LincolnSnowstorm

October 16, 2014

South of our usual concerns but the biggest change on the noaa asiaeurope chart is China getting a large dump of snow, also causing problems in Nepal http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-29625605

October 16, 2014

That looks great! My concern is if snow cover increases until about the last week of October and then we get loses due to southerly winds.

I've noticed that the models are keen to introduce a southerly in western Asia with warmer uppers towards the end of the run.

Yes that would be bad, it happened in 2010 and nearly blew our chances... October 31 and Nov 9th

Must be more factors involved though, than a huge negative amount of southerly snow cover.

October 16, 2014

http://www.webcamsinnorway.com/webcams.php

http://honningsvag.livecam360.com/

First snow of the winter in the North Cape.

Lovely 360 Cam and Road cam link J10 , looks like a real special placehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Honningsv%C3%A5g would be good for the snow fix if the forecast improves http://www.yr.no/place/Norway/Finnmark/Nordkapp/HonningsvÃ¥g/long.html

October 16, 2014

It's amazing how quickly Lonyearbyen is losing sunlight this week; by 2pm it's clearly getting dusky, not sure how much longer this will be giving me my daily snowfix. I'll have to move onto some of your other spots which should be getting snowed-up by thenL(

L( no need to be down http://longyearbyen.kystnor.no?t=2014-10-14+07-30-00 Only ten days left for the sunhttp://www.timeanddate.com/sun/norway/longyearbyen but they have there are good flood lights for snowy lamp post watching http://www.yr.no/sted/Norge/Svalbard/Longyearbyen/time_for_time.html

Just waiting now (hopefully not to long) for the great webcam pics that are bound to happen in Iceland, Sweden, Finland , The Alps etc etc

October 15, 2014

Most amount of snow in the SAI area since 1999. http://www.weerwoord.be/uploads/121020141327300.png

Would be great to have a few more updates...

October 15, 2014

Here is some webcam pics to wet the appetite

Artic North low sun at lunch time.

Norway North

Norway middle 62Â°05'38.9"N 8Â°07'46.7"E

Norway South Rain or snow!

October 15, 2014

Filled in a bit but some melt today

Its still looking good ,hoping that we can say in a couple of weeks that the SAI part of the winter puzzle has given its best shot at getting us a winter different to last year.

October 13, 2014

How is the comparison against 2012's snow and ice buildup at this stage?

The reason I ask is the Autumn of that year at least in terms of signs from the natural environment such as fruit & nut loadings on trees for instance are similar in 2014. Most probably not a strong scientific connection but fascinating nonetheless. Pattern matching to me is becoming much more difficult under our annual extreme climatic variations but its still fun to undertake it.

Here that, as always interesting comparison gtltweather enjoy

Ice now then

Snow now

Snow then

It's worth keeping an eye on this site in the coming weeks:

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-nh.php?run=2014101212&var=SNOWCPER_sfc&hour=192

The latest projection shows some decent forecast gains South of 60N across particularly Western Russia/North-Eastern Europe:

NH_SNOWCPER_sfc_192.gif

SK

Hopefully, still wriggle room for an upgrade

October 12, 2014

I need to stop making these comparisons but

2010

2014 -

Well ahead on snow.

Worried about that as that's what we saw this point last year, need it to have more sticking power!

Here is last year to compare all ready for the crazy Atlantic!

October 12, 2014

The Ice chart is looking promising No sign of the red line joining the its blue,green and orange friends any time soon.

October 11, 2014

How much of these gains are below 60N? That;s whats important in Eurasia.

A useful amount, I think for the date.

October 11, 2014

Whoops, sorry LS you are quite right.

I was looking at the big red blob at the end of Siberia, and assumed it was Alaska after all the press reports and bloggs on here about it being very warm at the moment.

I hadn't seen any reports that it had cooled back to normal with average amounts of snow around.

My only excuse was I didn't have my reading glasses on at the time and I was sitting in the lovely sunshine we are experiencing today.

Sorry for the blooper

MIA

Chill no worries MIA the big red Siberian blob will get smaller in the next few days, Yes Alaska could do better but its early days and Canada does seem to be more than compensation.

Talking of compo perhaps some in these 2010 charts

Alaska -

Canada +

Russia -

...this could lead to something!

October 10, 2014

Lincolnsnowstorm.....

What has happened to Alaska this season, perhaps most Americans are going there rather than Florida (LOL)

Also - it is easy to see that the shipping route around Russia is now close.

Looks normal to me others may have more detail.

