[Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?]

1 minute ago, chionomaniac said:

Anyone fancy a RELOAD!!!!

Oh go on then........

[Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?]

I think that’s enough with the personal comments don’t you?

If you are concerned about a post or think someone is breaking forum guidelines then please report the post. As much as you think you’re trying to help, people going vigilante mod on here and ‘sticking up for/calling out’ posters actually causes us a whole lot of work and some of us have day jobs y’know? It’s going to be nuts in here again today I imagine.

also it’s not even 9am, everyone get a coffee and breathe. 

 

[Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?]

As mentioned in big letters a few pages back, this isn't the Countryfile/BBC/MetO broadcast autopsy thread. I'm sure we've got one somewhere - please use it, otherwise we just end up on a massive derailed tangent,

Thanks!

 

 

[Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?]

I think some folks need to just step back from the frame by frame run by run panic. To a newcomer <waves at the 400+ folks reading> some of the comments in the last 30 minutes would make anyone think the whole thing is a bust. Think i'm being dramatic? take a look at some of the posts.

There does, and I mentioned it before, seem to be a fine line between those who relish in the 'poor chart' and like to give a 'dose of realism' - and only seem to post in these circumstances. It seems a bit sad that you'd only want to come on here just to enjoy other people's anxiety and disappointment.

It's one run. There's a lot of hours between now and next weekend. I have no doubt it'll swing to and fro a few more times before we get this cold in.

Play nice! 

 

 

 

[Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?]

<peeps in><thanks weather gods for good output this morning>

Please continue to keep it friendly - there’s oodles of space in the Ramps thread and a dedicated cold spell thread thread to wax lyrical on winters gone by, it’s not that those comments aren’t interesting, they are! They just tend to derail the discussion

[Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?]

5 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

have you been on the prosecco jo? 

Nope. I’m a scotch drinker. ANYWAY.  Let’s just enjoy this, it’s Saturday, there’s 300 people reading tonight, itching for an easterly that might just bloody come off and I don’t want to wake up tomorrow, wading through treacle and doom because the “00z isn’t as good as the pub run’ for the fifth day running.  That’s all! 

 

[Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?]

Can we just turn the computers off and just all sit happy with what we’ve seen tonight? No more torturing ourselves with the next set of runs......

eeeeeep!

[Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?]

Sorry, I just thought I’d walked into the moans threa.. oh wait. <passes around a big bag of grips> No sooner do we get a cold spell within sight it astonishes me that time and time again some people seem hell bent on being the first to find signs of it unravelling. Is there some kind of prize for this I don’t know about? We don’t live in Siberia. We are never going to have three month of bitter cold. We all know this!

It’s one run. 48 hours ago some of you were dismissing the idea of an easterly entirely based on the output. 

Maybe when the hangovers and cruddy moods have lifted this will improve the quality of posts?

[Model Moans, Ramps and Banter]

If I wanted to look at turds and casual drug use I’d be watching trainspotting.

Please do a girl a favour and keep it on topic?

 

[Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?]

Like really, enough!

[Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?]

Posts are vanishing faster than the output is flipping at the moment.

If your comment isn't model related, is a dig, a moan, a gripe, or something that <probably> involves a gif, either spare yourself the time typing it, or PLEASE post it in the right thread.

There is a PM function for you to chat to other members. Calling out off topic or unpleasant posts  isn't helpful, because more people then reply to the off topic post which creates a cascade of work, very similar to the cascade I've just had to remove. If you don't like a post, control your inner keyboard warrior and just report it.

Thanks!

[Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?]

Before this descends into another Will it/Won’t jt cascade of doom, let’s just not eh?

BBC don’t approve the weather as it’s about to be delivered. It’s a broadcast of an analysis. 

Anyone getting fixated on a dead-cert  solution of what’s 6+ days out is on a fools errand, and it’s not reasonable that we hold anyone to account, bbc or otherwise for interpretations that  are a statistical minefield.

If non-easterly charts fill you with Joy, then great, but please don’t fill this thread up with goady crap or you won’t be posting in here anymore. Same goes for those people who just seem to take pleasure in the disappointment of others. If that’s your thing, this isn’t the place for you.

[Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?]

And exactly the same as last night we are still seeing the rapid and varied solutions between runs. So this evening isn’t showing what this morning was. Is anyone actually surprised at this development? We have followed the same routine for around six days now, and it is still unresolved.

There is no need to get emotionally invested into one run. Give it 13 hours it’ll change again.

Please please use the banter thread for the snowmageddon/bbq commentary, I have read a huge amount of contradicting posts since 5pm alone, and whilst all opinion and interpretation is welcome, the over analysis of one frame is not an accurate representation of how this next 10 days will pan out. It is impossible (to the unjaded and uninitiated at least)  to work out who is posting for attention and who is posting actual scientific reasoning.

