago, phil b said:
Ok cheers, upper air not cold enough yet then.
That, and associated lower dew points AND the precipitation isn't heavy enough.
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Well it's snowing in Whitley Bay on the NE coast so we must be able to get something inland and with elevation.
Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by Eskimo
Yes the 12z brings the 0C isotherm 50 miles further south. Small margins like that mean the difference between cold rain and narnia.