[Snow And Ice In The Northern Hemisphere Autumn/Winter 2014]

cursnow_asiaeurope (1).gifpost-15601-0-09846500-1411826297_thumb.gif

 

To be honest Lincoln snow storm these 2 images are not a world apart from each other , considering the time difference ..... 

That's right I'm don't think I'm getting my hopes too high for that in a couple of weeks then the  next target... snow in Scandinavia and continuous  back to Siberia maybe that's asking for too much at the end of the month  so eyes on the first target.

 

stage 2 End of October

 

[Snow And Ice In The Northern Hemisphere Autumn/Winter 2014]

Just a little look into projected snowfall to our east in the very near future....Quite a lot of the white stuff western russia and eastern russia. 

 

T+150  gfsnh-2-150.png

 

 

Then deep into FI 

 

 

T+250 gfsnh-2-252.png

Interesting stuff, with the cold pools starting to show up on weather charts and now your projected snowfall chart.

I'm thinking (searching for   )  maybe  the weather gods will give us a picture similar to or better than  2010 over the next few weeks with Siberia , Russia  and Scandinavia getting a quality amounts of snow to help the snow advance index along. 

 

Here's the benchmark

[Snow And Ice In The Northern Hemisphere Autumn/Winter 2014]

We are still in the 'In between period' where snow gains are very susceptable to snow loss the next day. But it does look good seeing some of that white stuff in Scandi.

I'm thinking maybe it gone beyond that now for Eastern Siberia ..I maybe wrong  http://www.yr.no/place/Russia/Sakha/Mirnyy/long.html

[Snow And Ice In The Northern Hemisphere Autumn/Winter 2014]

Couldn't resist a peek at Rovaniemi; while it's looking rather drizzly and damp there, Lordi Square at least treated me to 1 degree showing on its digital temperature thingy: http://international.rovaniemi.fi/en/webcam

 

Ah yes Reefseeker very festive looking!

 

 

 

 

Also maybe worth a peek in the morning at this slide show.

http://www.webcam-4insiders.com/de/Wetter-Kleine%20Scheidegg/1026-Kleine%20Scheidegg-Wetter.php

[Snow And Ice In The Northern Hemisphere Autumn/Winter 2014]

Mostly gone from lower elevations now 

Damm it!   they are having a mini heat wave

I'll be giving up on old faithful if Fridays upper level reinforcements don't turn up   http://www.yr.no/place/Norway/Svalbard/Longyearbyen/long.html

http://longyearbyen.livecam360.net/

[Snow And Ice In The Northern Hemisphere Autumn/Winter 2014]

Spitzbergen looking resplendent during sunset. 

 

http://sveaspitzbergen.livecam360.com/flash/main.php

nice and as its below freezing all the time now that's not going anywhere soon.

[Snow And Ice In The Northern Hemisphere Autumn/Winter 2014]

surprised this snowfall in Kiruna, Sweden went unnoticed on here.

 

he

Sorry I'm slacking! Eastern Finland and Norway for the next webcam targets me thinks  http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/scand?over=none&symbols=snow&type=snow.next3days http://www.yr.no/place/Finland/Eastern_Finland/Ilomantsi/ may improve.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/scand?over=none&symbols=snow&type=snow.next3to6days

[Bárðarbunga and Askja - Volcanic Activity]

I survived the Market Rasen 5.2 in 2008. :-)

60 miles or so from the epicentre, but a very odd sensation nonetheless.

In a straight line was it only 17 or so miles here, wife though a truck had hit the house! worst for me was it sounded like millions of  mini jack hammers, echoing very slowly away while being in a huge cave. .Very spooky until thoughts came of 'its just a earthquake not a nasty distant bomb'  sorry off topic to bard.

[Snow And Ice In The Northern Hemisphere Autumn/Winter 2014]

Big contrast between now and 2010 ,hoping the action picks up away from the US side and gives the SAI a chance

 

Gif slow to start

 

Early days and first proper blob...

[Snow And Ice In The Northern Hemisphere Autumn/Winter 2014]

Is this years line expected to join the others in late October... just curious

[Snow And Ice In The Northern Hemisphere Autumn/Winter 2014]

With regards to snow advance index (SAI) the key finding correlating with AO is illustrated by this graph in the supporting material from Cohen & Jones 2011 paper - http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/store/10.1029/2011GL049626/asset/supinfo/grl28662-sup-0002-fs01.pdf?v=1&s=25752f79fe57b690307343baed987015d8cd24c4

 

The Eurasian October snow to look out for between 0-180°E is particularly in the range of latitudes approximately 51-57°N peak influence about 53°N

I live around the area of peak influence then, will be looking hoping for a super fast SAI next month.

