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Team Jo
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Loving the updates folks, but please be careful if you are out chasing! Don't take any unnecessary risks or get distracted with your tech and then write off your car! No photo or video is worth getting squashed flat for.
Usual other precautions apply (No golf courses, under trees, take shelter etc).....
I'm hoping the channel fuels these imports a bit and we see something just as it gets dark. I'm a little NW of where @Paul Sherman is and I can also confirm we have had zero rain, but lots of convection and some rumbles.
Stay Safe all!
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Just thought I’d check the window that faces north.. some seriously rapid convection now. This wasn’t here 5 minutes ago!
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Less daylight = easier photography!!
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Looking s/sw, 31c, very breezy (woo!) heard some grumbles from the Chelmsford effort.
biding my time.....
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5 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:
For those of us east of London and in Kent should be encouraged by recent developments SE Of Brighton which should congeal into an MCS this evening according to some HI Res Model Data I have seen which I cant share unfortunately
Yeah I stayed put in the end. Glad I did, I’ll be out trying to find somewhere with no trees and some elevation, maybe Thorndon south or maybe down to Coryton.
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1 hour ago, Paul Sherman said:
We are unfortunately placed for Surface based storms I agree, there simply is not the land track for Essex and Surrey in our locales. You have to get very lucky with a NE Moving storm to form for you just inland from the Hampshire Coast or for me north of Brighton. Otherwise its MU Cape Storms from France which deliver or get annoyed by Surface based Supercells raging in NW France that lose intensity as they encounter the English Channel.
I would take a punt on a possible MCS This evening for our area so all is not lost..................yet
Other than That East Cambs, Norfolk, Suffolk and Lincs looks primed if you can drive just a little bit north today.
Yeah, I'm weighing up whether to head up the M11 and see how it unfolds OR sit tight and wait for a chance on an MCS later. Friday traffic though
I was kind of spoiled on holiday, but I swear to god I will kick myself if I miss something 50 miles away this afternoon. Also after seeing the towers going up illuminated by the moonlight in the early hours, I'm considering the eclipse might be a photo op.
Argh I don't know! At least it's heating up tho.
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The Chelmsford cell just keeps on giving! Every time I think it’s going to stop The elevated lightning delivers a crystal clear C-C.
Estofex looking interesting (and in line with Nick F’s & Dan H’s forecast too). Just chatting to the folks at Essex weather on Twitter, we have a shared concern about the residual cloud pegging back the temps by lunchtime, so fingers crossed once this lot is through the sun can get going and so it’s thing. I just need to decide if I am going to try and catch the Supercellular potential to my north in the afternoon, or sit tight and wait for the MCS to come to me in the evening. <lazy chasing> but I really don’t want to be caught in Friday traffic!
i really ought to go back to bed.
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I’m sandwiched between two cells at the moment, the one which is now to my E had some very decent crawlers on it. Both seem to be not trying very hard now though, but what IS a bit good is the Moon illuminating the cloudscapes.
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Aaaaand we’re off!
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Met office apparently going for a 20% chance of the record being broken Friday according to guidance statement.
I’ve not looked at any charts this evening though, but interesting percentage in the mix there, would love to see (as ever) what they’re seeing on MOGREPS
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2 minutes ago, Leo97t said:
12z. Now that's what I call a downgrade and probably a cold outlier
Can you share the Chart so the rest of the readers can see? It’s really helpful to attach an image or two with commentary so we can see what you’re seeing
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Guys, don’t reply to posts you feel are trolling, please report them and the team will sort them.
more replies = more posts to remove to get the discussion on track and quite honestly it is waaaaaay too hot for me to be doing this at 10.30 on a Sunday night with an errant 3 year old that won’t sleep. Don’t feed em! (kids, trolls, gremlins etc)
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Yeah we've lost power... Just a little respite and the radar is showing another pulse incoming. Stay safe too!
