[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

Morning Cold-Chasers..

Before we kick off another fraught day in here, please remember that the models do not dictate the weather, and it is pointless picking holes and overanalysing and getting yourself in a tizz over computer generated statistical simulations. It really isn’t! I know everyone is dying for a day off work BUT..

Every single cold event has its wobbles. Unfortunately with the wobbles seem to come unhelpful posts- and for anyone that saw my post last night which is probably 10000 pages back, I talked about one-upmanship. So once again-there are no prizes for being the person who declared that this would be a bust already. If you like the feeling of being right and dwelling jn the misery of others, this isn’t the place for you. The tone of some of the ‘I told you so’ posts creeping in already is really unpleasant and unnecessary. This isn’t what this forum is about and is not in the spirit of things at all.

If you wouldn’t say it to someone in the pub for fear of losing some teeth, it’s probably best not typed out and posted. I appreciate that these scenarios cause emotions to run high but it’s not okay to turn on one another. It’s also not very cool to mudtrack into twitter - going off and complaining about this forum and it’s posters on a public platform replying to senior Meteorologists just makes you look like a child. If you have an issue, please report it to the team.

Finally any obviously trolling or wind up posts will be removed and you’ll find yourself unable to post for a bit. 

PLEASE be nice to each other. Otherwise might be best turn your screen off and enjoy some cold air- it’s not like it was in December!

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

PLEASE can we take the BBC chat into the relevant thread.

thanks.

 

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

Guys.

It’s one run. and it’s not a reason to be petty or start bickering.

it would be nice to not spend Friday night sitting loads of people out because it is way too busy to be dealing with bickering on an individual basis.

there is some extreme knee jerking in here and it is misleading and unfair to those who aren’t familiar with the highs and lows that the chase for cold takes us on. Please don’t write off the cold spell over one frame.

Also you don’t get a prize for being right if you decided earlier that this whole cold spell was going to be crap. There will be no one-upmanship tolerated on this thread. 

 

Just let it unfold and let’s see where it takes us.

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

Have a feeling it’s going to be busy and fast moving tonight so:

• if you want to know if it’s going to snow in you back yard , head to your regionals - don’t forget the seasoned posters all have regionals and often post in their respective threads too

• We won’t be tolerating personal remarks/digs or otherwise. If it’s in good humour put it in banter. If it’s not then don’t post it.

• Reverse psychology and trolling doom posts will also be removed unless backed up with decent rationale. Not a ‘feeling in your tummy’

• please please can we avoid out of context tweets being posted in here, we had a nightmare with it last night, there is a tweets thread.

•please report any posts you don’t feel belong in here, PLEASE don’t reply or requote them.

•Enjoy! Be nice to each other! It could be a memorable spell coming up.

 

 

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

And quoting the original post just makes it reappear.....

Please report posts that you feel shouldn’t be here rather than commenting on them. Then one of us will get a notification.

[Model banter returns]

Look we aren’t going to please everyone. If it’s not working for you then that’s fine, perhaps take a look at somewhere else that isn’t ’overmoderated?’ 

All we are asking is that folks stay on topic. Nothing to do with egos, thick skins or any of it. When there are several hundred people reading and posting on a thread a derailment can be extremely challenging to sort out.

 

 

 

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

If it’s banter it will be moved to the banter thread. 

Believe me we are understanding but one ‘banter’ post that leads to two pages of replies of off topic, innuendo ridden banter causes a headache. We can’t have rules for one ‘banter post’ and rules for another. It doesn’t work, and that was really evident that just letting banter and model chat mix in the cold hunting thread caused issues which didn’t make for good reading for anyone involved.

so once more; if it’s banter, post it in the banter thread. Simples.

[Model banter returns]

There’s no fun police - we are just trying to keep the model thread on topic. Believe me I don’t get much joy out of deleting posts at all.

This is why we set this banter thread back up specifically for banter, to avoid it derailing the main thread, which over the weekend became an enormous problem and ate into a lot of mine and the other Mods’s time trying to mop up. 

Anyone with specific issues about their post going missing or being moved please pm me or one of the team directly.

ta!

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

Guys

Metoffice chat in the metoffice thread please.

Commentary on the appearance of TV personalities, weather or otherwise probably best suited to the lounge.

 

Thnx!

[The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

- No but seriously

whats the point of spending 10 mins to create a post that can then be reviewed for model accuracy for it to be removed.

Did the post, post?  I've checked & None of your content has been taken off Steve..

[The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19]

Guys, I feel like we are recycling the same arguments over and over and over again. I'm just waiting for someone to pipe up with ' Oh but you said it would be cold in two weeks time two weeks ago, this weather is rubbish, the Meto don't know what they're talking about, I'm going to die if the 30 dayer doesn't match someone on twitter... and on and on and on and on.

If there is an appetite to argue the toss over which model is best (because y'know we've not done that before.... ) then perhaps open a thread on it and those that wish to chew the fat over which algorithm excites them can do just that.

 

Otherwise can we *try* to keep to model output discussion?

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

Gosh Fatigue is strong this morning. I think some might need to take a step back for a few days- I’m not sure that restating how disappointing everything is every.single.run. Is necessary/healthy? We get it. It’s not snowing. The output isn’t showing what anyone wants and you feel cheated because we were ‘promised cold’

It’s the weather. You can’t complain to Atmospheric customer services on twitter about not getting what you were ‘promised’. If your post involves a moan about cold being pushed back/the SSW not working/ how bored you are it might be better for the general chat threads OR your innner monologue?

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

There aren’t mods on here 24/7.. believe it or not we have lives too. Also, it’s Friday night. 