[Snow And Ice In The Northern Hemisphere Autumn/Winter 2014]

There is a belief that the extent of snow in October has a bearing on the type of winter western Europe experiences.

I should of course add, it is but one variable that has to be used when trying to predict a winter pattern. There is something I think somewhere on the Met O website about these factors.

 

googling showed the link below

http://www.aer.com/news-events/blog/snow-advance-index-new-tool-predicting-winter%E2%80%99s-severity

 

I found nothing quickly on the UK Met site but I have never found it easy trying to get into the enormous amount of data they store!

Nice link john showing the 50/50 nature of our warm and cold winters, I  notice the WSI is surprisingly close to the SAI especially for very cold were it over takes it.

[Snow And Ice In The Northern Hemisphere Autumn/Winter 2014]

How much does snow cover over Siberia and Eastern Europe affect our winter weather?

Imo a small amount because the Atlantic dominates most winters, and so our weather more than the north or east.

If there is a huge pool of cold and snow to tap into my hopes are it spreads west!    

[Snow And Ice In The Northern Hemisphere Autumn/Winter 2014]

A nice snowy start to the day in Svalbard

 

lyb_big.jpg

Death taxes and .....lovely Svalbard early snow so dependable in this world of fail.

[Snow And Ice In The Northern Hemisphere Autumn/Winter 2014]

On a slightly lighter note  On 17th Sep afternoon it may be  worth a looking at  http://www.snsk.no/longyearbyen.145587.en.html http://longyearbyen.livecam360.net/ because http://www.yr.no/place/Norway/Svalbard/Longyearbyen/hour_by_hour.html

[Snow And Ice In The Northern Hemisphere Autumn/Winter 2014]

Don't worry sunrise at 4.14 am this morning, 24 hour darkness is not till 26th October and the snowfall always looks best in the dockyard flood lights!

[Snow And Ice In The Northern Hemisphere Autumn/Winter 2014]

Looks to me there is more 3rd September positivity than any year going back to 1999 ...nice to see so early  http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_daily.php?ui_year=2014&ui_day=246&ui_set=2

 

We need separate threads for light and heavy snow comments/articles this one can go with the light stuff!

[Bárðarbunga and Askja - Volcanic Activity]

Another interesting read

 

http://volcanocafe.wordpress.com/2014/08/24/bardarbunga-nature-of-the-beast/

Superb link cheers

[Snow And Ice In The Northern Hemisphere Autumn/Winter 2014]

Cheers, is it not a bit futile worrying about this yet then?

Your right and even a strong extent increase in October does not mean a huge amount but it will be fun watching the progression of the season, seeing the ice make a recovery and getting a taste of what we could have in winter.

[Snow And Ice In The Northern Hemisphere Autumn/Winter 2014]

Looks slightly odd to me. Svalbard appears to be covered in snow, but a quick glance at a webcam shows it is not:

 

http://longyearbyen.livecam360.net

not a good resolution but like the webcam shows  not covered in snow

 

Never mind  there will be 11 hours less sunlight in 30 days and the temp will fall a long way so that should help

[General Volcanic Activity Thread!]

Very interesting update from Jon Freeman. The caldera is showing sign of lowering!

 

 

www.jonfr.com/volcano

 

Karyo

 

Basically saying if it happens it should be a big event....very interesting indeed.

[General Volcanic Activity Thread!]

http://baering.github.io/

 

if i am reading the  map right  the  movement  is  they near  the top

Sure for example  last 12 hours quakes over Mag.2

[General Volcanic Activity Thread!]

nice 3d visual...notice small quakes as shallow as 600 meters ...just a case of waiting for big ones. http://baering.github.io/

[General Volcanic Activity Thread!]

http://www.livefromiceland.is/webcams/bardarbunga

 

this is the cam for bardarbunga which is the main watch (its on the far right about half way up the screen)

 

cannot see it due to the weather

 

http://vedur2.mogt.is/kverkfjoll/webcam/index.php

 

the link above and the pictures i am watching is from

Kverkfjöll volcano

this is because earthquakes are high there too and so are the harmonics

 

sorry for the confusion

 

http://www.volcanodiscovery.com/kverkfjoell.html

 

info about the volcano above

So with one stage two and one stage four volcano do you think they are effecting each other and we could see two for the price one so to speak?

[Snow And Ice In The Northern Hemisphere Autumn/Winter 2014]

More snow!  

 

https://www.google.co.uk/maps/place/Kyrgyzstan/@42.3265046,78.5446978,3a,30.7y,359.56h,81.23t,359.67r/data=!3m5!1e4!3m3!1s3504940829174886291!2e3!3e9!4m5!1m2!2m1!1smap!3m1!1s0x3897381dfce927f3:0x281058b74e88c433!6m1!1e1