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Hmmm... Well that escalated quickly
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We're currently under an orange warning for violent thunderstorms here in Biscarosse. I'm expecting initiation in the next couple of hours or so, we're going to go and sit and watch it kick off from the lake.
Had some really remarkable mammatus the day we arrived and an all night strobing MCS which was spectacular.
I guess the downside is that we are camping and obviously my love of storms tends to make life under canvas a bit tricky! Fortunately the wine is cheap and plentiful
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We're off to Tours tomorrow and then onto Biscarosse for our holiday Sunday, we are camping for two weeks
The CAPE values are, quite frankly filthy.
Temps look pretty intense too!
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yes there seems to be some activity on the northern flanks now crossing from Aylesbury - luton - Braintree.
Very interesting indeed!
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I've been waiting for this Cell to eventually make it's way from France since about 9pmn last night, and now it's here it seems to have parked itself slap bang over the office, talk about slow moving!! We're right next to some huge cranes so I've got the camera trained on them and just waiting to see if it drops anything, we've had a couple of close strikes in Camden already, but the rain is biblical.
Selfishly I'm hoping that we revert back to night time storm action from tomorrow as a) it's easier to capture and b) I've got three days off with my little boy and the prospect of indoor activities with him over half term makes me die inside a bit......plus we got all out summer stuff out in the garden.
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39 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:
How you get that much and how did it sneak past me here
Coming the 15 miles to Brentwood to sledge tomorrow then, any decent venues apart from South Weald ?
It’s the sneaky Brentwood elevation! I’ve got piles of the stuff here. South Thorndon is pretty good for sledging, The slope is steep and it gets overlooked by everyone piling into Weald.
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I’ve only just popped in and I don’t really know or care what or who has said what but honestly, if you’re insisting on spending your Saturday night having a keyboard warrior sesh then we’re probably going to sit you out for a bit. This kind of thing between two or three people ruins it for the 100+ others reading it.
if you don’t like a post, report it. If you take issue with a member, block them or PM them. Being behind a keyboard doesn’t give you license to be rude, we don’t tolerate that here.
in other news we have about 4in accumulated and it’s stuck to the roads and still coming down.
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Heavy snow in Camden Town, I’ve just hot footed it out of work.
interestingly my childminder has just said it’s drizzling back at home in Brentwood, anyone else over that way confirm?
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Made it into work today, but now looking at when I can escape before I end up waiting at Liverpool street for three hours. Freezing Snizzle here at the moment.
Ugh.
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Snowing here in Brentwood.Not loads, but it's snowing.
We did very well with the 'Patchy localised' stuff overnight and up until lunchtime, there was at least another 10cm on top of the 10cm we already had previously. No thaw though today, so if we can get another top up I'll take it.
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Just dropping in as the sister thread has more folks in Anglia than Essex - I'm in Brentwood and it's snowing small flakes, but lots of them. Everything we cleared yesterday from the patio etc has been covered again, and the wind is blowing a blimmin gale.
Did not expect this at all this morning! V interesting to see how the next couple of days pan out. It's still -3.4c here.
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Model output discussion - summer rolls on
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Had to move/hide some posts. Please can we keep this to model discussion, as oppose to a circling pit of blame where those who like heat are given a hard time, and those who prefer the cold are shouted down?
It is extremely hard to keep the balance in here, in fact it's been like it all year since we had the significant cold snap. I don't think anyone here wishes the ill effect of the weather on anyone, and it's a bit poor that people feel the need to infer that if someone is talking excitedly about an extreme, then they are wishing harm on people. I am one of those who is interested in the extremes for sure, but. I don't for one second wish that anyone ends up squashed flat by an EF5 tornado. Does this make me a terrible person also? No. It makes me a weather enthusiast.
If there isn't already (and I'm sure there is) then may I suggest that if there's the burning desire to debate the impacts of incoming heat/storms/whatever, then someone opens a thread for it.
Thanks, please continue.