[Model output discussion - mid-winter]

If you think a post doesn’t below here or is off topic then simply report it.

posting about an off topic post is another off topic post..... you see where I’m going with this-  look, you guys are going to have me crawling towards the gin bottle by 6pm if this keeps up...

 

[Model output discussion - mid-winter]

Okay, I’ve moved and removed a whole heap of posts.

Please take banter into the appropriate thread.

thanks!

[Model output discussion - mid-winter]

Guys, please read Paul’s opening post to this thread.

personal insults around forecast, opinion or posting style are not welcome. 

If you are unhappy with a post directed at you please report it rather than retaliate.

thanks. Be nice. 

 

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[Model output discussion - into 2018]

Genuinely considering adding the word Easterly to the Swear filter. 

There’s so much to be resolved at the ‘reliable’ time frame, I wouldn’t hang my hat on any of the outcomes - 10 days ago winter was over wasn’t it?

On a serious note, there is some lively debate in here tonight which I think is really good for he most part. The part I’m not so keen on is the almost persistent attempts by some to shoot one another down. You don’t get any prizes for calling this one right or wrong. If you vehemently disagree with a poster I’d recommend PMing then rather than publicly nitpicking. Else your posts (and posting ability) might have to be revoked for a bit. Just be nice!

As ever usual request apply, charts to back up one liners, Meto office and countryside discussion in other threads, sobbing into your wine on banter....

come on then ECM, what have you got for us tonight?!

 

 

[Model output discussion - into 2018]

Pleeeeeeeeeeeeeeeease. For me. For the 200-odd folks online eagerly anticipating the pub run. If you aren’t posting model discussion, if you’re incredulous that anyone in here is chasing, thinking, analysing, interpreting anything +t96 then just go elsewhere, this thread is not for your scorn/criticism of interest/pouring cold water on stuff. It’s poor to do so given then effort some of our posters go to analysing and making interpretations.

if you want to moan about how hopeless statistically based outputs are then I urge to you the moan and ramps thread. If you want to make snippy observations on people trying to make sense of statistically based outputs, then a weather forum isn’t really going to be your thing is it?

We have a short range thread which has some excellent analysis. It’s a good tonic to some of the teases we’ve seen in here and hopefully gives a bit more context and meat to progged output.

 

 

[Model output discussion - into 2018]

Folks, I feel I’ve walked into a banter thread. Oh, wait it’s not! 

I know it’s January and everyone is back to work and sad and looking for the next cold spell, but PLEASE can we keep this to model discussion, there’s at least 15 posts I’m about to move/delete  and sorry in advance but I’m probably not going to PM every single one of you to say sorry and give a justification because it’s Friday night and I’m tired.

its been a really long week for model watching, and I think the unusual setups are cause for really great conversations. I kind of feel we all need to get up off the floor and just get over the ECM failure. Let’s move on.

and be nice.

[Model output discussion - into 2018]

I think anyone confidently calling out any model output at 10 days out to be correct probably needs to just sit back and think about slidergate last month. I seem to recall several mornings like this sitting on the train scrolling through pages of one upmanship and backslapping and trolling when the output and projected track changed almost run to run. And in the end lots of places ended up colder (and with snow!) than originally predicted. By the Meto included. 

I appreciate not everyone buys into the ‘it’s just one run’ mantra but let me put it another way - there’s a hell of a lot more runs between now and day 10.

Let’s get the cold here first and then start worrying about how long it will stick around. 

Also, just be nice to each other please!? If you wouldn’t say your post to someone in person, then it’s probably not suitable for in here.

 

[Model output discussion - into 2018]

Before I start scrolling back the last few pages I’m getting a sense of unpleasantness creeping in from the last few posts alone.

Please, if you take issue with a post please report it and PM a member of the team so we can figure out the best way to deal with it. Please bear in mind that it’s rush hour and some of us are travelling so we can’t always leap on the reports immediately, but please, rather than attacking each other, just report, ignore and continue. 

Thanks.

 

 

[Model output discussion - into 2018]

I think we’re done with who prefers what model and what it shows and who is right, no? None of this has actually happened yet, it’s all ‘probable/possible’ outcomes.

the one liner stuff is super tiresome. And really confusing for the uninitiated. 

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 01/01/2018 onwards]

Interesting as I thought we had some distant flashes earlier. The wknd is continuous at the moment, sounds like a jet aircraft: 

[Model output discussion - into 2018]

Happy new year posters, lurkers, lovers, fighters!

It’s looking like an interesting period of model watching currently, so welcome to those guests who have also dropped in to see what the scoop is too. In all likelihood you probably want to know if it’s going to snow, and where. We have some really good regional threads which cater for all those questions here:

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

if you’re a cynic, or can’t contain your excitement we have the moans and ramps thread which is there for all your emotional outbursting needs :

finally we have a new area for the short term output hutch will quench the thirst of anyone wanting to look at precip/snow depths in the reliable (when we get there) too here :

there’s also a met office thread where you can pick apart every word Exeter have uttered in the last week or so...

finally this thread moves super fast when we have signals like this which is great, but please consider a couple of things when posting: when the thread is cluttered with ‘will it snow in Great Dunmow on midday on sunday’ X 50000 then other posts which may be more relevant and indeed might actually answer that question get lost in the carnage. Everyone’s input is welcome and no question is a silly question, there are just better places on the forum to ask certain questions. Don’t be peeved if your post gets moved or deleted there’s only a few of us trying to keep it civil, and we will do our best to let you know where it’s gone and why.