October 10, 2014

^{Ok its looking good out there. Some daylight left in Svalbard http://www.lookr.com/lookout/1350084604-Sveagruva#action-play-day}

^{A bit of snow due in Lapland and the Northern Hemisphere more than keeping up with 2010 benchmark}

^{http://www.yr.no/place/Finland/Laponia/Rovaniemi/ http://international.rovaniemi.fi/en/webcam}

October 6, 2014

Don't forget the ice, we want to see that grow as well.

I do worry about that ice though, we need to see that picking up.

Chill throwoff its still early days, just watch the chart get steeper over the next few weeks it always does http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/Sea_Ice_Extent_v2_L.png

October 6, 2014

Perm - 600kg east of Moscow forecast for next 2 weeks: http://www.gismeteo.ru/city/weekly/4476/

Archangelsk - 500kg east of Central Finland: http://www.ilmeteo.it/meteo-europa/Archangelsk

heavy snow

October 6, 2014

From the comments i have been reading regarding the SAI on here ....I`m understanding the we do not want to see snow advancing westerly just yet , until the last couple of weeks of October.

Well folks so far as the update shows... lots of snow cover still in eastern Russia and not much progress westerly... a good thing i suppose... however there is a low/trough about to drop into mid Russia that will probably increase snow cover in a more westerly direction

Saturday Sunday

cursnow_asiaeuropesat.gif cursnow_asiaeuropesun.gif

If you squint really, really hard you might just spot the pixel on the Cairngorms too , failing that, go get your binoculars

Ok put your spec hunting binoculars down for a minute and enjoy what happens when the 'shnow..its' the fan! Would love too know what going to pull the Ukrainian bendy bus out. at 11.40 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yK2Deik2oQA

October 5, 2014

Morning,

Heres the link , which someone kindly gave me about a week ago http://www.natice.noaa.gov/ims/

heres the update too.

Friday Saturday

cursnow_asiaeuropefri.gif cursnow_asiaeuropesat.gif

it is possible of some westward advancing in the next few days as the GFS +72 is showing.

gfsnh-2-72.png gfsnh-0-72.png gfsnh-1-72.png

Still looking hopeful 6 hours later

October 5, 2014

Just a little look into projected snowfall to our east in the very near future....Quite a lot of the white stuff western russia and eastern russia.

T+150 gfsnh-2-150.png

Then deep into FI

T+250 gfsnh-2-252.png

any update on this or a hyper link ,I cant find the charts and it would be nice to see a hint of progress.

On a different topic...is the ice refreeze doing well? around Greenland it looks nice and thick to me http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/

October 5, 2014

The next week looks to extend the snow cover in the important below 60 degrees sector.

GFS 12z forecast to +192.

Talking of importance,I see the 0.8 Correlations importance peeks at 53 degrees north (if it works ) http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/store/10.1029/2011GL049626/asset/supinfo/grl28662-sup-0002-fs01.pdf?v=1&s=25752f79fe57b690307343baed987015d8cd24c4

But that's based over all longitudes so it must be even higher for us as it seems to snow so easily around that latitude in the North American continent..edit maybe I'm muddled.

October 4, 2014

Based on the Cohen Theory - it is the second half of October when you want to see rapid snow cover advancement westwards to help build one building block for increasing chances of colder conditions during winter. 2010 and 2012 saw rapid snow cover advancement westwards towards western Russian border and over Scandinavia, whereas last year whilst we saw a rapid snow cover advancement first half of October, it ground to halt mid month making no further advancement across the Urals . Indeed the Urals tend to be a major barrier, you want to see snow west of the Urals.

I would love to know why 2010 snow advancement was so good...but also able to be so bad; for example 5th Nov

Is this in the last few days?

yes

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/breaking/chi-20141004-story.html

http://www.nbcchicago.com/news/local/Snow-Spotted-in-Chicago-as-City-Prepares-for-Record-Temps-278112851.html

October 3, 2014

Greenland is so cold no wonder the ice is growing there.. wonder if it will head for Iceland again this winter? Super snow there as well http://www.yr.no/place/Greenland/Other/Danmarkshavn/hour_by_hour_detailed.html

Thinking its too early and still not cold enough for the coming Russian snow to make an inpact on the S.A.I but at lest it should look pretty for a few days.

Also like the way the snow points at and dreams of getting to Texas guess it will have to wait at least a month before making a proper effort!

October 1, 2014

Striking how much snow there was in Canada in 2010. Much more than the other years you showed. At least this year we have a decent amount of snow showing in Canada.

Maybe more than 2010 now! .....update for Tuesday.