 

[Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?]

Hello, let’s not start poking each other with sticks please. Far too early for all that. Thanks.

[Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?]

I’ve just had to remove about ten posts.

 

this isn’t the ‘who got rid of Fergie thread’ and nobody gets any points for that kind of commentary, so can we just drop it and continue with the models.

if your post is still hidden, it’s probably not on topic. There are an enormous number of posts that are under review, please be patient.

[Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?]

Is it safe to look in yet? Do I need to hit the scotch on a school night, or are we going to be able to all behave like civil measure humans?

Please keep commentary civil- and the voodoo/gut feeling/bumsqueezing sorcery one liner stuff in banter....

?

[Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?]

One set of 6z = party poppers at 7.30am, wax the sledge! stockpile coal...! 

One set of 12z = nope, it’s all gone wonky, we told you so, get your bulbs planted.  This is the very definition of model volatility. We knew it would happen, so let’s not get hung up when it flips the ‘wrong’ way. It will!

*sigh* it’s going to be a long week in here if folks are going to pick apart every.single.frame.

all bets are off beyond 120? No?

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 01/01/2018 onwards]

We’ve done alright here so far this winter. Put it this way, it’s the first time I’ve been able to use the sledge since ‘13 so I’ll take it!

For me anyway, it’s been far far better than the few years of constant gales and storms and unending rain. I think I had a 4 year stretch of replacing either tiles, fences or guttering every winter because of the wind.

[Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?]

Just model discussion please.

I’m aware that the SSW is the topic of the hour but has anyone checked out what’s happening in the ‘reliable’? And has that output been affected?

I said the same yesterday morning, let the SSW happen and then start worrying about the detail - the models are producing a whole range of possible outcomes, none of which will be bang in and at this stage I don’t think there is any merit in writing off any of the solutions. There’s also no point in getting emotional at weather that’s being modelled for 10 days time off the back of an event which hasn’t concluded yet.

If you do want to ramp or doom monger; there’s a special corner of Netweather to do it in the moans and ramps thread. Please remember there will be lots of new and guest posters reading, driven here by the SSW chat. Let’s not put them off for life eh? 

Be nice.

ta.

[Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?]

Suspect it’s going to be busy in here today, so because I’m up making coco pops pre 8am with the kids, just some gentle reminders before I spend my day moving posts and asking why and being PM’d:

•there’s a thread for bbc discussion. Please use it. I’ve said numerous times before that the bbc don’t ‘sign off’ the weather. It’s another opinion, just because they put it on tv, doesn’t mean it’s a done deal 

•SSW is in v early stages so there will be output variation run to run. As a few have mentioned, it’s the overall signal to be looking for, a theme. Not the best or worst charts each suite.

•There’s also a thread for met office commentary

• Please try and keep it on topic. Posts that start ‘I know this is off topic, but’ will be sent to the great virtual incinerator in the sky- if you can’t post it in the right place, I won’t be moving it to the right place. It’s just going to disappear.

• Sarcasm and digs and general unpleasantness won’t be tolerated. If you don’t like something, report it. If you strongly disagree with something or someone, then don’t make it personal. Debate is healthy and good. Shooting people down with misery or belittling with ramping isn’t. If you have an opposing view, use data and evidence to make your case. Given this discussion by its very nature, it’s underpinned by science and data, not gut feelings, tingly toes, spidey senses, weather stones, seaweed, the daily express or any other voodoo. If you’re into that kind of thing  I’m sure I can find you or even make you a wizardry thread. Just not in here.

• just again, be nice to each other. It’s the weather, it’s a hobby. Nobody in here is responsible for what it’s doing. Lots of people take time out of their day to post good analysis, please respect that.

•snowing in my back yard stuff belongs in the regionals.

<Deep breath> aaaaaaaaand GO. 

 

 

[Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?]

And I think for the nine zillionth time today we just need to remember the actual warming even hasn’t actually occurred yet. So let’s be a bit rational about hanging on every single frame and taking each run as the next gospel. We’re in reasonably unchartered (or at least unusual) waters now. Let it unfold folks.

also be nice, because being unkind and snippy isn’t cool. 

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 01/01/2018 onwards]

Snowing in Camden!

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 01/01/2018 onwards]

Some very shelf like style cloud action happening just to the NE of me at work...(Camden)

No snow tho :'(

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 01/01/2018 onwards]

Still falling as snow here! Not quite enough for the sledge sadly

[Model output discussion - mid-winter]

It’s not the bbc thread. Broadcast forecasts have their own thread.

FWIW - the bbc don’t ‘sign off’ the weather.