If anyone is in any doubt, It is a lot easier if you can report the post(s) you are concerned about rather than posting that you are concerned about posts. This sends us a notification but also allows us to look at the specific post and then sort them out, rather than deal with the problem posts and all the posts saying that there is a problem post.

Scrolling through, I saw a comment about Moderating consistency. Sorry it’s not to expectation, small thing called Christmas holidays happening and unfortunately my three year old requires far more moderating than you lot do.....

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

54 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, people who are writing off the January spell are premature and very possibly wrong, however, discussing the Strat warming is massively relevant, moderators saying just wait for the timescale to come into range of the models are missing the point, the strat output is vital determining this, if the 1mb chart on the ECM i posted earlier comes to fruition and is repeated at 10mb, then yes, its practically inevitable we will have a bitter Jan spell, but i have never seen such variation from modelling of the strat at such short timescales before, until we get agreement on the specifics of the SSW in terms of where the daughter vortices end up then it is perfectly valid for discussion.

I'm not missing the point Feb, sorry if I wasn't clear.  The point I'm making is that people looking for cold/easterly output in the reliable (and there's an awful lot of them on the last 6 pages...) that may arise from an SSW need to be patient.  I wasn't referencing the strat output.

 

 

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

Not sure if everyone RTFT yesterday but there was a lot spoken about charts not showing much of cold interest yet because the SSW hasn’t actually happened yet so getting worked up over current output is pointless because the catalyst for the change hasn’t occurred. 

‘Colder possibiities’ are touted for Jan. Jan is a long way off, and I would really encourage as Damienslaw suggested to just perhaps stop over analysing every single run. There is enough pro chat both sides of the Atlantic to fill most people with cautious confidence.

Anyone looking for cold Christmas week, well you’re best off camping out in Sainsbury’s frozen peas section for now. The ‘cold possibilities’ won’t affect us for several weeks which is deep deep FI for regular modelling. Stop beating yourselves up over it!

 

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

Back to the models please folks.....

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

59 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

Just a reminder. Stratospheric time scales are extremely slow. Modelled effects of the warming not likely to show until 7th January at the earliest. That's still a few days yet before it gets into GFS range. 

Just reposting this in case folks missed it upthread for those knee jerking about snowmageddon not being shown on the current outputs.

I think model fatigue might have set in a little bit, if you are hanging off every single run I really, really recommend taking a break, else you will drive yourself loopy examining every nuance of every frame. 

Panic not! Lots happening, be patient!

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

Awful Lot of folks on here this morning with an opinion about how silly looking at day 10 models are. Interestingly not many of them had much to say on any output analysis at all until now. Amazing how we have a slew of new experts when the models don’t behave as expected

if you’re in that camp of ‘day 10 model watching is pointless’ then might I suggest you stick to watching the televised weather forecasts and basking in the knowledge that you will probably always be right, and then you can leave those who like to make a stab at a forecast based on output analysis alone to pursue a hobby they enjoy.

nobody gets a prize for being right or wrong and it’s frankly just a bit poor if you enjoy being the person who takes pleasure in saying ‘I told you so’.

there’s lots of other places on the internet for your badly articulated ‘realism’.

Thanks.

 

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

14 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

To add to the disappointing EC mean longer term the beeb really becoming bullish about the Atlantic moving in..

Dont shoot the messenger!

<steps out of topic for one post>

That would correlate with the bbc getting their weather info from Meteo group which I believe predominantly use the EC suite for data and forecasting though. Met office lost the contract last year, so personally I take to their (the met o) YouTube channel for what I feel is a more rounded set of info. There’s some threads on it kicking around in general weather discussion.

<steps back into topic> 

 

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

Oooooookay.

Nobody is right or wrong here. This is the hunt for cold thread. if you are looking for a more 'balanced' discussion there is the other model thread which might be more receptive to commentary around milder outcomes.

We have the same every year, the weather will do what it wants, chart interpretation is just that - interpretation. If we can keep the personal jibes out of it and remove the emotion from the discussion, it makes this thread a lot easier for everyone to read.

I do think that the 'Winter is over and I'm off to get my deckchair' posts are a bit over the top. Yes we aren't receiving the cold that was hinted at last week, but having just walked back from the station in the freezing rain, it's not the kind of weather I'd be using to top up my tan. So yes, while I accept it's not 6ft drifts out there at the moment, it is certainly more seasonal.

Lots to be resolved, and as ever, don't get hung up on one run.....

[Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold]

Weren’t  yesterday’s 12z’s also a bit of a downer before the pub run bounced it back?

I’m just saying it’s probably too early to write any cold spell off just yet- I’m sure there will be some tweaks but it’s misleading to suggest that the semi cold spell next week is off the cards or indeed the building blocks for December are off the table.

everyone remain calm!

[Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold]

Aaaaaaand back to the models please.

It’s one run. And also this isn’t the place for oneupmanship and ‘I told you so’ and winters over and all that. It’s the same year after year after year and if posters don’t like the rules and want to stick to the forum etiquette then they can post somewhere else. We don’t tolerate personal attacks or just general poor behaviour. Let’s just be grateful we have this kind of cold potential even in the offering for this time of year, some of you have very short memories.

Thanks!

 

 

[Model output discussion - summer rolls on]

Morning chaps.

Model discussion in here please, there’s a thread a plenty for historical weather chat and preferences and all that kind of thing.

merci!

 

 

[Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 1st June onwards]

1 hour ago, Nick F said:

Didn’t expect storms in south Midlands too, if anything, the line of storms across the SE getting more active lightning-wise as they cross Essex and N Kent

Now Paul Sherman has flown back stateside, the storms are returning to south Essex.

I know! He is literally a one man stormshield

[Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 1st June onwards]

Raining torrentially here and some very vivid lightning, even against the daylight. Thunder woke us all up about half an hour ago, all very exciting!