Now let’s all think easterly thoughts! 

TJ

[Model output discussion - winter proper underway]

I’m sensing some slightly snippy undertones in a few posts. 

If you take issue with a post, do think about your reaction as oppose to firing off the first thing that pops into your mind. Keyboard warriors are not required in here thanks. 

If something really boils your ham then report it or PM the member. We might (and believe me I’m as keen for cold as the next person) just have to suck up the fact we aren’t, as usual, going to see significant snowfall Xmas week. We should also remember that we were staring down a fairly cruddy canyon of poor output before it quite rapidly flipped. I think open minds might be required to get through the rest of the season.

While I get that the ramping can be misleading, the hostile one liners shooting folks down are pretty unpleasant. There’s no prize for being right or wrong. 

Continue (civilised) model discussion below.

 

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[Model output discussion - winter proper underway]

Dissecting every single frame of every single run... this way madness lies. We went through all this 10-12 days ago. The blowtorch didn't turn up and plenty of places had a snow event. 

Compare like with like, (ie the JH method)  and just let the trend evolve. Honestly you'll lose fingernails otherwise.

[SE and East Anglia generalweather discussion 08/11/2017 onwards]

Starting to see fresh accumulations, which is surprising given how har it rained earlier. You can see it starting to build up on the boy’s trampoline cover.

[SE and East Anglia generalweather discussion 08/11/2017 onwards]

Snowing quite heavily here in Shenfield. DP 0 and the temp has gone from 2.9c to 1.4, so falling away quite nicely. It did rain pretty hard earlier an we have quite a lot of lying snow still. Going to be horrific if(when) it freezes I think. Toddler isn’t feeling well so I’m at home with him and we are under blankets watching Xmas movies. Stay safe and warm everyone!

[SE and East Anglia generalweather discussion 08/11/2017 onwards]

We actually have fog here at the moment. So 4 inches on the ground maybe and freezing fog....

[SE and East Anglia generalweather discussion 08/11/2017 onwards]

Schools are shut tomorrow here too. We have a pretty treacherous maze of country lanes though, and the compacted snow has made most of the cars trying to leave our road haven’t been especially successful.

I know it probably seems a bit pathetic that there is disruption and closures but people genuinely can’t drive safely in conditions like this because they are so rare. If you take the high school near us with 1000 students, that’s potentially 1000 road accidents waiting to happen. You can imagine on the flip side the kind of grief that school would get if any of their students or teachers were injured in a car accident in snow because they had to get to work.

For me, I’ve got to make the call to either get my usual 6.30am bus to get to the station, or work from home. I’m probably going to take the latter, given I’m fortunate enough to have the option.

if we get a drop more snow it’s be most welcome!

[SE and East Anglia generalweather discussion 08/11/2017 onwards]

It’s snowed pretty much non stop in Shenfield since 7am. We’ve got maybe 10cm so far? Temp is 1.5c with -1 dp. Still coming down pretty hard now..

[SE and East Anglia generalweather discussion 08/11/2017 onwards]

We’re doing well in Brentwood. ☃️

[SE and East Anglia generalweather discussion 08/11/2017 onwards]

2 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Lol

Hows your luck, no weather down here then nothing to see - 

Miss out on the Yellow Wind and Yellow Snow and in the Void!

You can come up here for brunch dude, we’ve got the Brentwood elevation ?

[Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn]

13 minutes ago, KTtom said:

Just as a matter of interest...is there a reason there isn't a winter model thread...strange were all posting in  a 'potential cold end to autumn thread' ? Come on mods

Sorry, but for starters,  it’s Friday night and it’s work enough pruning the off topic stuff without worrying about a thread title being a week old.

Moreover when we change threads, we have to lock the current one which means anyone in the middle of posting (and we’re getting several posts a minute at the moment) will lose what they’ve gone to the effort of typing out. Sometimes it’s quite a lot.

Hopefully the title isn’t affecting everyone’s overall experience of the thread generally. 

 

[Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn]

Guys. Please.....

I don’t need to be moderating willy comments. I’m not without a sense of humour but that stuff is perfect for the banter thread. 

Tonight’s visitor traffic is massive - I’d hate for a newcomer’s first visit to a model discussion thread involve school playground stuff.

thanks! ?

 

[SE and East Anglia generalweather discussion 08/11/2017 onwards]

Well hi local gang! Just through I’d drop in and wave and all that. Welcome to newcomers! Thought it would feel a lot warmer than it actually does given this is a ‘mild’ blip. I fear we are going to have a bit of a cold shock end of the week with the wind swinging round. But looking forward to what transpires nonetheless!

[Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn]

300 people online don’t come here to read mudslinging. If you take issue with a post then report it.  Or Pm the member involved. 

 

This isn’t the place for ego wars.

[Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn]

Morning cold (and not so cold) chasers!

Queries relating to imby <that’s ‘in my back yard> for the uninitiated will be moved to the regional threads. Also sweeping statements. One liners met office discussion, the health of your goldfish etc etc will also be moved elsewhere,

if you see a post you don’t think belongs in here, PLEASE DON’T REPLY. Just hit ‘report’ and one of us will deal with it. More off topic replies = more posts to move and delete. We aren’t full time mods, we just dip in and out between our real life jobs, so pruning every o/t post is a massive task. Please try and report rather than reply! 

Thanks a mil!