trisnow

I'm trying to understand a little more but would I be reading this right BFTP if I said after looking at the Model Camparison images for 120hrs and 144hrs that this update from the MO would more favour what the images from the ECM is showing rather than the GFS? The little I understand about these charts tells me that the ECM has more bars packed closer together which would fall in line with this comment from the MO? "with rain most persistent in northern and western parts of the UK, where strong, perhaps gale force winds are possible at times. Turning colder from the northwest through Thursday, with snow becoming increasingly likely across hills." So is the MO leaning towards the ECm more?

Think MO have just updated: UK Outlook for Wednesday 18 Jan 2012 to Friday 27 Jan 2012: Showers or longer spells of rain on Wednesday, with rain most persistent in northern and western parts of the UK, where strong, perhaps gale force winds are possible at times. Turning colder from the northwest through Thursday, with snow becoming increasingly likely across hills. Drier, brighter spells are most likely across the south and east of the UK. Conditions late next week and through the weekend remaining unsettled with a risk of wintry showers, especially in the north and over high ground, and also a risk of overnight frosts in quieter spells. The changeable conditions are expected to continue through into the last week of January with some spells of milder, wetter weather and also spells of brighter, colder and showery weather with frosty nights. Updated: 1129 on Fri 13 Jan 2012

As a noob, it appears to me looking at these charts in comparison http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=modelcomp;sess= that it ECM is out on its own? The latest image for 13th 00z seems to show the MO going the same route as the GFS @ 120hrs? Is that what we are wondering about at the moment? As to what will happen after that time frame or have I completely misunderstood all of this conversation....

Sorry this has prob been asked a million times already but what time do the models come out? For both ECM and GFS please?

Oops, sorry on my phone. Meant to ask Nick, for the noobs, what do the differences show us please?

Sorry but what does this mean? I can't work out what is being shown here :S

Wow! I don't know if the wind made it look that way but I didn't kmow it was actually possible for that much rain to fall in so many minutes. Sheffield just got peed on! Bit time! Exciting to see after the dross of the Autumn

Ah right thanks, it does look pretty evident there looking at the pic where the snow just stops. So if that Euro High hadn't been there for so long then all that lovely snow may have just carried further and further eastwards to our shores?? I'd like to think so!

Yup, me too. Helped me understand a little more I think as a complete newbie. Cheers John!

I know pretty much sod all about the weather and terminology etc but have seen people talking about a Euro High? Is that what has caused the snow to just pretty much stop where it has done? Scandi and Western Europe etc?

Even as an "electricity bill payer" who has no money it has still gone down like a lead balloon! lol

I have to say it is so frustrating reading your posts sometimes Polar Low. This is the second post in as many days where you have written the whole of December off, how can you do that? The models aren't showing that so why keep stating it as if it is fact?

So if the ECM hasn't latched onto something right now then we can write December off?? Really? This early?

*sticks fingers in ears so can't hear what November13 is saying as doesn't want to believe it* I'll pretend you didn't post that and carry on belieing this quote thanks! lol

Bit of a ramp but I remembered the story of the Pink Footed Geese arriving early so thought I would check when they arrived in Scotland this year and it looks like it was a few days early than last. 12th September this year, 14th September last year and 2nd October 2009. They are getting earlier! Must mean we are in for another cold 'un.

Lots of traffic cams with snow falling just east of Moscow http://www.doroga.tv/nnov/cameras/#c/56.31106209,43.98900032/z/14

Ah ok, thanks RD, a lot less than I thought then. That gives me hope then still for November to change a lot.

Do the MO calculate an Autumn CET for these three months? Are we expecting it to come in quite high overall if they do? Gotta be up there with the warmest with November not showing too many signs of throwing us some cold?

Can I ask, what is the reliable timescale for what we can pretty much say the weather is "as nailed as can be" going on the models? Is it a week or even two weeks maximum? Or can we confidently say looking at the models that with around 20 days to go, November is looking to carry on pretty much the same right upto the end albeit slightly cooler?

anything interesting in the 12z's?

Hi ukpaul, Sorry but what does this mean please?

Many thanks John. Will take a look and will add details now.

Using the same (slightly crude pixel count method) the ice cover is doing really well after the really low minimum it reached! 2008 = 0.0493 2011 = 0.0491 2006 = 0.0487 2005 = 0.0483 2009 = 0.0479 2004 = 0.0478 2010 = 0.0476 2007 = 0.0459 Actually, scrub that Ice cover as this seems to state otherwise..

Snow cover percentage last few years for Nov 5th 2009 = 0.1016% 2004 = 0.1012% 2006 = 0.1001% 2011 = 0.0966% 2008 = 0.0890% 2005 = 0.0819% 2010 = 0.0777% 2007 = 0.0742%

Thanks chio, wolves and stew for the replies So in short, chart watching and understanding is a minefield! I'll look at some of the posts as a "Parliamentary Session" political debate set up then and hope the outcome benefits me as a Cold party member.